Brownstein makes prediction on impact of RFK Jr.'s Trump endorsement

TO TOTALITARIANISM EARLIER IN THE DAY WHEN ANNOUNCING HIS WITHDRAWAL, KENNEDY SAID THAT HE'S BEEN SHUNNED BY THE MEDIA MY POLL NUMBERS REACHED AT TIMES IN THE HIGH 20s THE DNC ALLIED MAINSTREAM MEDIA NETWORKS MAINTAIN A NEAR PERFECT EMBARGO ON INTERVIEWS WITH ME DURING HIS TEN MONTHS PRESIDENTIAL CAMPAIGN IN 1992 ROSS PEROT RO GAVE THE 34 INTERVIEWS ON MAINSTREAM NETWORKS IN CONTRAST, DURING THIS 16 MONTHS SINCE I DECLARED ABC, NBC, CBS MSNBC, CNN COMBINED GAVE ONLY TO LIVE INTERVIEWS MAY THOSE NETWORKS SINCE INSTEAD RAN IT CONTINUOUS DELUGE WITH A HIT PCE IS WITH INACCURATE, OFTEN VILE ARE GEORGE'S AND DEFAMATORY SMEARS. >> SOME OF THOSE SAME NETWORKS D COLLUDED WITH THE D'ANNECY TO KEEP ME OFF THE DEBATE STAGE. >> I DON'T DOUBT THAT HE'S BEEN SHUNNED FOR THE RECORD. HE WAS MY GUEST HERE THREE TIMES. I HAVE ALL THE ANGRY EMAILS TO PROVE IT. ONE LIVE TO PRE-TAPED INTERVIEWS TO ACCOMMODATE HIS SCHEDULE. HE WAS ALSO INVITED TO JOIN US LIVE THIS MORNING AND I HOSTED HIS WIFE ACTRESS CHERYL HINES SO MIKE KENNEDY, THWART HARRIS'S CONVENTION MOMENTUM IN AN ELECTION OF INCHES. THE ANSWER IS MAYBE TAKE A LOOK. THIS IS NATE SILVER'S SILVER BULLET, AN AVERAGE OF 2024 GENERAL ELECTION POLLS. TO APPRECIATE THE POTENTIAL SIGNIFICANCE, JUST TAKE A LOOK AT NEVADA RIGHT AT THE BOTTOM OF YOUR SCREEN, HARRISON TRUMP, SEPARATED BY JUST 0.1% WITH KENNEDY PULLING 4.5% OF THE VOTE IN EVERY ONE OF THE SEVEN SWING STATES. KENNEDY'S VOTE SHARE EXCEEDS THE MARGIN SEPARATING HARRISON TRUMP, WHERE WILL THOSE VOTERS GO? OR WILL THEY JUST STAY HOME? IT BRINGS ME TO TODAY'S POLL QUESTION AT SMERCONISH.COM, DOES RFK JUNIOR'S WITHDRAWAL AND ENDORSEMENT OF DONALD TRUMP CHANGE THE RACE? JOINING ME NOW IS REPUBLICAN STRATEGIST ALEX CASTELLANOS, CO-FOUNDEOF PURPLE STRATEGIES AND CNN SENIOR POLITICAL ANALYST RON BROWNSTEIN, WHO IS ALSO SENIOR EDITOR AT THE ATLANTIC, HIS LATEST PIECE TITLED WHY THE BLUE WALL LOOMS SO LARGE. >> ALEX FIRST TO YOU, WHAT'S THE SIGNIFICANCE OF RFK JUNIOR? >> GETTING OUT AND CASTING HIS LOT WITH TRUMP WELL, I THINK IT'S IT'S IMPACTFUL, NOT JUST BECAUSE OF THE NUMBERS AND THE MATH, BUT BECAUSE OF THE NARRATIVES THAT DRIVES THE STORY IN THE CAMPAIGN FIRST OF ALL, IT'S TRUMP'S AN OUTSIDER GUESS WHO ELSE IS RFK? >> AND THAT MAKES I THINK MAKES KAMALA HARRIS A LITTLE BIT MORE OF THE OLDIDNSER, WHICH IS WHAT SHE'S TRYING TO GET AWAY FROM, WHAT SHE'S TRYING TO REINVENT HERSELF, NOT TO BE BUT THERE'S SOMETHING EVEN BETTER FOR TRUMP HERE. AND THAT'S THE K IN RFK THE KENNEDY BRAND THAT KENNEDY MYSTIQUE IT STILL REPRESENTS A BIT OF CAMELOT AND THE PROMISE OF WHAT COULD BE A PROMISE THAT WAS INTERRUPTED. AND I THINK MANY AMERICANS HOPE WILL BE AGAIN, TRUMP'S RUN OUT OF SCRIPT A LITTLE BIT. IT'S THE SAME OLD SHOW THAT IT USED TO BE. HOW DOES HE FRESHEN IT? HOW DOES HE? THE APPEAL TO NEW VOTERS? WELL, HE'S DONE A LITTLE BIT OF ILAN. HE'S REACHING OUT TO YOUNG BLACK MEN. BUT THIS GIVES HIM, I THINK A NEW, A NEW WAY TO EXPAND HIS STORY. SO I THINK TRUMP IS NOT A MATH CAMPAIGN GUY, RIGHT? HE'S NOT DISCIPLINED AS YOU JUST SAID, MICHAEL, HE'S ALL ABOUT DRIVING ENTERTAINMENT TO DRIVE A NARRATIVE, TO CREATE A STORY. AND THIS I THINK GIVES HIM SOMETHING NEW TO SAY RON BROWNSTEIN, YOUR THOUGHTS I THINK THE DEMOCRATS WOULD PAY TO HAVE CHARTER RFK TO THE SUBURBS OF PHILADELPHIA, DETROIT MILWAUKEE, MADISON, RALEIGH, CHARLOTTE, ATLANTA, AND PHOENIX. THEY CAMPAIGN WITH DONALD TRUMP TRUMP. DONALD TRUMP WITHOUT MUCH ATTENTION, HAS BEEN TELLING AUDIENCES, I WILL NOT GIVE A PENNY THAT'S HIS PHRASE OF FEDERAL FUNDING TO ANY SCHOOL THAT HAS ANY VACCINE MANDATE FROM KINDERGARTEN THROUGH COLLEGE WE KNOW FROM POLLING IN THE PEW RESEARCH CENTER LAST YEAR THAT THE SHARE OF REPUBLICANS AND WHITE EVANGELICALS, AND IT WAS 20 EVANGELICAL AUDIENCE TO TRUMP MADE THAT PLEDGE THAT SAYS PARENTS SHOULD BE ALLOWED TO SEND THEIR KIDS TO SCHOOL WITHOUT VACCINES, EVEN IF IT ENDANGERS THE HEALTH OF OTHER PEOPLE HAS DOUBLED. IN THE LAST FIVE YEAR TO 40% 70% OF ALL AMERICANS DISAGREE. THE SHARE OF COLLEGE EDUCATED SUBURBAN MOMS WHO DISAGREE, I'M BETTING IS CLOSER TO 90% WITH RFK. I THINK THERE IS THE POTENTIAL, ALTHOUGH IT'S A SMALL GROUP AND I'M NOT SURE HOW MANY OF THEM WILL VOTE YEAH, THAT SOME OF THOSE DISAFFECTED YOUNGER MAN WHO WERE PARKING WITH RFK MIGHT END UP WITH TRUMP IF THEY VOTE YOU KNOW WHAT THE TURNOUT RATE IS AMONG NON-COLLEGE, NON-WHITE MEN, 49%. YOU KNOW WHAT THE TURNOUT RATE IS AMONG COLLEGE EDUCATED WHITE WOMEN, AT 2% JOE BIDEN DID NOT HIT THE CEILING AMONG COLLEGE WHITE WOMEN. AND HE GOT ABOUT 60% OF THEM IN MICHIGAN AND PENNSYLVANIA IN 2020 WHITMER AND SHAPIRO GOT ABOUT 70% OF THEM. AND I JUST ADD THIS TO THE LIST WITH WE HAVE TO REMIND OURSELVES THAT THE DOBBS DECISION DID NOT HAPPEN UNTIL AFTER THE 2020 ELECTION BUT YOU ADD JOBS. YOU HAD GUNS, YOU ADD HARRIS IS JUST HER IDENTITY. AND I THINK THERE'S LATENT THREAT TO TRUMP OF BEING ASSOCIATED WITH ANTI-VACCINE EXTREMISM. THAT KENNEDY BRINGS TO HIM, I THINK ON BALANCE THIS WILL END UP BEING MORE PROBLEM IN AN ASSET OKAY. >> LET ME THEN LET ME GO BACK TO ALEX AND SAY ALEX, HOW WOULD YOU HANDLE HIM? WOULD YOU GIVE THEM A SEAT ON THE PLANE? ARE YOU ARE YOU PUTTING RFK JUNIOR OUT THERE WITH TRUMP AGAIN? AND IF SO, IN WHAT SETTINGS, BY THE WAY, MY $0.02, IF I MAY, I WATCHED ALL OF HIS SPEECH IN WITHDRAWING FROM THE RACE AND I WATCHED ALL OF THE TRUMP RALLY AND I KNOW THAT HE GETS PORTRAYED AND ACCURATELY SO AS BEING ANTI-VAX, BUT THERE'S MUCH MORE POPULISM IN HIS APPEAL. WHAT HE'S TALKING ABOUT HEALTHY FOOD WHEN HE'S TALKING ABOUT HEALTHY KIDS, WHEN HE'S TALKING ABOUT FOREVER WARS. AND I KNOW HE'LL BE CAST AMONG WHEN YOU DON'T KNOW. >> IT'S JUST CODE. >> YOU DON'T THINK HEALTHY CAN'T ASK CODE HEY, ALEX DO YOU RESPOND? >> I WANT TO LET ME GO AHEAD, ALEX. I SHOULD NOT HAVE INJECTED MYSELF. ALEX WE'RE HOW, WOULD I HANDLE. IT BUT BUT LET ME ALSO ADDRESS RON HERE I GUESS HE HAS NOTHING TO CONTRIBUTE AT ALL, WHICH IS WHY THE DEMOCRATS AND BIDEN AND HARRIS HAVE BEEN WORKING SO HARD TO SHUT THIS GUY DOWN TO CENSOR HIM, TO GET HIM OUT OF THE PROCESS. I THINK A LOT OF WHAT YOU'RE SAYING, SOME OF THE EXTREMISM IS BUILT IN TO HIS STOCK PRICE. BUT WHAT HE DOES IS HE CHANGES THE NARRATIVE FOR TRUMP HE THERE'S A YOUTHFUL OPTIMISTIC FACTOR TO THAT BRAND AND I WOULDN'T DISCOUNT THAT, RON, I THINK YOU'RE OFF BASED ON THAT. HOW WOULD I USE HIM? I'D PUT HIM ON THE PLANE, BUT NOT ALL THE TIME. I THINK I THINK ONCE A WEEK I DO AN EVENT WITH HIM, DO SOMETHING BIG AND POWERFUL AMERICANS ARE HUNGRY FOR POLITICIANS WHO BELIEVE IN SOMETHING OTHER THAN THEMSELVES. AND THAT'S CERTAINLY NOT KAMALA HARRIS. SHE JUST HAD A CONVENTION WHERE SHE NOT ONLY JUST IN PLASTIC SURGERY ON HERSELF, SHE LIKE RIPPED OUT ARE DNA AND INSERTED SOME NEW STUFF THEN DID NOTHING TO EXPLAIN TO THE AMERICAN PEOPLE WHY THAT OCCURRED IT'S LIKE SOMEBODY WHO'S JUST SHOWS UP ON YOUR DOORSTEP, BUT YOU'D NEVER AND JUST SAYS, OH, I'VE ALWAYS LOVED YOU WHEN THEY HATED YOU YESTERDAY AND GAVE, YOU KNOW, RATIONALE. SO VERY CYNICAL CAMPAIGN. AND I THINK THE MORE EXPOSURE IT THAT'S THE MORE SELFISH IT'S GOING TO BECOME. AND I THINK IF ON THE OTHER SIDE TRUMP CAN TAKE ADVANTAGE OF THE KENNEDY OPPORTUNITY TO EXPAND HIS VISION OF THE FUTURE, WHICH FRANKLY IS HARD FOR TRUMP ALL HE'S GOT ABOUT, SAY ABOUT THE FUTURE IS, LET'S MAKE AMERICA GREAT AGAIN. BUT NOW HE'S GOT SOMEBODY WHO CAN TALK ABOUT CHILDREN, CHILDREN'S HEALTH CLEAN WATER. WHEN'S THE LAST TIME YOU HEARD A REPUBLICAN CAMPAIGN TALKING ABOUT ANY OF THOSE THINGS? USE HIM, YOU'D ISSUE ASLI A LITTLE SEASONING ON THE SAW ON THE ON THE MAIN ENTREE. >> RON, I CAN SEE YOU WANT A RESPONSE? GO AHEAD AND TAKE IT, KEEP IT BRIEF. IF YOU CAN NO, I DON'T I DON'T REALLY WANT OUR RESPONSE. >> I JUST THINK THIS IS ABSURD. I MEAN, I THINK THIS IS A LUNATIC CONVERSATION WE'RE HAVING THERE'S REALLY NOTHING ELSE DOES WELL, WHAT WHY IS IT A MINUTE? >> WAIT A MINUTE, WAIT, WAIT, WAIT. I GOT TO SAY, IS IT A LUNATIC STATION? WHY IS IT GUYS HANG ON. WHY IS IT A LUNATIC CONVERSATION WHEN DEMOCRATS WIN, DEMOCRATS WENT TO SUCH GREAT LENGTHS TO KEEP HIM OFF BALLOTS TO ALEX'S POINT, IF THE GUY IS A LOON WHO WAS NEVER GOING TO REGISTER, WHY WERE THEY SO WORRIED ABOUT HIS PRESENCE? >> BECAUSE DONALD TRUMP CAN'T REACH 50%, AS YOU SAID, AND ANYTHING THAT ALLOWS HIM TO WIN WITH A LOWER NUMBER MAKES IT MORE LIKELY FOR HIM TO WIN I MEAN, ALEX, YOU KNOW JUST SAY I'VE ALWAYS HAD A LOT. I'VE ALWAYS HAD A LOT OF RESPECT FOR RON, CREATED THE IDEA OF THE BLUE WALL SO I WON'T I WON'T GO ANY FARTHER ON THAT. I'LL JUST SAY THAT KAMALA HARRIS HAS BROUGHT BACK WEEK DEMOCRATIC COALITION CERTAINLY BLACK WOMEN THE BLACK VOTE, YOUNGER PEOPLE. THERE'S EXCITEMENT, BUT SHE'S NOT MADE A DENT IN WHITE MEN AND SHE'S STUCK THERE. TRUMP IS STUCK GETTING ACROSS THE 50 YARD LINE BECAUSE HE DOESN'T REALLY HAVE A VISION OF THE FUTURE. HE'S LOST A LOT OF THE TIMES LOOKING BACK, THE KENNEDY MYSTIQUE THAT KENNEDY BRAND, THIS NEW GENERATION OF KENNEDY WHO IS AN OUTSIDER AS DEFINED BY IRAN AND THE DEMOCRATIC PARTY. I THINK DOUBLES DOWN ON TRUMP'S MESSAGE DID YOU HAVE CHANGE AND GIVE HELPS HIM WITH THE VISION? I THINK NARRATIVELY IT'S NOT JUST ABOUT IT'S NOT IT CHANGES WHO KENNEDY IS, AS WELL AS WHO TRUMP IS AND I THINK RON, I GOT IT, RON, I'VE GOT TO GET OUT IN 20 SECONDS. >> YOU TAKE THE FINAL COMMENT. GO AHEAD. >> DONALD TRUMP IS WRAPPING HIMSELF FURTHER IN KIND OF FRINGE VIEWS THAT WILL FURTHER ALIENATE THE WHITE-COLLAR SUBURBS THAT ARE HARRIS HIS BE CHANCE OF WINNING. AND THAT'S SHOWED IN 2022, DESPITE BROAD ECONOMIC DISCONTENT THAT THEY WERE