think polls predict elections think again the stock market might have the real answers in the latest Faceoff between vice president Kamala Harris and former president Donald Trump polls are showing a tight race but here's a Twist historically the S&P 500's performance from August to October has been a crystal ball for elections if the market goes up the incumbent party wins if it drops the Challenger Takes the Cake this trend has held true since 1984 why because stock prices reflect how happy or grumpy people are with the economy when voters are content they stick with the current party if not they vote for change but wait there's more the misery index which combines unemployment and inflation rates has also been a solid predictor if it drops the incumbent Pary is in good shape if it rises the challeng has got a shot so forget staring at poll numbers keep an eye on those stock tickers and the misery index that's where the real election magic happens