ESPN’s bold CFB Wk 1 preview: Colorado State vs Texas; Miami vs Florida; Virginia Tech vs Vanderbilt

inside the lines and talk about what we've got coming up this weekend and for that we welcome in Mackenzie Brooks our data analyst and uh wagering expert here emry Hunt's also joining us Mr football game plan all right guys let's start at the top Colorado State taking on number four Texas we had Colorado getting a win last night but Colorado State 31 and a half Point underdogs here the total set just shy of 60 points Texas of course the defending Big 12 Champions lost in the semis last year the college football playoff how do they start this season Mackenzie Brooks I think it's going to be a great start for this Texas team the model certainly loves this team we talk about this being really a passing offense here you see our projected score 46 to9 so we do like them to cover the spread I think a really interesting point to mention for this season is the two extra timeouts and the two-minute warning we get that will specifically be impactful for teams that like to pass a lot it really creates one more possession going into that half so that's why we do like the spread but I think the better way to play Texas weekend might be to take their team total and I know we're playing with a little bit of fire here I know we only have them projected for 46 with a 45 A2 line but to me this is about Arch Manning playing in that second half when it comes to the point of this game when they should be running the ball and running out the clock I think we'll have Arch Manning and there really auditioning to show that he can still also be a great quarterback getting his reps as well not to mention this Texas team already has two hurt running backs and I don't really think this game necessarily is worth affording you know a third or fourth running back as well so I think they keep keep us in the air and I think they play really strong football through four quarters giving Manning here you know I agree a lot of what McKenzie is talking about especially with regards to Texas's point total I'm a little bit worried on what Colorado state is going to do throwing the ball because they have one of the best receivers in the country and Tory Horton so I feel like with that experience in this offense and and dealing with a second half type situation where we have one of those vaunted backd door covers I can see Texas getting 40 ticks but I can also see a a situation where Colorado State comes up with a big touchdown or too late in the ball game and and ends up scoring 17 so I'm a little bit sketchy on this one well and Texas won all six home games last season by 26 points again the line 31 and a half all right let's talk about this battle for Florida 19 Miami 2 and a half Point favorites as they go to gainville to take on Florida the total here 54 and a half we're calling this the pressure Bowl because Mario Chris Ball and Billy Napier facing perhaps different kinds of pressure Napier probably the coach that is on the hottest seat as the season begins so McKenzie when you look at this game you look at this line very tight the pressure here with these two teams what's the play for you here and our models on a bit of an island here as well we love Florida in this specific game we have Florida winning this is not a typo 3226 win for the Gator at home look 247 Sports literally has Florida ranked higher in Talent than Miami 12th versus 14th I know that's not crazy numbers but it makes me feel less crazy for thinking that Florida can win this game you talk about Graham Merz he had great stats at home 17 passing touchdowns to two interceptions in the SEC and you look at cam Ward his stats weren't even that good and he was in the Pack 12 I think cam Ward can be a fantastic quarterback I think there's always a story where you can you know be a physical specimen be a great draft prospect but doesn't necessarily correlate to having an awesome season for example Anthony Richardson so there are a lot of things like returning production that are working for Florida this was one of the youngest teams in the country last year they ranked 20 4 and returning production typically they're somewhere around like 80th so I think that will start to show I think people are underrating this Florida team a little bit I think it's worth going with the spread here I understand the pressure of the game between both coaching staffs and both teams and the significance of this rivalry between two uh Interstate uh Interstate squads but for me it's bag for bag who has the best quarterback Miami who has the best stable of backs Miami who has the best Trio of receivers Miami and who has the best more consistent defensive line Miami so a lot of things are poting toward Miami in this ball game I do like Graham MERS I feel like he was vastly underrated last season and he will give them a chance because this is a week one opener and I've always talked about this where you had all spring and summer to prepare for this one opponent I can understand why the point spread is what it is and I can understand why this game is projected to be a lot close in the Sportsline model but where I disagree is who's going to win this ball game at some point Talent trumps everything and Miami has too much talent more so in my opinion than the Florida Gator didn't we say the same thing last week with Florida State when they were taking on Georgia Tech and Dublin here just I'm just putting it out there emry I'm just putting it out there but yeah the line is tight uh going to be a very interesting game uh Miami by the way to your point Emme 5-2 in this series since the year 2000 all right let's go down the board a bit here kenesa State at UTSA the road runners 24 and a half Point favorites this total just shy of 50 points first ever meeting between these two squads so what's the appeal in this one McKenzie you know me I like to find the value down the board here especially with the model I think this is simply a game that odds makers are overlooking you look at kennol State this is their first year as an FBS school which typically in your head you think oh they must be so good and then they usually end up going in exceeding expectations in the spot this is not the case for kenesa State here okay they were three and six in the FCS they rank really really low in returning production they have a win total of one and a half okay nothing is going right for this team I think the oddsmakers are saying oh it's an FBS team this is a 24 and a half point spread this should be a 40o spread you look at UTSA 9 and4 last year essentially expected to have the same strength this year it's just it's really just going with the trends here kind of finding spots and value where the oddsmakers aren't really looking yeah totally agree ladies points with UTSA I mean they're not named a road runners for a reason this is a team that plays as fast as their nickname indicat KES on Turf in the Alamo Dome they will Blitz kentha state whose claim the fame in the FCS was more with their option offense their triple option so coming to the FBS level they have to break that mold and try to find ways to create big plays without the triple lster or a version of that now defensively they will do some things schematically but when you have four and five wide receivers that legitimately run four four four five and an offense that wants to work touchdown a check down this may be covered by halftime so lay these points comfortably with UTSA road runners have won nine or more games in each of the last three seasons under Jeff trailer who is entering his Fifth Season at the HM all right back up the board Virginia Tech 13 and a half Point favorites as they go to Vanderbilt the total here sitting at 48 and a hook first meeting between these two since 1989 so walk us through the play here McKenzie yeah I you know I think more Vanderbilt than most people do I don't think the world of them I think they are you know a below average team but I do think they can play really well in this game I think 13 and a half is a little disrespectful to this new fandy team look this is a team that averaged 24 points at home last year they averaged six more points at home and Virginia Tech they allow a lot of points on the road so there is a opportunity to attack the spread here I think my favorite play personally would be more to attack Vandy team total here the line at 16 and a half we make the number 23 like I just mentioned better team at home offensively but then they bring in some new offensive minds and offensive assets here with a quarterback from New Mexico Jerry Kill from New Mexico as well an offensive coordinator so that's a strong offensive mind any you know recruiting you were doing of Vandy last year becomes a little bit irrelevant I think this team can surprise some people a little bit maybe I think the team total is a little safer than the spread McKenzie I I love what you just said because you did a great job of trying to sell folks on Vanderbilt football but I am totally disagreeing with everything you we're still talking about Vanderbilt football here and listen I have to believe it to see it or see it to believe it however you want to put the saying there's no way I'm trusting Vander bille football versus Virginia Tech football with all those starters returning an outstanding quarterback in drones and a coach in Brent Pride who yes I know personally but definitely is one of the brighter defensive minds and has done a great job slowly building things back up out there in blackburg but when you have this many returning starters that very underrated team in the ACC and this is prime position for a team in the ACC to get back in good graces of everyone's because we just watched Florida State go down to a fellow ACC team but when you look at Virginia Tech getting a chance to take on a power four SEC Squad that's all people will talk about they won't remember that it was Vanderbilt they just beat an SEC team and they will beat the stuffing out of the comor I don't know emry you talk about needing to see it to believe it but allow me to tell you that we do run this situation over 10,000 times so I've seen it in about 10,000 different versions and I do see a story here where Vandy can play well at home in this particular game against this vulnerable Virginia Tech defense on the road so I don't need to see it okay that's why we got the coding that's why we got the numbers we do it all before if the model says Vander keeps this close throw the whole model away there's no way Vander football will keep this game close against Virginia Tech book it AB H model says so all right good stuff hokei is going for their first winning season since 2016 and 17 inside the lines with McKenzie Brooks and Mr football game game [Music] [Music] plan foreign foreign fore [Music] [Music] spe back [Music] spe I e [Applause] [Music] he [Music] [Music] [Music] for e [Music] [Music] take the shot [Music] [Music] [Music] foree [Music] foree enem 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