Cleveland forecast - Meteorologist AJ Colby updates the Labor Day holiday weekend weather outlook

[Music] well we are in a run up to the holiday weekend and the Labor Day holiday is upon us of course the air show and all kinds of stuff going on for the the holiday but uh the current week ahead is awfully stuffy boy the heat and humidity are are really uh quite high and uh noteworthy to say the least there's a heat advisory in effect for greater Cleveland k hga County in particular and areas of Northwest Ohio we're going to look in on that and also the potential for some strong to severe thunderstorms will be with us we'll show you some of the timing the latest computer models as well uh to give you maybe a flavor or an idea of some of the timing involved but boy for um any of the folks stuck in the heat today if you are planning on being out and about of course you want to take it as slow and easy as possible and provide lots of water for your bring them inside if you can into the air conditioning because they like to be comfy too just like we humans but other than that uh we're going to be talking about uh perhaps uh some Stormy Weather and a look at radar showing severe thunderstorm warnings and effect for parts of central lower Michigan north and west of Grand Rapids and Flint for our neck of the woods we are dealing with a dry atmosphere uh in the in the literal sense I suppose the figurative sense it feels awfully humid the air is loaded up with water vapor and certainly uh feeling very humid heat index values nearing 100 degrees some locals especially in the areas of heat advisory over in northwest Ohio but as of right now uh no thunderstorms are showing up on the map and that is definitely obviously very good news continue to monitor that you want to keep an eye to the sky for any strong to severe weather uh developments and again that would be in the afternoon heat of the day let's have a look at our heat firing up from these thunderstorms this courtesy of the National Weather Service in Cleveland the graphics showing 100 degree heat index value forecast at its peak between noon and 8:00 today and that includes Northwest Ohio North Central Ohio K Ohio and kyoga County where the heat index values may be at a 100 or greater on the right hand side of the screen there that you see that is from the Storm Prediction Center with the heat firing up some of these thunderstorms that could reach severe limits now the confidence isn't necessarily high in the development of these severe thunderstorms but again we have to include that potential since the necessary ingredients for local Gusty thunderstorms are also there it will continue hot for tomorrow as well heat index values in the 90s probably low 90s but that's still plenty hot and you'll want to wear lightweight light colored clothing of course um and anything that you can do to minimize or mitigate being exposed to that heat of course those who have breathing problems COPD things like that that uh suffer the greatest the elderly and the very young are most susceptible to these uh issues with high heat and humidity there is a marginal risk for severe thunderstorms tomorrow as well so thunderstorm clusters could reach that category we'll show you a satellite imagery and how things look from upstairs looking downward you can see these high and mid-level clouds associated with the heat of the day no real cumula form clouds where we see that cauliflower cumulus congestus which would be an early indicator of perhaps some thunderstorm activity most of those are well to the north and west although a line of some pretty decent thunderstorms out over Lake Michigan May steer themselves in the Northern Ohio and some of the computer models are indicating that as a potential but most of that action staying over the upper plain states the Corn Belt if you will where uh lot of this moisture is provided by uh the Flora and Fauna those uh the corn crops out there in the midwest especially over Minnesota where these mesoscale convective systems or MCS has begin to build we have a couple of those showing up already on composite radar here north and east of Sue St Marie that line of storms will continue to head east and then there's a pretty good line of thunderstorms up around Milwaukee that is a mesoscale conve convective system not a drao just yet but uh the the setup and necessary ingredients there potentially for seeing some of those uh very powerful thunderstorms bowing into lower Michigan and perhaps even into Northern Ohio we are part of that Target area this is the surface map setup and you can see it's a stationary frontal boundary but that begins to move it shows signs of dislodging and pushing over in Northern Ohio through the overnight hours the front draped over the southern Great Lakes you can see its motion is very subtly slowly but inexorably Southward over Northern Ohio by tomorrow afternoon that front will straddle Northeast Ohio we're going to keep the potential for some storms going by tomorrow night even though the front has cleared 2third of the state we still have to keep the potential for maybe a random Renegade shower Thunder shower going into tomorrow night Thursday morning that front sets up shop close to the Ohio river and uh doesn't make much progress even on into Thursday evening we'll see how that shakes out in the full forecast into the holiday weekend here momentarily so here is one of the computer models and of course this is uh we're modeling the atmosphere here this doesn't mean uh it will verify as ground truth but I think the storms according to this model are showing signs of firing up in the early morning hours of Wednesday there you can see that first line of thunderstorms that's about oh five or six in the morning lasting till about 8 or 9ine in terms of timing there you can see another round for Wednesday evening firing up looks like it starts to quiet down a little bit more scattered for the day on Thursday due points are very high feels tropical upper 60s low 70° dup points that's just lots of fuel for afternoon showers and thunderstorms and nighttime storms potentially you can see some drier air tries to settle into Northern Ohio in the dupoint forecast there on Thursday I think that drier air takes a little bit of time before it finally does funnel in forecast to tales for tonight goes as follows warm and stuffy showers thunderstorms especially late we can't rule them out cropping up just about any time but the 30 30 to 40% chance is is best suited for the late night tonight and early morning hours sun down at 808 overnight lows right around 70 for tomorrow our Wednesday forecast is partly sunny a warm humid day again chances for showers and thunderstorms persist we're looking at an 88 degree high heat index values should be in the low maybe mid 90 degree category no heat advisory in effect for tomorrow though Southwest winds turning out of the North as that front moves through here's a look at the extended Outlook taking us into the holiday weekend Thursday a seasonal high of 83 there's a very small chance for a pop-up shower storm we'll keep it at 20% better chance that we'll be dodging some raindrops on Friday and maybe even some Thunder hot and humid in 92 so the heat's not gone just yet as that front surges back northward and then eventually sweeps out of here for Saturday a passing shower possible right now we're looking at an 82 degree High overnight lows near 60 Sunday looks gorgeous that's the pick of the two weekend days for the holiday weekend Monday looking pretty good right now as well the early Outlook is temperatures 70s to near 80 I think an 82 for Sunday down to 58 on Sunday night with mostly sunny skies so I think we're going to see some resolution in this pattern as the weather resolves for us on on Sunday have a terrific rest of your night everybody thanks for stopping by from the AJ kobby weather center I'm me meteorologist AJ kobby and have a great night