Davis Fire Afternoon Update - September 11, 2024

good afternoon my name is Stuart Turner I'm the fire behavior analyst for the team as a fire behavior analyst what I do is I predict what the fire is going to do where it's going to go and how fast it's going to get there and if you remember from previous briefings last night I I showed this model run that we did where we could possibly be today with these wind speeds that we see out there on the fire area and this showed a 7 Mile run is very possible today luckily the strong work that the crews did in the last day or so has really kept the fire in check and has not allowed it to get out of the perimeter of the fire and keeping this fire spread in check so we're not seeing this seven mile run as of right now and it's oh 3:00 in the afternoon almost 4:00 in the afternoon so we do see those winds out there though the winds are gusting up to 40 60 70 mph depending on the elevation out there so those winds are still out there we're not out of the woods yet but every hour where that fire is not spreading knock some more length off of that potential spread that we may see the rest of the afternoon so if this does get out in the next several hours the fire will continue to spread we have a very good possibility of it moving North but I don't think it's going to move that entire seven miles probably won't even get the three and half miles the best bet that we have right now on this fire for movement is we have a little bit of heat outside the line on the south end of the fire and as the winds come off a slide Mountain it's a Westerly wind so that's wanting to push everything to the east here but even that we're not seeing any great deal of movement in that fire so to reiterate currently we're not seeing any big movement on the fire perimeter things are staying in check from the good hard work that the fire Crews have done out there and now I'll pass it off to operations for you thank you st Jason Clawson operations section chief Southwest Team 1 um like Steward mentioned um we're at 3:45 in the afternoon and we're we're looking we're looking really good along all across the fire at this time um before I get started though I do wanted to make a note that we have not been able to fly any of our aircraft uh throughout today's operational period due to the high winds and High the winds that they're experiencing across the fire at this time uh coming across the AER front at those higher level winds is where we're seeing those higher gusts so we're not able to those are the reason why we're not able to fly any of our aircraft but several portions of the fire perimeter are are partially sheltered from those higher gusts but there's also some areas of our perimeter that are exposed to gusts of 30 mph so far this afternoon and U and all reports are everything is holding it as planned but going going around round the fire with you real quick division Papa Zulu uh all looking really good the area of containment that we added yesterday at the end of shift uh no concerns all across the uh on the east side of the highway there moving around on the bottom the south end of the fire and division Alpha all of our direct contained hand containment handlines uh we do have fire Personnel all along the bottom here um all working diligently to mitigate and mop up those heat sources along the perimeter um all looking good and secure at this time in this area that on the top uh top end of division Alpha where Ste mentioned where we had a little bit of fire outside of our line this morning uh we're still working uh we got Crews coming from the top with hosel and water uh working to secure that perimeter they are being very successful throughout the day and able to check that fire with water they're able to mop it up and secure it even more uh in the in anticipation of the Winds coming up this afternoon so very good progress um up in the top end of alpha uh throughout the day division Charlie uh this is where we're seeing a little bit more of the sheltered area along the fire perimeter to to the high winds and we have Crews coming from the top and from the bottom putting in the handline and securing that age with a hose lay and water as well and uh we're mopping up we got about 100 ft or so mopped up with moing up mies extinguishing the fire along that perimeter and securing that Fire's Edge uh progress is going very good and we're feeling very confident uh that we'll be able to hold that throughout the day moving up on the northwest corner in division Charlie uh the slop over that we had uh previous shift on the north side of Highway 431 same uh same scenario there we have resources on the ground hand crws engines water tenders heavy equipment all working uh with hand tools and chainsaws and hose lays uh with to to secure that fire perimeter there are a couple of uh unburned Islands what we call so there are some areas of unburned fuel uh within that area just north of the Highway 431 that is what the majority of the smoke that we're seeing on the North End of the fire those unburned Pockets cleaning themselves up at this time they are far enough interior what we call it from our containment lines so at this time they're not not really a threat to the line and our folks are right there on the perimeter uh ready to respond if needed but uh feeling very very comfortable and very confident at this time of uh the day working around here and then the rest of all all of the uh the perimeter that's just south of the Galina Community uh once again all looking really good but we do have Crews and Equipment spread out all along uh the perimeter of that fire looking to secure that throughout the rest of the operational period as well um so again going back we do not we're not able to fly aircraft uh to support the crews on the ground but all the critical areas where we have uh we're working the fire perimeter we do have water we have hose LS we have Personnel that are working with water to secure that perimeter um so uh feeling confident uh throughout the rest of the uh the operational shift but we'll see at 1700 when the uh when the real high wind gust do come in but uh at this time we're we're feeling very good thank you