hi everyone welcome to lecture number 38 the third lecture on unemployment in our last lecture we discussed about the job search behavior of the workers we discussed about the sequential job search we discussed about the non-sequential job search we discussed about the W of a distribution the wage of a distribution is nothing but the frequency distribution of potential job offers the workers they have and also we discussed about the asking wage rate the threshold ways that determines if the worker is unemployed whether he accepts or rejects the incoming job offer at what wage rate he accepts and rejects the job offer we also discussed about the impact of unemployment insurance on the spale of unemployment the duration of unemployment in this lecture we'll discuss about how workers allocate their time over business cycle considering the intertemporal substitution hypothesis and when we say intertemporal substitution hypothesis we have already discussed about it that workers have an incentive to allocate their time to work activities during those periods of their life cycle when the wage is high and to consume leer when the wage is low and the Leisure is cheap so we'll discuss about uh that how the workers they distribute their time allocation over their life cycle when business cycle occurs that is what we call intertemporal substitution hypothesis we'll discuss about uh the sectoral shift hypothesis sectoral shift hypothesis talks about that at any point of time some sectors of the economy May growing rapidly than others so we'll discuss how this sectoral shock might create some kind of structural unemployment in the economy further we'll discuss about the efficiency W and the unemployment efficiency wage is the W which is above the competitive market wage rate so when uh the wages are higher than the competitive market wage rate then how Unemployment uh occurs in the economy further we'll discuss about the policy implications of H C which talks about the relationship between inflation and unemployment so so far we discuss the job search models these job search models provide an important explanation for the existence of frictional unemployment in the economy so this type of unemployment is voluntary in the sense that workers invest in information so as to get higher wages in the post unemployment period so some of the studies have proposed uh that even the large increase in unemployment observed during several economic shutdowns which probably has little to do with the job search activities might have a voluntary component because of this intertemporal substitution hypothesis so let's try to understand this little at a deeper sense so in our discussion of life cycle about the labor Supply if you remember we discussed in our labor supply model we discussed that the workers have an incentive to allocate their time to work activities during those periods of life cycle when the wage is high and to consume Leisure when the wage is low and the Leisure is cheap so the intertemporal substitution hypothesis has important implications for how workers allocate their time over business cycle suppose that the real ways it fluctuates over the business cycle and that this fluctuation is procyclical procyclical means uh the ways the real ways Rises when the economy expands and declines when the economy contracts so because it is cheap to consume leer when the real wage is low workers are more than willing to reduce their labor Supply during the recession so they can become unemployed and collect unemployment insurance benefits or perhaps leave the uh labor force Al together in order to uh have more Leisure because the real wage is low and uh uh as a result the Leisure is cheap so as a result we can see a part of the unemployment observed during this economic slowdown might be voluntary because workers are taking advantage of the decline in the real ways to consume Leisure so the intertemporal substitution hypothesis makes two key assumptions one is the real way is procyclical and second is the labor Supply responds to the shift in the real ways however if you look at this then the question question of whether real wages are sticky over the business cycle is one of the West question in the macroeconomics and it has not yet been settled that whether the wages are sticky if they are sticky then to what extent although there are uh growing consensus that wages are indeed procyclical so we are still unsure about the strength of the correlation between the real ways and the business cycle so the movement of this real ways over the business cycle is difficult to calculate because the composition of Labor Force changes over the cycle so some enter into the labor force and some exit the labor force so unemployment typically has a particular adverse effect on uh this low skilled workers so when we calculate this average wage of workers during an economic expansion we use a very different sample than when we calculate the wages of the workers during recession in other words we can say because the unemployment targets low skilled workers they are less likely to be included in the calculation during the economic contraction than the economic expansion so the changes in the sample mix it biases the calculation of cyclical Trend in the real wage although it was widely believed for many years that real wages were sticky still studies that try to correct the composition bias suggest that real wages may be Pro cyclical in nature further even if the real wages are procyclical it is still doubtful that uh the large pool of unemployed workers during C recession are voluntarily unemployed which implied intertemporal substitution hypothesis so after all this hypothesis assumes that the labor Supply is responsive to the changes in the real ways over the business cycle so therefore the evidences uh does not suggest that much of the unemployment which increases and during the economic slowdown can be interpreted as a rational reallocation of of workers time between work and leer now coming to uh the sectoral shift hypothesis although the job search activities can help us to understand the presence of frictional unemployment they do not explain the existence of long-term unemployment also they do not explain the Persistence of long-term unemployment so as a result a number of alter Al native models have been proposed to explain why structural unemployment might arise in a competitive market one important explanation which explains uh the possibility that the workers who are searching for job do not have the qualification to fill the available vacancies in the market so it is well known that the shift in the demand do not affect all the sectors of the econ e equally however at any point in time some sectors of the economy are growing rapidly and other sectors are declining now question is that how the structural shocks might create some kind of structural unemployment in the economy let's take for example suppose the manufacturing industry it is hit by an adverse shock now because of this reduced demand for their output manufacturers they lay off many of their workers so when there will be a favorable socks now these kind of socks favorable shocks can happen to the other sectors simultaneously so like let's say computer industry now manufacturing industry has experienced an adverse shock whereas the computer industry indry has experienced an favorable shock so in that sense there will be an increase in the demand for labor by the computer Farms now if the lay of manufacturing workers have the skills that can be easily transferred across the industries so the adverse condition in the manufacturing sector would not lead to uh any long-term unemployment so workers can easily move from manufacturing sector to the computer arms so the lay of workers would leave the manufacturing sector and move on to the jobs in the new thriving computer industry so there would be a frictional unemployment as the workers learned about and Sample the various job opportunities available in the computer industry now manufacturing workers however probably have the skill that are partly specific to the manufacturing sector so their skills may not be very useful to the computer Farms now what will happen in the long run the unemployment arises because it will take time for these workers those who are lay off from the manufacturing sector to acquire the skill that are required for a computer industry so the sectoral shift hypothesis suggest that there will be a pool of workers who are unemployed for a long spill because of the structural imbalance between the skill of unemployed workers and the skill that the employers are looking for however there is some disagreement about whether this sectoral shift contribute to the unemployment problem in advanced economies the sectoral shift hypothesis implies that the unemployment rate arises when there is a lot of dispersion in the employment growth rate across the industries which means some Industries are growing and some Industries are declining so when this dispersion is quite large then this kind of unemployment will be high in the economy so while going through some of the recent literatures on this sectoral shift hypothesis it has been observed that this sectoral shocks have an impact on stock prices stock market prices now with stock prices rising when the Farms are hit by a favorable socks and the stock prices declining when the Farms are hit by adverse socks so the disperson in the change in the stock prices across the industries therefore provides an information about the importance of the sectoral sock in the economy so it turns out that uh there is also a positive correlation between the dispersion in the movement of stock prices and the unemployment rate in the economy this is how we can uh explain this uh sectoral shift hypothesis now coming to the efficiency ways and unemployment we have already seen uh that when the Farms find it expensive to monitor workers output in terms of productivity they might use uh efficiency ways to buy the workers cooperation Trust now because the Farms pay above the market clearing wage so the efficiency WS model generates some kind of involuntary unemployment in the economy there are no pressure on the farms to lower the wage because this efficiency wage is the profit maximizing wage so if the farm lowers the ways the payroll savings are more than this outweight by the productivity loss which is going to happen because uh the workers may sing AV to work in a productive manner so let's try to understand how this efficiency ways uh create some kind of involuntary unemployment in the economy now if you look at this graph on this x-axis we have taken the number of employment and the Y exis we have taken the W now at a particular point of time this labor supply curve is perfectly inelastic so this s e s this is the labor supply curve and D is the labor demand curve and if the economy is having a perfectly competitive market then the wage rate is going to be decided it is the w star wage rate this is the market clearing wage rate based on this demand and supply and the amount of employment will be e which will be full employment label there will be no unemployment let's say the farm cannot easily monitor the output of the workers the productivity of the workers so this monitoring activities are expensive it has some cost now when we say it is a perfectly competitive market and the wage rate is W star then uh we are assuming that uh uh this monitoring activities are Costless now we are assuming that the Farms cannot easily monitor this output of the workers productivity of the workers and to monitor these activities there is some cost Associated to that now to simplify the discussion let's assume that the workers who spend all their time reading the newspaper Comics or uselessly surfing the Wave Internet so that scking workers are completely unproductive they are there in the farm they are there in the workplace but they are not working they are just scking the job now the farm therefore will want to offer a ways which encourage it to uh not to S at all so the farm is going to offer them a way employment package which will uh gain the confidence of the workers that they will not stck at all when they are at job so let's derive the ways that the farm must pay to ensure that the workers do not stre suppose the unemployment rate is very high in the economy and it is then costly to stre because once a scking worker get caught then he will be fired and he faces a long unemployment spill so as a result the farm will be able to attract the workers who will not s even if they pay relatively low wage so if the unemployment rate is very low in the economy however scking workers who are cut and fired they face only a shortterm an employment spill so to make scking costly and to make them uh the short unemployment spill unprofitable the Farms have to offer the workers a relatively High wage so in that sense we can say uh this non- scking supply curve for the workers it will be upward sloping now this non- saking supply curve which gives the number of noning workers that the farm can hire at each wage rate so the noning supply Cur states that when the Farms employ few workers out of this total employed workers e now they can attract non-sticking workers at a low wage rate because the layoff leads to a long and costly unemployment spill now the other way if the farm hires a large number of workers they must pay higher wages to encourage the workers not to sink so non scking this supply curve for the workers will give the number of workers that the market can attract at any given wage rate and who will not St now let's try to understand uh and derive the no saking supply curve of the workers by the farm how it is upward sloping so what we discussed is that at a particular point of time in a competitive market the demand for labor is D and the supply of labor is s and the market clearing W rate is W star now it is costly to monitor this scking of the workers so the farm decides to pay a higher wage rate than this W star wage rate to the workers so that they will not streck while they are in job now if the farm is going to pay a wage rate W one which is above this W rate W star at point if now at point if the wage difference is low because there is high unemployment in the econ e omy so the workers are finding that if they get caught while uh streaking then uh for them the unemployment spell will be quite high so the farm is going to hire this much of workers let's E1 and paying them W1 wage rate now if the farm wants to hire more workers then the farm has to uh operate at Point G now the farm has to pay E2 uh employee E2 workers and to pay this W2 wage rate so in this situation the farm is paying a high wage rate because the short-term unemployment spill the workers are fcing a short-term unemployment so the farm is paying a little bit more higher wage rate to employ E2 amount of workers so therefore the farm is paying the wage rate which will be uh different to the different workers to attract them and to keep uh on the work and not to sck so therefore this no scking Supply carve for the labor is this and it is upward sloping we can denote it NS is the no scking Supply carve so it is important to note that this no saking Supply car with will never touch this perfectly inelastic supply curve at e workers and that the difference between these two cures gives the number of workers who are unemployed now if the market employs all the workers at a particular ways a streaking worker who gets fired can work across the streets and get another job in another sense we can say that there is no penalty for the streaking so the key in Insight provided by this efficiency wage model is clear that some unemployment is necessary to keep the employed workers in line so as you can see this noning nocking Supply car should not touch this perfectly in elastic Supply car and the difference between these two gives some amount of unemployment is there in the economy so the difference is showing that there is a difference in saking and non- saking workers the moment it joins this perfectly in elastic Line This noning supply curve it is just explaining that if the worker get fire immediately he will get another job so there is no cost for this saking and this difference between this no scking supply curve and the perfectly elastic supply curve is the unemployment and it is involuntary unemployment so we can derive uh some of the properties from this equilibrium now there are no Market pressure forcing the efficiency WS now if you look at this uh graph the no scking supply curve intersects this demand curve and this no uh sing supply curve decides the efficiency wage rate which is uh wns and if the farm were to pay uh less than this wns then there would be fewer workers who are willing to work and no scking uh they will not s and being demanded by the farm in the industry and the wage would rise so if the wage uh was higher than this efficiency Wass wns then there would be more workers willing to work and not St than uh are being demanded so wage would fall therefore the efficiency wage this wns is above the market clearing competitive wage second uh property is that the workers do not streak in the labor market the efficiency ways this wns is the ways that encourage this ens employed work ERS to behave properly now there is uh involuntary unemployment the difference between e and ens unemployed workers want to work at the going ways but cannot find job so farms in this market however do not wish to employ these workers because full employment encourages this workers to stre now the structural unemployment which generates because of this efficiency ways is very different from the frictional unemployment that generated by this job search so search unemployment in this case becomes productive it is an investment in the information that leads to a higher uh paying job and the unemployment that is due to the efficiency W is involuntary and unproductive it is from the worker's point of view so the worker would like to uh have a job but cannot find one and further the worker has nothing to gain from being uh in a long spale of unemployment so from the Farm's point of view however this unvoluntary unemployment is productive because it keeps the employed workers honest and thereby uh increasing the output and having more productivity so when we see uh that uh how this uh efficiency W is determined now efficiency W is determined at the level NS and the amount of worker employed is e0 NS earlier in a competitive environment the wage rate was W star and the amount of employment in the economy was e now we can see the mark this W efficiency wage is higher than this market clearing wage rate now let's say uh there is uh an economic contraction so there is a less demand for the workers so there will be the demand curve shifts from d0 to D1 now when there is an uh recession happens and there is a shift in the demand for labor now you can see the change in the efficiency WS the efficiency W has moved from w0 NS to W1 NS and the amount of employment is E1 NS in the economy now at the same time if you look at it had it been a situation in a competitive environment then the wage would have been reduced from W star0 to W star 1 had it been a situation in a competitive environment so we can say that the efficiency ways is little bit sticky the change in the efficiency ways and the change in the competitive ways you can see the change in the efficiency wage is much lower than the change in the competitive wage rate however it increases the unemployment the unemployment has increased from e0 NS to E1 NS now the unemployment is quite High however the wage is sticky the relative change in the efficiency wage is uh lower as compared to the competitive wage rate so whenever there is some economic contraction happens or the economic slowdown happens this efficiency W creates some kind of stickiness in the Slowdown or the reducing the wage rate in the labor market so the efficiency wage model implies that wages will be relatively sticky over the business cycle and for example uh the output demand it falls when there is a Slowdown happens in the economy in a competitive Market the labor demand shifts down from d0 to D1 and the competitive wage rate it has come down from w0 Star to W1 star now if the farm paid this efficiency W the same decline in the demand reduces the wage from this w0 NS to W1 NS so therefore we can say the efficiency wage is less responsive to the change in the demand than the competitive wage however this employment for it falls from e0 NS to E1 NS during this contraction and unemployment arises now talking about this Philips curve Philips curve is a concept in the labor economics and the macroeconomics that describes the inverse relationship between the rate of unemployment and the rate of inflation in the economy it has been named after the after Economist a w Phillips who first identified the relationship in 1958 in one of his paper the Philips curve has been uh from that point uh it has been a central framework for understanding the Dynamics between unemployment and inflation in the economy it has an inverse relationship between this unemployment and inflation so Philips carar suggest that uh an inverse relationship between this unemployment rate and the inflation and when the unemployment is low the inflation tends to be high and vice versa so this relationship implies that a tradeoff between unemployment and inflation so policy makers often face a dilemma of reducing one at the cost of the other so if you have to reduce unemployment then the economy will face high price if you have to control the inflation then economy May face a high unemployment so there is a tradeoff and it puts the policy makers in the Dilemma that which one should be taken in priority so we can understand this relationship uh with the help of the graph now on the x-axis we have taken unemployment rate on the y axis we have taken the inflation rate and let's say at a given rate of unemployment 7% the economy is experiencing an inflation rate of 3% now if some kind of policy measures has been taken to reduce this unemployment in the economy from 7 to 5 the inflation has gone up from 3 to 4% so economy moves from point A to point B and economy is at point B where economy is experiencing a 5% unemployment rate with 4% inflation so we can see an inverse relationship between this uh inflation rate and unemployment rate so the Philips curve implies that government could pursue uh expansionary policies to move to point B where we can see that there will be a fall in the unemployment rate to 5% and the inflation can rise to 4% now it depends on what the government uh perceives to be in uh the national interest it might be then worthwhile to pursue either the fiscal policy or the monetary policy or the fiscal policy and monetary policy together in order to lower the unemployment rate at the cost of high rate of inflation however up to 70s this tradeoff was there and most of the economies in the world had never experienced this twin problem of inflation and unemployment in 1973 74 uh recession has uh and the oil crisis has created uh this and uh the economies we experiencing this high unemployment and high inflation together so the inflation and unemployment experience of' 70s it was demolishing the notion of this stable Philips curve which was established in 1958 so some Economist began to argue that a long-term tradeoff between this inflation and unemployment did not make any theoretical sense so instead of that they argued that the economic theory implies that the long-term Philips curve must be vertical if you can explain it differently some Economist they argue that there exist an equilibrium unemployment rate the there exist an natural rate of unemployment in the economy so they call it natural rate of unemployment that persist regardless of the inflation so economy experience some kind of natural rate of unemployment if whatever the inflation rate is so that could be the phenomena in the long run some Economist they argue that no in the short run this trade-off could be there but in the long run the relationship is vertical so the long run Philips curve is vertical suppose uh the economy is in a non-inflation AR long run equilibrium let's take the example that with a rate of unemployment 5% and the inflation is zero at a particular point of time in the economy now the unemployed workers have an asking wage rate and that makes them to become indifferent between accepting a job and continuing their search for active for new jobs so since the economic environment is not changing over the time we are saying that inflation is zero so the asking wage rate is constant as a result the unemployment rate is also constant at 5% and which is a natural rate so given this condition let's say the government is unexpectedly pursues a monetary policy perhaps let's say by printing new monies that pushes the inflation rate to five from 5% to 7% so it takes time for the unemployed workers to learn that the inflation rate has gone up and even though the ways of our distribution shifted to the right by 7% the workers are still ignorant about the price rise in the economy they believe that there is no inflation which means the workers do not adjust the asking wage rate upward to account for the unanticipated inflation now because of this intervention of the monetary policy the inflation has gone up but the workers could not anticipate it correctly and they are not aware of of this fact that the price rise has gone up so that they are unable to adjust their asking wage rate so in that case this asking wage rate is going to be too low relative to the new level of nominal wage offers so workers will now encounter many job offers that might be uh that meet the asking wage rate and the unemployment rate may fall they're going to accept the offers the nominal wage rate the new wage rate but with that that is not their real wage rate so a high rate of unanticipated inflation therefore reduces the unemployment for a short period of time now when the workers get realized that their real wages has gone down definitely they will withdraw from the workforce and the unemployment will increase so let's try to understand this phenomena with the help of the graph now on the x-axis we have taken unemployment rate on the y axis we have taken inflation we are assuming that let's say economy is is at a 5% unemployment rate and the non-inflationary situation and economy is operating at Point a where the inflation is it's zero now because of some kind of policy interventions let's say it's a monetary policy which increase uh the money supply in the economy as a result the inflation has gone up to 7% and because of this expansionary monetary policy the unemployment has reduced from 5 to 3% now the workers the move from point A to point B and they they are experiencing this 7% inflation but they are not aware of this 7% inflation the price rise they are unanticipated so their expectation about this price rise they were not aware of that as a result the unemployment has reduced from 5 to three the moment they realize that the inflation has gone up they will withdraw from the level market and they will come back the situation will come back to point C to the Natural rate of unemployment so this is a long run Philips curve where any increase uh in the any intervention in the fiscal policy or monetary policy may increase the inflation but it will not reduce the unemployment rate so at Point C the workers now in the economy they are having 5% unemployment rate and 7% inflation so economy is experiencing a high unemployment and high un inflation however for a short period of time they move from point A to point B where they experience the the economy experience less unemployment but High inflation so the tradeoff between this inflation and unemployment exist in an inverse way in a short run but not in the long run in the long run the economy operates with a natural rate of unemployment it persist regardless of the inflation rate so 5% is the natural rate of unemployment in the economy regardless of whatever the inflation rate is there so when we talk about this short run versus long run Philips curve in the short run the Philips curve indicates that policy makers can exploit the trade-off between unemployment and inflation by using expansionary fiscal policy or monetary policy to lower the unemployment rate even if it leads to high inflation however contractionary policies fiscal policies and monetary policies can be used to reduce inflation rate and potentially at the cost of high unemployment however in the long run the Philips curve is often shows a vertical line with suggesting that there is no permanent tradeoff between this unemployment and inflation instead in the long run the economy tends to settle as its natural rate of unemployment and changes in the aggregate demand is primarily affects the price level rather than unemployment so the difference uh in the short run and long run happens because of this expectation expectation plays a crucial role in shaping this Philips curve relationship now if the individuals and the Farms anticipate higher inflation they may adjust their behavior accordingly and leading to a shift in the Philips curve for example if the workers expect that there will be high inflation they may demand higher wages which can contribute to higher inflation without necessarily reducing the unemployment level so the individuals the workers expectation plays a significant role in estimating this tradeoff between inflation and unemployment in the economy so expectations could be adaptive and expectations could be rational let's talk about this adaptive expectation versus rational expectation so the original Philips Curve Model was based on the Assumption of adaptive expectation adaptive expectation is that where the individuals form their expectation of the future inflation based on their past experiences based on the past inflation rates they're only considering what was the trend in the past however the concept of rational expectation suggest that the individuals Farm expectation based on all available information at present including the past Trend it also includes the current economic condition the policy action so the rational expectation Theory implies that the policy makers May face challenges in exploiting this shter trade-off between unemployment and inflation as individuals they adjust their expectation quickly in response to the policy changes however there are uh certain empirical evidences and the criticism about this Philips car while the the Philips curve has provided valuable insight into the relationship between unemployment and inflation the empirical evidences has shown that the relationship is not always stable and can vary across time and across the economic condition and across the different countries so critics of this Philips curve argue that it may not be accurately captur the complexities of the economy however it is uh the usefulness as a policy tool so in that sense it may be limited especially when we talk about the long run so that is the major criticism that uh uh this this can be considered in a short run but this tread of cannot be it is not that much useful in a long run poish implications overall uh this Philips curve remains a fundamental Concept in labor economics and macroeconomics it provides a framework for analyzing the Dynamics between unemployment and inflation and informing decisions about the economic polic and stabilizations however it is applicable and the application is relevance only continue to subject of the debate Among The Economist some are in favor of that some are not in favor of that while talking about this natural rate of unemployment the natural rate of unemployment is known as the non accelerating inflation rate of unemployment NAU it refers to the level of unemployment that exist in an economy when it is operating at its potential output or full employment level so the natural rate of unemployment is the level of unemployment where the economy is operating at its full employment level so this could be a long run phenomena it is the level of unemployment that occurs when the economy is in equilibrium and with the job openings matching with the number of unemployed workers and the unemployment is just due to the frictional or structural factors rather than any cyclical downturn or slowdown so mostly this uh natural rate of unemployment takes into consideration the frictional and structural unemployment rather than the ccal unemployment so when we talk about this natural rate of unemployment mostly it is the Full Employment label in the economy so the natural rate of unemployment is associated with full employment which means that all the individuals who are willing and able to work at the prevailing wage rate they are employed however the Full Employment does not mean there will be a zero unemployment at some level of frictional and structural unemployment ment is considered and it is inevitable to any Dynamic economy this thread of between inflation and unemployment economists often analyze this relationship between this inflation and unemployment using this Philips Cur so the natural rate of unemployment plays a crucial role in this analysis as it represents the level of unemployment which consist with the stable inflation over a long period of time so policy makers mostly they aim to keep the unemployment close to the Natural rate to avoid this accelerating inflation or deflation while estimating this natural rate of unemployment it's very challenging and it's very subject to uncertainty as we can see it can vary over time due to change in the labor market institutions demographic conditions technological interventions and so on so forth and so many factors which influence this so Economist use this uh the statistical method and models to estimate this natural dat of unemployment can differ across the countries across the region and over the time so understanding this natural rate of unemployment is essential for the policy makers and the business houses to assess the health of the labor market and formulate appropriate economic policies and make informed decision about the hiring wages and inflation expectations so in summary we can say that the intertemporal substitution hypothesis which argues that the huge shift in the labor Supply observed over the business cycle may be the result of workers reallocation their time so as to purchase leer when it is cheap however the sectoral shft hypothesis argues that the sectoral unemploy M arises because the skill of the workers cannot be easily transferred across the sectors so the skill of workers laid of from a declining industry have to be retooled reskilled before they can find a job in the growing Industries however the efficiency ways Theory talks that it's difficult to monitor the workers's output therefore this efficiency wage is above the market clearing wage rate and it creates some kind of involuntary unemployment so this efficiency W create some kind of stickiness in the labor market in terms of wage adjustment further we can summarize that a downward sloping Philips curve can exist only in the short run however in the long run there is no tradeoff between inflation and unemployment there is only the inflation goes up without changing the level of unemployment economy experience and natural rate of unemployment in the long run in our next lecture we'll discuss about the labor market dynamics in India we'll take all these theories and the policy implications how Indian labor market has evolved over last 30 40 Years of time so we'll discuss about in detail the labor market dynamics in India thank you a