what's going on guys thanks so much for tuning into top 25 live I'm Cowboy what we learn last week what we learned I got to talk on my microphone I rewatched that and uh I can't believe nobody in chat would come to me and say hey dude you you you sound like [ __ ] so I learned I gotta talking the microphone and I did have it upside down funny maybe holding it the right way up should be better I can see my little microphone thing here going like this now so looks like we're doing okay on the microphone uh somebody in chat let me know if it sounds okay I don't know if you watched last week but it was trash so um cool what do we got going on top 25 live um let's be let's be honest last night we cash BYU we had money line we're 353 on power dogs this season we had Georgia Tech money line we had USC money line and now we took a little uh we took we took just a little bit of uh of a BYU Ming line I don't like week two week two's overreaction on both sides you see people over correct lines for the negative you see them uh the odds makers over correct them to the positive and we'll have a couple examples of that coming up and I I I think I looked through my notes I got my notes right here and last year I did not I I did not flourish in week two was actually I went 04 in week two um how did we have success on BYU well that was technically smu's week three so I had a little more data points to draw from and they had a bad performance and a good performance so I think those lines balanced out equally so I wasn't too worried about that but um I do have some looks I haven't made it to the window with anything except a all Michigan things an all Michigan thanks Vince um all Michigan thing parlay for 175 to return 2,000 total um that's it and it's it's a long shot and I think both dogs are live I almost if I would have bought that Michigan at seven and a half that would have been nice now it's coming back down but I see action on both sides and I get both counterpoints I mean every piece of data you're going to find is going to point you at Michigan today that's 100% factual if you're into like the sdql if you're into the um Trends and things like that every Trend every piece of data is going to point you to Michigan Michigan is a home dog is like for money it really is so um that's that's something that you could put in your notebook there I I'm like I said I'm not convicted to bet it though I I think um this line's stuck at this point for a reason at six and a half I think it's baiting people to take Texas and I think it knows that the money's once they hit seven it's gonna get bought right back up um the other side of it Michigan State that's um I the overreaction on Maryland's grotesque Maryland's not a good team uh they they beat up on Connecticut I think someone Connecticut's a bad program and Jim MOA had a good year uh that that talent's gone so he doesn't really have the same Talent he did that he that he took in he's been trying to recruit some people there it's not the same team Connecticut's a bad program I think they're only favored by 15 today against miramac so that'll tell you everything you need to know it's overreaction it's like playing FCS School Michigan State Jonathan Smith is a dog too Jonathan Smith is a dog that's the guy you want to bet on uh he's phenomenal in a dog role and I think that the eight and a half is too much that's probably the closest thing I would get to today uh at this point but as of right now I'm not on anything so let's get started though top 25 top 25 uh live uh we want to get you guys out of here in about 25 35 minutes at most we gotta be quick Texas Michigan Texas Michigan Texas faor by six and a half over under 41.5 the biggest key to me here is look at that overrun it's 41.5 you just saw Texas boat rates Jay orille and carado state I promise you guys colado State's going to be a good team this year I know they didn't looked apart last last game um maybe Texas had a little on the shoulder from their bad playoff performance I don't know whatever it was they came out and I misread that game I think that's the only game I've really misread like grotesquely this season so you know it happens but it's not that I want to fade Texas here I think Texas is a good team I think the quarterback I think they're so deep they might be the deepest roster in incaa this season I think they could have you know the whole first wave of people get injured and still be a top 10 team it's kind of gross how good they are Michigan looked like crap against the Fresno State switching quarterback he didn't know who's going to start and it was not good I mean Michigan did not look good at all and you're kind of saying well the line jumped it was three and a half now it jumps three points up as an overreaction that's kind of my point so I I think I take that overreaction and go wow that's real because it did was three and a half All Summer Long three and a half before week one and went to six and a half I think the overreaction is too much I think Texas is I think Michigan is the right side here think you you you find every Trend every piece of De you take a top down view of it so top down view means you don't just look at the matchup you look at the whole you look at the whole you narrow your view down look at week one look at week uh look at week two dogs in top 25 action look at week look at um Big 10 in top 25 action and you narrow it down TI sort of top down view is most people cap bottom up where they you know specifically look at the matchup or look at the player prop and build a case as to why I think sometimes the best thing is to just take a look at the whole field take a look at everything that's going on and and narrow it down to what what game fits this narrative and Texas AB or me Michigan absolutely fits the narrative to buy today so I'm not the way with it I don't like six and a half I'd rather have the seven and you know maybe if H Texas puts one up early and this thing gets a 10 we might get a live bet on it definitely I think if you can get a seven to 10 at any point I think you're good to go so the 41 and a half is a very low over under for a Texas game which screams to me that this is gonna be a defensive battle and Michigan's defense didn't really lose anything Michigan's secondary still as good as it gets every guy's going to be uh playing on NFL on Sunday every has me a First round picking that secondary and uh you know they struggle against Fresno State sure but once again we'll get to another team that struggled last week too how much did they need to show what did you need to show you know and we talk about you know I missed out we talk about Ring night you know I mean technically college football teams don't have that ring night but we talked about the first game after winning a championship and how it's a very unique SI situation to fade a team and that probably was the opportunity that we missed and you know the Vibes are high you still have a lot of guys that return from this team and you know so correlating it all I think we overreacted to Michigan I think the books react to Michigan I think Michigan's the right side here I would take Michigan plus six and a half I I do have them in a money line in a parlay that's about it so next Bowling Green uh PSU sitting there at 34.5 Mr James Franklin As We Know cover King the guy covers everything water covers 68% of the earth and or 70% of the earth and um you know and and he and James Franklin covers the other 30% yeah he knows the spread he says he knows the spread he knows everything he pays attention I don't know if he's got some funky [ __ ] going on 34.5 though is very bity to me I think it's very bity and I think Bowling Green is a little bit better than than people are anticipating I think they can cover that 35 I I really do and I think it's just too many points and Penn State you know you talk about the other thing too guys what does Penn State how much does Penn State really need to win this game by margin and history will say that Franklin does he just runs up the score you got Kent State coming up you know you've got two home games you got a byee coming in we took the dat we opened the database and we kind of looked and say hey what's going on what's going on with um what's going on with this team before a buy and you know it's not it's nothing fantastic it's not you're not look at it and go oh yeah this is an absolutely must buy it's not it's a a relatively flat split for Penn State historically so I didn't necessarily think it's worth jumping on and like I said I take a look at the lines it's 34 and a half I think when when those lines hang on that hook and they won't budge over it's it's it's it's indication as to it's indication as to what's going on with with that line and they're just it's just baiting right there and it won't go over so for me guys I think it's a complete pass stay away if you said hey you need a Free Bet On It uh the free bet that I would take would be Bowling Green Plus 34.5 but I'm not too passionate about it uh or Oregon State then I said Ohio State how about Oklahoma State Oklahoma State minus 10 Lions ran too far I'd buy back on Arkansas Arkansas is fine offensively they can score they always been fine offensively they can't stop anything I mean they're they're a terrible team they they can't stop a nose bleed I mean so you know that is a correlating part of it we have equity in this game we've got Ohio State's or or we have Oklahoma State's team total over this season so I have equity in this game I don't need to bet it and I think that if you wanted this number and when it opened up at six and a half that was the right number you're seeing so much action come in on these games this college football is becoming tougher and tougher to cap that will slow down though with NFL starting um that's why I kind of want to stay from this first week people odds makers don't divert any more resources to NFL they have their they have their Department it's not like they're going to get lazy on the lines but the movers and The Originators now have a wider perspective of things they have to C keep up on so they're going to miss a couple lines here and there I think Ohio I think Oklahoma State at minus six and a half were open I think that's a good play plus 10 I think you buy back in Arkansas now we pay attention to the line move movent last week line movement signified pretty much everything you need to know I mean the clv was huge last week and it all it didn't matter excuse me clv didn't matter it the line the way the line moved it was blowout in every direction USC for example six and a half closed at four didn't matter they won the game outright you have a couple other examples last week of teams you saw you saw um you saw who was the other team I was focusing on oh Oklahoma State yeah let's Oklahoma State open and then it got late Ste it got steamed really late to it was a 7 and a half 8 and a half and it got steamed to 12 and a half didn't matter they blew the they blew the doors happen so early season dad is going to tell us that if you see a line move and you want to follow it that's not a bad thing to do either so for me guys complete stay away I got equity in this game already I don't need to bet it uh I'm G to be watching it both eyes it's one of the games that I have circled and that's going to be up on my big screen so I'm going to you know kind of just wait my PS and qes here's a game I almost got on uh Kan State minus8 and a half it was 10 it got bought up real fast and then remember I told you guys pay attention to moves on Friday Friday is when the big money can start coming in it's when limits get raised this thing got bought down a point and a half and people on T Lane I don't agree with the buyback I still think Kansas State's a better team they've got a double Revenge factor in this game they've lost two in a rad to tane think tane is is regressed significantly and I'm not too scared of him I think Kansas State's a good program um Kansas State outside of conference seems to have a lot of success it's a spot that you do want to buy him in so I I would think that laying the eight and a half is fine there's potential that you could see this game stay close and it opens up late I don't have any money on it um one of the guy another guy in the space that I talked to a little bit he's um he's all over Kansas State and he got it at nine and a half and he doesn't care about the movement he says that it's going to be he said his power rankings have this thing so F so wide that it it's going to be you know it's not going to make a difference and so I tend to kind of think that you listen to some of these sharp guys sometimes and see what they say I'm not I'm staying away from it but you know there's obviously a counterbalance to it it wouldn't have got bought down to 10 it wouldn't got bought down to 10 listen guys everyone's computer and everyone's model is different and you kind of have to remind your pie of qes find people that you like find people that you trust listen to what they say don't spread yourself too thin I trust this guy a lot so if I were to play this game I'd take Kansas State minus eight and a half not for me though Georgia Tech Syracuse here's a prime example of an overreaction we like Georgia Tech we're big Georgia Tech guys we were we were we on Georgia Tech last year we on Georgia Tech week one we were on the ml we've been on Georgia Tech you know all for for the better part since Brent key took over we've been on Georgia Tech we're Georgia Tech Originators minus three I think it's becoming a I think you're paying too much of a premium on Georgia Tech right now and so for that reason I can't for that reason I actively can't take this game over under was it 62 and a half last night uh last night shot down to 60.5 you see a big dropped down Syracuse has brought a ton of talent in in the transfer portal they they're not the same team they've got a great quarterback play and I think that this three is is pretty sharp man I think you're paying a premium to play Georgia Tech did I say Georgia State I did say Georgia State didn't I I think you're paying a premium to play Georgia Tech and for that reason I think he sit on the sidelines on this one and I don't think there's a result that would surprise me in this game if you saw Georgia Tech come out here and beat the pants off him I would say yeah that makes sense Georgia Tech's good you know ETA Etc I I I don't see I don't see a problem with that and on the flip side of things if you saw flip side of things if you saw Syracuse come here and upset and beat the pants off I wouldn't be surprised either so I think we stay off this game Al together I think it's a good G I think it's a good place to sitting sitting marinate and um I think it's a sharp line I do pay attention though to the light line going under so I would just keep your eyes open on that the over under there that thing went under um the the the steam's telling you to go under so I would look it to go to the under here on this if anything we had a couple FCS lines open up uh as we're on air uh Minnesota first half probably a pretty good look against Rhode Island if it opens up for me maybe it won't open up for me there we go uh I think it's on fliff I like Minnesota first half today at Rhode Island uh fliff limit mean I'm a $250 limit on fliff so I'm just going to take that for 250 um I think it's going to I I'll play it at 10 and a half I'm pretty sure that's what it's going to be uh sorry guys I G to get on vantages of playing live or watching live is you get some uh tickets let's make this thing official and uh NCAA football you know fliff does Flip's really good Flip's done really good on their lines with FCS I'm not going to lie like I'm virtu I'm very impressed oh Kansas State just took some late action it's up to 10 now yeah see um up back to nine nine and a half yeah I I couldn't talk you off it man I mean I think see you got to follow these line movements man if you liked them eight and a half was a good number on them I thought so and uh as we've been on air it just it just steamed up so uh where is the why are you not populating that line for me UNLV minus 42 I think see that's overreaction itself right there guys Cal got bought up at Cal just got bought up at wow or Auburn got bought up at 10 that line moved a ton crazy to me well it's it's a 9:00 game so it should be here nine o'clock M time 12 your time Western Carolina favored by 10 over uh Campbell that's a that that they kind of threw the kitchen sink last week I wouldn't talk you oh here we go yeah- 14.5 I have no problem laying that orus 14 is- 120 yeah um let's go ahead and take that we're on it FL a great app guys it's legal in almost every state and um it's lines are good and bad you can catch some real wonky things but typically if you're trying to play it straight up aside it's 115 so they juice you hard so unless you can win at like a 59% rate you're gonna you're gonna lose money long term uh Tennessee Tech ug ug minus 53 down to 52.5 I'm not going to talk about this game I don't have anything to say about it like what do you need me to tell you so here's one I some stuff to say about some of the sharpest guys in the industry here are Northern Illinois and I find that perplexing to me um there was 31 and a half it got bought all the way down to 27 and a half 27 and a half got bought up on Notre Dame now it's at 28 currently um you know I typed these things out about 10 minutes before it go on air so lines can move currently it is sitting at 28 still minus 105 it looks like it's going to roll to Notre Dame 2 28.5 here Northern Illinois is competent guys they're not a bad program they they can they can do some good things so you can't you can't you know you can't just discredit them entirely and you know I think more or less what people are saying is when you have we'll talk about this with another game too when you have that big road win and when you have that big win and it's like a you know honestly it's one of the biggest wins Notre D has had in quite some time to go to Texas C&M win now I by reservations onm in general we've talked about that are they are they even really that good you know so you know I get it I get it&m is A&M but you know this Notre Dame spot you take a look it's kind of that sleepy spot in their schedule they got at Purdue next week I don't know how jacked up you're GNA get for Purdue but you still do have Purdue next week it's at sleepy spot it's the home opener uh your schedule's easy after this I mean you've only got at USC really that's kind of the trouble spot other than that you're you're coasting throughout your schedule rest this team's going to go undefeated and I wish I would have took him over 10 and a half that really the the breaker was that Texas CM game if you like Notre Dame game one you like them over 10 and a half on the season so um but people aren't still sold on Notre Dame's off offense I guess I beg to differ I think 28's great number and and I you know I don't like the way the line move I people that I respect the industry are on Northern Illinois like I said guys I don't have a ticket in I got one ticket in it's in Discord that's it and I'm going did we take this we take this not so I I don't know I think I think it's it's right there guys and Notre Dame probably wins this game um Notre Dame probably wins this game by 28 right on the number so I I think it's just good for us to stay away from this thing and not uh and not and not get on it whatsoever why am I I I have got popups like crazy I'm GNA clear history I'm supposed to use a brave browser I guess is what he said to use far all right cool um we'll pop that back open here just momentarily damn bada getting in on my Baylor Utah uh take Baylor guys you Utah's good don't get me wrong Utah home but I think Baylor football's back uh you know 14 half she has too many points in my opinion so I do like I do like Baylor here Baylor returns enough Talent U let me pull my notes Here on let me pull my notes Here on I got to remember keep talking to Mike and you know I think Baylor football is definitely a lot better than it has been we know we got we know what we're getting with Utah like there's no there's no conversation to be had about Utah we know we're getting with Utah Utah's Utah's a good program Utah is goingon to be good this season um but Dave Randa is there now for his fifth season last season was terrible but he returns 19 starters I think Baylor's like just decent enough we talk about offensive lines we talk about defensive lines Baylor's offensive line returns intact and to me it's one of those things that like how do we how do we just Overlook 14 half points it's not that I think Baylor is going to go to Utah and win this game not in the least bit but I definitely think that with all that talent coming back there's a lot of with all that talent coming back there's a lot to be said about this I mean you know they they returned uh where are my numbers at here they don't return a lot of depth but they do return a lot of starters if that makes sense so that's one thing that you kind of have to say though they're thin but they're healthy right now it's early in the season you're still healthy so you know while they only returned where they're 118th in the nation and returning Letterman their top Lettermen are returning and to me that's kind of like oh okay well until the until later part of the season comes back and they get injured and etc etc they're pretty middle of the road on on offensive line ranking but the thing about it is the starts are spread out they're not all they're not all just on one player if that makes any sense so that's kind of the difference here um when you see that you don't you kind of go oh okay the number is not huge but you take somebody like SMU we talked about SMU they have 65 start starters returning 65 offensive line starts returning 55 of them go to the center well on the contrary for Baylor they've only got you know I think it was 100 and some starts returning but they're all correlated through dispersed evenly so Baylor's offensive line is intact the return the return the whole offensive line everyone on that team um still a blend of of sophomores though so they're relatively young so I think better though 14 and a half is a really good look and if we're uh kind of sitting here and we're start seeing this line stick we might get on this one this is one that we might get on so Iowa State Iowa Iowa State's way more talented Iowa State's way better I always just own the series was at three three 3 three went to two and a half if you're G to take anything over under I know a lot of people talking about the over under 35.5 uh we'll pull up the data on it uh pull the data on the over under the series I had it all up um Jesus Christ can you fat finger anything else Boom D did you mean no I meant exactly what I meant because it got me to the website so my internet's really funky right now on uh maybe it's just this browser it's probably just his browser maybe it needs to update well whatever we'll we'll open up so um we're going we're going naked we're got to go with notes no browser necessary so that's all right let's try one more time uh oh it's that web it's my website okay cool it's not the browser it's the website so that's fine um but as I was saying like as as I was saying with Iowa Iowa State we can pull up some data on this they play every season and Iowa was owned them as of late and that's there's no secret there and the over under is whatever so if we take the look at the last 10 matches here Iowa 63 and one they're eight and2 overall 2 and eight to the under the under is now cashed in one two three four five it's five in a row and it's cashed out of eight eight out of the last nine I mean I'm not going to tell you to take it over an Iowa game that's for certain I mean you'd be crazy so Iowa State's better though I'm telling you right now Iowa state is better here's the thing this line is all over Iowa State last season at Iowa State you're getting three points Iowa's laying three Iowa comes home naturally Iowa's got a great HomeField Advantage I would say it's a four Gap they should be laying to six and a half seven seven and a half right there they're only laying two and a half line is shorter here than is there now you're going to say well Cowboy you can't Iowa can't lay six and seven they can't score fair enough I make I understand that adjustment but regardless you can't just stick this at a three so uh if this gets up to three I would take Iowa State again I I I would I was I had it filled out and ready to click this is probably like one of the three looks that was right there I haven't put anything in yet it's at two and a half still I haven't seen it roll over to three if it gets to three I'll probably take it three is a key number three is the most most three is the mo in the NFL three is the biggest number if you guys didn't know that more games are decided by three points in number NCA football it's not as big but it's still a big number um Middle Tennessee State Old Miss D you guys know my feeling on Old Miss they they L kein don't give a [ __ ] he don't give a [ __ ] he don't give two shits he'll throw he'll go he'll go he'll throw he'll go he doesn't care he's just GNA keep running the score up Middle Tennessee State looked atrocious last week terrible absolutely terrible so I mean you know how how is he going to keep winning by margin ah [ __ ] it he don't give a [ __ ] he'll just keep going he don't care his K will just keep scoring so I mean you know keep take keep laying the 40 points with kein and until tell he doesn't do it you know I mean middle Tennessee state's definitely a little bit better than Mercer from last week or whoever they played I don't remember who they played last week but they're still old you know still a little bit better oh Ferman Ferman yeah 76 nothing so um you know they're still better they got W Forest coming up the week after I don't think can can you get up for w Forest can you look ahead wa Forest probably not so um geez Middle Tennessee look at this okay look at old Miss's schedule here Middle Tennessee State at wake Georgia Southern Kentucky at home at South Carolina 1012 at LSU home for Oklahoma they're gonna beat the [ __ ] out of Oklahoma and then Georgia out Florida they they 10 and two is really in the cards here for this team I I think they have a hard time beating and and they have you know let's Circle that game when that line comes out on on 119 Georgia I think Georgia's Beatle this year I know they just waxed Clemson well Clemson's coming up here in three clicks guys we'll talk about Clemson Miami Florida and uh Florida A&M what do you want lay lay the points I don't care uh can't I I don't really talk about the FCS schools so Buffalo Mizu 34.5 mizu's Mizu is a gas pedal team too Buffalo's trash Buffalo's really bad I don't have a lot of Doubt on this I mean it's 34.5 um to keep congruent the 34.5 it won't go up to 35 why because it's getting bought back so I would just say whatever so um Miami is I mean like I said Miami probably wins it's it's it's right off the key number Buffalo Missouri probably wins it's right off the key number I wouldn't I wouldn't take either team right now I mean it's it's on the key number for a reason guys when you see that key number sit there and it just won't take over I tend to just stay away there's a lot of action we got 17 more weeks of football we've already made we already made 960 this week we can we can just chill we can just chill it's not there like I said there's other there's better looks you to see Tennessee Martin and uh can to the [ __ ] C you did I mistype this thing I completely missed oh I this is from last week uh here let's edit it out I completely didn't I completely forgot to put Alabama in here south Florida Alabama we'll just take we'll just go live south Florida Alabama minus 31 south Florida I like the over here south Florida south Florida can score a little bit this year so um and I know last season it was a snoozefest and South Florida kept it close I'm big on Bama guys we've got we've got equity in this game already we've got Bama to win the we got Bama to win the SEC we've got Bama to make the playoffs I got equ this game I don't need to get fancy with it we're good they got they got at Wisconsin next week then they got Georgia afterwards so you know how much does Alabama really want to show in my opinion South Florida's better South Florida Western Kentucky pretty comparable we saw him win 63 nothing I don't think one team significantly better than the other think I think I think if South Florida and Western Kentucky played I would set the line at a three and a half whoever's home and uh maybe a pick a at Western maybe a pick I would set it at South Florida minus three and a half at home maybe four and a half and that said it to pick them at Western Kentucky so I I think that that's they're relatively you know South Florida probably scores they grade they grade just a little bit better not much so um once again though you got a Wisconsin then you got a bye before Georgia I think the over's to play here I think South Florida can put up I think South Florida can put up what's their team total over oh team total over for South Florida I I'm at the point now where I think you're going to see um like I said week two over overreaction sometimes but I do think you're going to see some of these um bigger teams with bigger fish to fry later on you know week one is get everybody some reps and get get get get the motor going or at least it should be and then week two is kind of like hey we got to start treading treading water to stay healthy South Florida's team totals over 16 16.5 yeah I was going to put at 21 um I think they get 21 I like that I like that too South Florida team total over 16.5 they they'll score in the first half they'll surely score the first half maybe take the first half over 34 I that's good so uh first first half over 34 and that uh breaks out nicely too it's 64.5 the line keeps moving up so uh get on it now if you like it so I think that's that's good that's that's the right side of things so here's a good matchup offense vers defense Kansas Coach Leupold taking on Illinois fight along I I uh Illinois L good last week so did Kansas I guess if we're being all things all things equal right and um L I hate four and a halfs man I do I hate Road four and a halfs and I hate it in every direction it's the uh Vegas Zone Vegas is making you cap this game on your own it's down to four it was five and a half last night it's got steamed down to four I agree with the move movement here I think Illinois is the right side to play it in Kansas just keeps reloading I mean they're they're good man I mean they beat Lynden wood 48-3 Jaylen Daniels healthy but he didn't look that great he was N9 for 15 and you know they run the football Kansas can run they just keep running my buddy Donnie uh the strength coach is uh the strength coach is actually one of his best friends and he get us he got us on Kansas two years ago three years ago they just run so I I I think Jaylen Daniels is jayon Daniels not Jay Lin Daniels jayon Daniels there's two Daniels well one of is not they're not both in there uh jayon Daniels he's not I'm we're still waiting for it if you're nine for 15 for a buck 48 one TD one interception with a 48 quarterback rating against lynen wood L's defense is really good against the Run they have been for like three years I think Illinois is a live dog today if Kansas can't run the football and you're relying on Jay Law Daniels I think I think I think it's coming I think you're going I a world to hurt it's a 4 pm game opened at six and a half rolled to four I would buy back at three can't they got Central Michigan next they don't have they don't have to look anything you know uh Alm looked great it was Eastern Illinois so how how great do you want to how great do you want to look you know I mean held Eastern Illinois to 49 to 22 carries 49 rushing yards and and and I know it's Eastern Illinois but still I mean we talk about this rushing defense good on Eastern Illinois for not giving up on the run like yeah I mean in theory you still you still ran the ball 22 times and you're down 45 nothing so I like Illinois a lot let me let me pull up their CH I haven't I haven't really um what over in preseason I don't like their scheduled I didn't like their over under I think the over under was like seven and a half or something like that so I ne didn't like the over under and I know that they're playing the Big 10 and um yeah they've got at Nebraska at Penn State at Oregon Michigan at home at ruers and then at Northwestern oh Northwestern you broke my heart last night oh you broke my heart I I I so badly want that team to win I had no skin in the game I didn't care one way or the other but I like that field man I want I was like talking my wife and kids I was like hey if we go out to that Oregon Purdue game like maybe we Buzz up to Northwestern and go and go watch that in that temporary Stadium why why just just leave that Stadium there I don't know if you guys have seen it it's [ __ ] it's gorgeous it's right on like Michigan the nicest Stadium of college football right now the temporary Stadium at Northwestern is like the nicest Stadium college football wean go watch it it's it's gorgeous it's right on the lake I mean and and let's be honest Northwestern football is never going to be like a jumbo Powerhouse you got to fill it up that's not who they are like just go ahead put 30,000 seats there call it day so um Illinois still returns enough on the defensive line to me I I would take Illinois I would take Illinois not uh Ohio State and you know Ohio State Western Michigan a little step up from akan not much have about it whatever you want to do I don't like I said I I I don't really these these large spreads not much to it so Tennessee NC State I I would take NC State at home I know they looked really bad against Western Carolina first half they had a new quarterback in Grayson McCall played a completely different style of offense for six years now his seventh year of college you have him play more of a pro style offense and brother than go from that spread that he played at Coastal and so even though he's you know 36 years old and you know um and he's got a ton of talent and he's been in college football and he's a smart guy it still takes a minute to get adjusted and when it clicked it clicked he looked good and that was against Western Carolina and I know Western Carolina I get it all I get it all but um I still think 10 points at home is too much nine points is home at too much I think it's a great teaser pick you get that to 15 a lot of funky stuff there and Tennessee is gonna try to score a ton of points and Tennessee does what it does Tennessee is more potent at home you buy Tennessee at home you sell them on the road no one's really sold on Tennessee LSU buy a million today I gu so how much Nicholls said what is this like a 75 nothing game 6 6513 something like that maybe LSU by a million today today Revenge game come back home pissed off you blew the game the quarterback looked great the offense look great I think USC's defense is just good they have all the talent in the world USC just been good here's what I do like I like Oklahoma minus 28 I I I'm I'm Houston's bad Houston shouldn't be in the Big 12 right now Oklahoma you know how good is Oklahoma uh they played Temple week one temple temple a special team special teams special players right isn't that what that guy does my my 16-year-old does what's the guy's name some guy with glasses um but yeah so I mean tipple's a special team I don't know how much you stock you put into beating beating them but Houston's not good lines down to 27 and a half it's fluctuating right there and they got twoa at home next week then they got Tennessee yeah I I think you can buy one more week on buy buy one more week on Oklahoma here I'm fine with it I'm not afraid of laying the points Oklahoma Oklahoma we talked about it last week Oklahoma a large spread at home covers they just do Clemson it's minus 16.5 this opened up at 19 no opened up at 20 steaming all the way down dude this Clemson thing is real guys this Clemson fallof needs to be studied the refusal to participate in nil and transfer is kill well not nil excuse me they do pay the refusal to the dabos Sweeney's refusal to part participate in the transfer portal is going to be the death of this Clemson team if I'm on the board of Clemson and I know dabo's got you a title I understand I'm [ __ ] done we're done you don't want to evolve to the time you're gonna die you're gonna absolutely go extinct every smart person I know in this industry is on appstate they said though to buy back at 16 and a half so I mean you're right there on that buyb so actually bet if I pull the lines up now I bet you it's I bet you it's back to 177 um every smart person I know SP person I talk to on this thing um this is this is this is not good Clemson's not good um they're all on up State they got up State almost you know some guys some guys bought the half a point to the 21 to the 20 uh but it's at state or nothing man the the Gap is not there anymore they say Clemson probably can't win a game by margin they're so poor offensively and it makes sense I mean what have we seen from Clemson offensively in the last three years and they refuse to go the into the portal dbo says he doesn't believe in it he does have a high retention of people that stick around good for him but who cares I mean at this point you know you're just it ain't good it's no it's no good it's no good so um I miss Louisville on Jackson State Jacksonville State that's 28 and a half I would take Jacksonville State Rich Rodin scored don't don't do not for a minute give up on Jacksonville State after one bad show against Coastal Carolina poor game plan poor there 28.5 I buy it I really would Louisville's got Tyler Shu Tyler shuck a quarterback he's another guy that's been in quarterbacking for 16 years in college football he's all right but he's not the kind of guy I'm not I'm not going oh my God he's gonna put up enough point I don't know if Tyler shuck can beat a team by 28 points the division one team at that so um we can leave it at that why are my lines disappearing is anybody else's bada lines disappearing the Clemson line the Clemson line is nowhere to be found anymore oh there it is it's 16 and a half it's going to roll to 17 any minute though it's juicing on it's juicing on Clemson so uh boys of state of Oregon I wish I wasn't an Oregon fan because I think I'm have Rose clutter glasses on but I really think Oregon first half anything under 14's a good look I really do so you know sometimes as you guys know I I'm I'm the biggest skeptic on my teams Knicks Ducks Jets I I I'm my skepticism runs so high on them that I feel like I over I don't give the credit like I see a look on it and then I talk myself off it entirely because I don't want to look like a homer so every number in the book's going to say that Oregon's be Oregon's going to be up like 35 to 7 3514 Oregon's defense was great last week let's take some positives Morgan yeah they look like [ __ ] I left I left my bar I was pissed off I [ __ ] stormed out said I'm not watching this trash team couldn't take it anymore I was so [ __ ] mad at this team couple things so some Insider info supposedly the offensive lineman had a party the night before and they may or may not have been partaking of Libations and yeah 20 21 18 19 year olds uh metabolism bounces back quickly sure but still you know how that goes man these are guys even Idaho is all scholarship players so supposedly that's the rumor that's why the offensive line didn't look great you did have two injuries you had one injury and one one suspension on the offens of line they're back they're healthy if need to be Dan L's exact words they're Health they they're available if we need them number two um if you watch the rewatch The Game which I did because I'm a glutton for punishment they really didn't leave their base offense they only they only opened it up a couple times and rightfully so I mean what's the point of Stein to open up the offense even more if if you don't need to just leave it at that and it was Gabriel's first time in organ's offense and he didn't really throw the ball past 20 yards but three times so there is potential for they G to open up the offense more you saw Boise State last week at Georgia Southern and that thing was an oldfashioned shootout what is final score was like 56 to 40 or something like that I don't I don't have right here in front of me I'm not gonna pull it up but regardless it was a million over 100 points were scored in that game or right out 100 points were scored in that game at Boise State's defense this year is not going to be it their offense yeah their offense will be fine their offense be fine but Oregon's defense last week was phenomenal and yeah you're say against Idaho sure I get it I understand you're 49 point favorite by 10 I get it I understand the only two the only two touchdowns they scored were trick PR trick plays organ's defense was great and I always say this look at the box score the box score will tell you more than the final score Oregon did not convert on Fourth Downs a couple times the right tackle was who's the backup and was at that party um he he was false started every five minutes it looked like it looked like it looked like the Baltimore Ravens I mean just slip start so the Homer and me and the cap let me say the cap in me is saying hey this first half is a slam dunk line you probably won't if if or would have won last week by margin you would have been 28.5 here you would had a pce 17 the first half line up 10 and a half is a slam dunk line in my opinion now the Homer in me is keeping me off it because I'm maybe pulling a bit too optimism on it and I'm doing the overreaction but I think the books overreacted on this line it opened up at 21 slipped all the way down to SLI there D there were somebody said somebody I swear to God they said there were 17s out there that's [ __ ] disgusting 17 would be a great number now it's medling at 19 I have no interest in the full game it looks like it's going to roll a 20 here I think Oregon puts one on today ties one on today um they've got the Civil War next week which is against Oregon State could there be a slight look ahead potentially maybe they slow it down the second half so I think first half would be the way to go here uh Na Arizona I don't I don't know Arizona's defense is bad plan it simple um I would stay out this game I wouldn't I wouldn't touch this game to be honest with you I would just just sit on sideline we're good we're good 36 .5 Northern Arizona sucks though I mean they're really bad so uh you this is a great overreaction game this line opened up at 23.5 Utah State's nowhere near good and now it's teed up to 28.5 by the time this gets around every one of their mom's going to tease this in the over and um you know for the night cap game it's it's a it's a 800 PM my time start so 11 o'clock West Coast start man I'm at 42 minutes I'm over I'm I'm over um yeah I I kind of I kind of agree Chase I mean I I think Oregon like yeah I agree like don't overreact to week one like my point exactly new quarterback new system everything uh USC minus 28.5 it's too much at this point guys USC this is we talked about Notre Dam in all F talk about USC the road big win you come home that's the spot you don't buy it doesn't mean it's not going to cover if I got have got 24 yeah I would have taken that 24 like I was frantically clicking and we talked about it in chat I said hey USC is going to be a great bet this next week if they lose well the market reacted significantly they bought up every decent number now it's at 20.5 it's a hard pass couple games that I didn't talk about that I want to talk about these are the three games that I'm be watching crucially and these are the three there's Washington State at home minus one versus Texas Tech was two and a half now it's down it got cobbled up with it touched three was three and a half now it's down to one I think we can take Washington State here this is like I said there's like four spots I got circled I haven't bet I'll put the notes I'll put the notes in chat so if you're in Discord go ahead get in if you don't um links in my bio go ahead click that um Washington State minus one I I and I see that there's some some Originators on Texas Tech we've went over this we've went over this a million times life's [ __ ] different in Washington state there's nothing around these kids go to a hotel and this hotel's like the 1970s Hotel I know exactly what hotel they stay at because I've stayed there we follow the Ducks team up there it's not it's in Moscow Idaho it's in Moscow Idaho go look up Moscow Idaho is one [ __ ] hotel it's a red lion and it's like stuck in 1975 unless it's got remodeled recently which it very well could have but I doubt it it's not like the influx of money came into that Community they do have casinos up there they're weird [ __ ] casinos they're like trailer they're like double wides gutted and stuck together so there like four double wides put together as a casino it's [ __ ] different and you know not to get into race but you've got a bunch of guys from the south Texas boys black guys they go up there dude it's not they're never seen that way it's cold it's weird well right now the time of year is not cold this was taking place in November different conversation but it is completely completely different than anything they've ever experienced we were having dinner we were having so put this in perspective we were having dinner in in in uh we were having dinner the other week with my buddy and um and uh he's from New Orleans he made us this gorgeous crawfish boil and it was fantastic and and and and you know he's he got this damn sub accent you know you talk like NOS you can hear everything he just speaks like no he's B Braes New Orleans he said he went to Phoenix one time and he saw all the mountains and [ __ ] he's like what the [ __ ] I had no idea this was real dude he never he'd never left like like the the inner cities of New Orleans and we did he like would go to Houston it's all the same down there it's all flat it's it's it's all jampacked land it's all swamp there's not mountains there's not gorgeous scenery and things like that it's gorgeous in its own right I mean I go I go down there wow this is pretty you know all the all the Live Oak and all that stuff but it's a culture shock and when these guys go and have this culture shock when you go and play in places like like Washington State like Idaho like like um you know Utah I guess to an extent you know when you go and play in these different places it's really a culture shock for cultures that haven't been outside of their area and Texas Tech is lck's a little more rednecky a little more and so you know this was Houston oh yeah if Texas Tech was okay in Houston I should say I think the the line the line stopped at minus one it stopped at minus one for a reason I think people wanted the field goal it's going to be a shootout it's at 65 I think Washington State though money line Washington State money line I'm big on Washington State impressed what they did at Portland State so uh game number two that we got a circle on Nebraska Colorado I think Colorado's live here I was all over Nebraska think Colorado wins the game I really do I'm sorry um and I know they look like trash last week I get it and they didn't they and they didn't look the spot and I get it all uh I was big Nebraska kind of didn't impress last week in said this is overreaction Monday so we can't put too much stock into anything so we're not going to but Good Golly Miss Molly it's kind of like Colorado might not be as bad as I think defensively yes but I think they can score Nebraska I don't know if Nebraska can keep up pointwise like even against a bad defense does that make sense does that make sense I know Matt rules got this game circled the line stuck at six and a half it was seven and a half seven six and a half and I don't know if Colorado is necessarily the public side on this beted I have no clue I don't really follow money movers because I don't think you can find accurate money one way or the other I don't think anyone has the definitive like here's all the money from every sports but it's asine to think and it's also asine to think that that information was privileged that you were privileged that information that it would be any sort of relevancy you not really these books want you to have nothing you have to originate your own lines come with your own theories your own data they're not going to give you information so um I have no clue if it's public or not I think Colorado is the right side I think they're live talk today I don't think Nebraska can keep up with them now there's a chance Nebraska blows him out sure but I don't think keep up but if that gets back to seven at any point I think it's a good buy um some of the sharp guys some of the sharp guys I know they're on Tulsa plus seven and a half take that that's that's supposed to be I'm not on it uh I trust these guys some of the some of the smarter guys in the industry I know um they're on they're on tuls they got a eight seven and a half is a good number two game two games that I am watching that I want to bet aside but I feel like once again I'm not seeing it clearly UTSA and even money against Texas State I feel like the books might have overreacted on Texas State's poor performance and I think UTSA grades Higher One of the one of the uh models SLP pools that I subscrib to um a guy he's got UTSA rated as the play of the week and last week his last week his play of the week cashed so you know and his week before week before he didn't have any act week zero but he was one of the guys that kind of started talking to me about Nevada and I was like [ __ ] man this guy makes a lot of sense so I mean you know he's got UTSA as great as as minus six in this game so you're getting a touchdown so that to him he said he blindly plays his he blindly plays his model at just at just like a quarter of a unit he doesn't blind he doesn't play it as a full play he still does his other do due diligence but when his model puts it in red he BL blindly plays it he's more of an NFL guy so um which I don't not I don't have anything to do with the NFL I don't I care less so um and then the other game I'm watching is East Carolina ODU I've got equity in East Carolina we all have equity in East Carolina I I think that you're gonna find out a lot about what's going on with that whole conference you know ODU went down ODU went down to South Carolina and kept the game competitive Eastern Carolina blew out Northfolk State I think I think Eastern Carolina could blow the doors open on this game but you've seen so much buyback on both sides both lines are at one both both the away teams are at dog so I I've got them circled I'm not betting it so um complete rundown what what are we closest to getting on we're closest to getting on Washington state Washington State money line at minus 115 I think that's a really good look I don't hate Illinois plus plus4 I think Illinois plus four is a good look I think Kansas's inability to throw the football is going to come back and bite them in the ass significantly I think you're saying ah [ __ ] like that ain't good um I I I I would I would like to get a position on Michigan at seven but I I can't find it and I'm not going to pay minus 120 so I think Iowa State's the other good look at about plus three I know that Iowa's dominated but I I the line is telling me more than the the lack of the line being you know four five is telling me more than I need to know in my opinion and so I think that Iowa State I think Iowa State's a good look so I'd say those are the four looks that I would most definitely pay attent to um if and then Oregon minus 10 and a half first half but I I feel like it be a little homery on it so um put these I'll put I'll put these out right here as the top looks I'll leave on the banner I'll leave them on the banner below um we talked about WSU I'll put wash State ml ill plus 4 and then we talked about Oregon first half - 10.5 and then we talked about oh [ __ ] I think you can just lay the chalk LSU chalk I think LSU Chalk's a good [ __ ] play I honestly I do I like buying these teams off that I like I like buying these teams off that kind of [ __ ] I think it's really good um I'll put the I'll put the uh um we'll put the we'll put the what's it called game in there too the the Toledo not too excuse me Tulsa plus 7.5 we'll put that in there because I think like I said I it's it's from a guy that I really respect and um he doesn't do shows and stuff like that so he just is he just has his he has his little telegram stuff and he just kind of you know and it's not he doesn't he he has a model that you have that that he has a model and I've just been chatting with him on Twitter a little bit back and forth he's like hey you can come and join Telegram and I don't have a speaking r i just look read stuff so and then Iowa State Iowa State State uh Plus 2.5 now I'll say plus three I'm not going to advise 2.5 so I think that's I think this is I think that's this as clean as it gets if if you want me to give you a full card that's what I bet that's the closest that's what I'm closest to betting and uh I think that's pretty much in order too we'll probably get on Washington State who am I kidding it'll be it'll be 4:35 o'clock out here and I'll be say all we haven't had any action yet so uh if I got anything live we'll do it in Discord talk to the mic this time so you can hear me the whole time and um yeah we'll do better next week next week next week things open up a lot I can't wait to see the lines there's a lot of things that I'm like kind of looking forward to so next week will be a little bit better guys uh the show will be on Wednesday next week it's not going to be on Friday so I'm not necessarily gonna have closing you know we're not able to see the markets move the Friday Market move what things move um so that that you gota kind of pay attention to that though you'll have to do that yourselves so we have a big Festival in town and uh it's I I partake in it every year so I'm not going to be able to uh be active on the socials and then I have a golf trip the week after so it'll be back toback Wednesdays for the live show but I'll still have every um you guys know if I if I have a play I'll do a video on it so don't worry about that that that's that's never changing so I enjoy that when I find a play we we do the videos and uh hit the like button um subscribe share dude my uh last I've got consecutive uh consecutive uh videos on the mark game over 100 views so yeah I know it's not big stuff but it's big stuff to me so anyways all right guys thanks so much tuning in catch you later