[Music] what's going on everybody welcome back to for the Millie I am your host Alex blickle joined by the great two gun lots of success here in week one of the NFL season we had two subscribers hit for over $100,000 on DraftKings using the brand new gpp scores and then two gun you followed it up with a 50k performance of your own in pick six which we will talk a lot about so I couldn't be much more excited for week two I don't know if you're feeling the same way uh yeah I'm definitely excited about week two it's funny because I did I did okay I pick six in week one but I just got slaughtered DFS like I I lost money to be clear I got annihilated a week one like yes I had one good pick six hit um and I I really want to talk about it's funny because I got the minimum on this five and five like the payout minimum uh so I'll talk a little bit about um what happened there and it's about the Deo um line is basically what happened but uh yeah so it's funny how you know maybe I'll do a little bit more pick six this year a little no I think I'll do I'm sure I'll do the same amount as EFS but yeah I'll definitely take better look at DFS let's just leave it at that I mean that's that's the nature of DFS right and it's also the nature of how you and I both approach DFS where we're trying to have that one huge hit throughout the season and if we get that one huge hit it doesn't matter if we lose all of our money in the rest of the week so we're definitely good there uh we've got subscribers in the YouTube chat already so shout out to you guys and anybody else who wants to drop in as The Show Goes On please do so you can drop questions about Showdown tonight about pick six basically anything that you want to talk about we are here to discuss with you all so we're gonna start once again with some Showdown discussion um tugun I don't know how you feel about this slate but when I look at this slate I see number one in our projections both like our actual projections of what we expect in the game on the ftn data side and what the field is going to do pretty heavily on on the Miami side of things and my initial thought is I kind of just want to Stack Buffalo and go from there it's funny because my initial read is to just stack Buffalo like I just kind of think they're the better team yeah and I'm not you know I'm I'm also do the sports betting contest a lot uh and you know I have that article that comes out I didn't bother getting I'm not including this game in there but I kind of like you know Buffalo plus three just as a straight bet you know with h i mean moster out H kind of not 100% and the Dolphins just they kind of got lucky against the Jags whereas I feel like the bills just started off bad but kind of control that game and we shouldn't use one game as an example but I just think this bill teams pretty good I I I I don't I don't see the reason to stack m i mean I feel like it's a pick them type situation so if the ownership really is heavily on Miami that's a very clear go to Buffalo to me the one thing I'll say though is Josh Allen is a little bit of a pit machine so it makes having like a dolphins even Dolphins defense kind of fun but other than that I think I kind of like buffalo in general Al obviously I love James Cook still he just didn't get a touchdown last game but he's gonna he's gonna get those touches I just can't get off the guy yeah so it's it's an interesting one because I'm I'm with you in the sense that I think Buffalo is the better team but our numbers like our dvoa numbers our betting model all of that actually says you know Miami is the better team so I do feel a little bit awkward going against that because I do have so much trust in those models but my just personal you prior coming into the season is that Buffalo's a better team and I saw nothing in week one to kind of dispel that and I think part of the the reason why I like buffalo in this one is because I I do think that we have seen a very different Miami team over the last couple years depending on the type of competition they're playing they have absolutely dominated worse competition and they have struggled against better competition particularly when they play better defenses that are able to pressure the quarterback without sending a lot of blitzes like Buffalo can so I think that's the angle that makes makes me feel okay with going against the model because that sort of you know difference between how a team performs against good competition versus bad competition is extremely difficult to model in so I feel again pretty good about just going to the Buffalo side in Showdown well it's uh it's often um you also have to remember like our stats guys are not DFS guys like they're thinking like what is a better team but doesn't make it the better DFS play because if everyone is really heavy on Tyreek and they're just kind of abandoning the you know they want tyreq they want Tua probably want aan at this point well that I guess they'll throw on Josh Allen that leaves them nothing no salary for anything else um so all these U Buffalo skill players uh Dolson King Kade maybe James Cook uh they're they're just going to get a bandings and no one play the Bill's defense and even though talk about how Josh Allen a turnover machine those defense is actually pretty good like they seem just put up a lot of points somehow and Tua can turn it over as well so it may from an ownership standpoint make more sense to sack the bills even if the dolphin were the better team and that that also brings up a good point because even if you think you know Miami is going to do better buffalo skill guys can still produce more although in this game I almost think it's the other way around like the bills have so many guys the ball can be spread out to you could see Shakir Coleman cancade Samuel all having a handful of receptions but none of them having a huge game whereas the Miami offense is very much more concentrated in Wadd and Hill and then of course the running backs as well although that's the big big question mark that still uh we need an answer to on this slate is which of the Miami running backs are actually healthy what kind of role can we assume for hn there were a couple games last year where hn was questionable was active and played and barely had any role so just because he's ruled in doesn't mean that we can be 100% confident that he's going to have you know that rb1 type role that we saw a week ago so lots of uncertainty there do you have a lean on any of the Miami backs as of now I think I'm have Jeff Wilson every single one I don't see how I'm not at 2600 why not like at the very least he's the candidate for the moster role I don't see any way h gets more snaps than he normally does because he's not 100% if you don't like take a guy that's not 100% and suddenly increase his role yes H's Gonna Get You know he might have 35 to 40% snacks and then you know uh Jeff Wilson has 40 to 50 and Jaylen R has 10% and with that number it's like ites doesn't mean you don't play H you can still play in lineup or two but you definitely have Jeff Wilson in every single lineup yeah there's there's also an element of even if CH does go it's an angle injury for somebody who is the dynamic player he is because of his speed and his agility his burst so if the ankle injury takes that away not only is he then less effective but then it's also like okay why does Miami even want him to be on the field if he's now at more of an injury risk and because you've taken his great skill his great power away from him he's not even more effective than Jeff Wilson or uh right so um I think one big question that a lot of people are going to have is what makes you so confident in Wilson over Jaylen Wright assuming that Jaylen Wright is healthy or is active today um for one thing I will say I agree with you that I think it's Wilson and I think that it's more of a trust factor from the Miami coaching staff from McDaniel just knowing that Wilson can do the job that he's being asked to do but I'm curious if you have any other thoughts there no not really I don't really have any other thoughts um it's more just along the lines that jillen Wright was inactive Jeff Wilson was active Jeff Wilson's been with the team for a while we haven't seen anything or heard anything about Jaylen wri uh like my understanding is that Jaylen Wright is more of a is he more of a scatback not so much of a PowerBack like I'm not that like good of a football guy and knowing stuff but like what is his you know he has he has the same type of speed that moster and um aan have maybe not quite to that degree but certainly he has more of that level of burst than Jeff Wilson and so I I think I think you're probably right in the sense that like let's say that Anan is a surp is a surprise scratch tonight then I think the most likely answer is that Jeff Wilson has most HS role from a year ago and Wright has a chance role from a year ago maybe not exactly but I I think that would be a pretty good characterization of what those two are like and so assuming that Anan is in and is just limited a little bit then I think it's you know probably a pretty even mix between Anan and Wilson where Wilson is probably the more likely guy to be in the goal line role but they they gave a lot of those carries to aan a week ago so maybe not but H's definitely you know he definitely might get goal line work I mean I think what's going to happen is A's active and he's playing 50 40 50% snaps and then Jeff Wilson's playing 30 to 40 to 50% snaps and Jaylen R plays like a little bit that to me just is that the simplest exp like guess of what's going to happen based on what we've seen and what makes sense that's to me is the simplest simplest answer so I'm going with that I don't even mind people playing Jaylen right at 2K I just what how is Jeff Wilson not gonna pay off at 2600 even if he gets 50 yards and like a catch for five yard that's 6 and a half points that's still okay it might not be optimal but it probably is going to fit in there one way or another it's kind of you know I don't expect him to put up Jordan Mason numbers but he could by the way um I still think he's I still don't see how I'm if you said 5K yeah I can see definitely like N I don't know at 2600 especially since you can use that salary with you know the Tyreek Hills and the James cooks and the Josh all of the world I just don't see how you go wrong using them yeah I think for comparison sake you know Ty Johnson had the third down role in week one for Buffalo but he did very little with it Ray Davis also was mixed in he had three carries one nice reception my personal thought is that Ray Davis's role is going to grow throughout the season but I don't think he's completely taking that third down role from Tai Johnson just yet particularly not on a really short week like this this so you know the Wilson role tonight should be so much better than either of those guys have you have some other guys down here like Dawson Knox certainly has touchdown equity and so maybe he would be a decent pivot maybe John Smith would be a decent pivot or I think the other way if you do want to fade Jeff Wilson is to say okay what if nobody way down there is necessary and you know bottom out my line love to like want to fade him I think people just be like I don't want use him because I just he just isn't been in my lineup like I just don't think he's like I I don't think every like Jeff bman isn't going to be 95% even like Jordan Mason wasn't I just feel like Jeff Wilson should be 80 90% plus rostered and he won't be so to me it's very simple roster Jeff Wilson and use your your you know salar somewhere else and the funny thing is like you know often in these like two-point games I talk about wanting to do the the 5-1 stack it doesn't work as well when you have a Jeff Wilson because you have all that extra salary you don't need to save it for defense and kickers and stuff like that um you still can but it's just not I I just don't see how you get off the guy I I just don't we have Wilson at 46% in mme contests for his Flex ownership how high do you think it can get in single entries and larger States what what is about his captain only 4% in mme which I think which I think follow at 50% that tells me like I just need to [ __ ] Max inter [ __ ] tonight like I should put more money in well so my thought is that I think he could get to 65 70ish in in yeah I don't think he's 70 I think your guys are pro you guys's ownership is really good and like I don't think I would take under 50% on je on Jeff Wilson but I'm not taking over 60 like I think he'd probably be in the 50 maybe low 60s he's not going to get above 70 even Jordan I thought Jordan Mason was be 100% okay in the I thought be at least he was closer to 80% yeah I was shocked and by the way we would have killed it if you hadn't listened to me stupidly talk about Mike Williams instead of doing um Allan Lazard you know what I'm saying like we would have killed that Showdown if we I did have Lazard I did if you didn't listen to me and let me ran about stupid Mike Williams see that's what I'm saying do simple approach sometimes like don't overthink it with the Mike Williams like lazard's gonna play a lot people hate Lazard put him in that was the right mentality and that's how I feel about Jeff Wilson Jeff Wilson's gonna play he's cheap people aren't going to use him enough because of shiny new toy this that whatever stupid reason they're not going to play him as much as they should put in Jeff Wilson that's the simplest explanation of what to do tonight are you then suggesting people use Wilson a captain I do have him a captain in a lineup i r out have three lineups I might do four lineups I'm going to have him captain in one or two I think that's fair um I always think sometimes the answer to that question isn't necessarily what you think of Jeff Wilson himself it's what you think of you know how how balanced can the production be from the Star players in the game is it is it likely that you're going to need both Tyreek Hill and Jaylen W is it likely that you're going to need Josh Allen and James Cook things that that nature and if you if you want to be able to fit as many of those guys as possible then the Jeff Wilson uh Captain makes sense basically I think more often than not the the decision of whether to go way down like that for Captain comes down to do you want to get an extra of the star players like if if you have a lineup that has three of them and includes Jeff Wilson and the flex chances are if you switch Jeff Wilson into the captain spot you could get a fourth stud so it just depends on on what you think uh the studs can produce but personally I don't think I'm going to go to Jeff Wilson as long as hn is in because I don't don't know that I feel like his ceiling is that high because again I I do think hn will have a decent role I think hn will have plenty of the like high value snaps where it's they know they want to throw a screen to the running back they have this play designed that they think can break off a 20- yard chunk and I still think that's going to go to aan instead of Jeff Wilson so um I think with Wilson You Are if you're G to make him your captain you better feel like he's the one getting the goal line touches I mean you make him your captain because of the goal line touch or you make him your captain because you expect a high-scoring game and um you're not you you you're only using position players you don't use Jeff Wilson as your captain and then start putting in kickers or a defense or whatever you put in Jeff Wilson as your captain for the three3 right now like Jeff Wilson is in my yeah is in a balc 33 lineup um it's interesting you say that because I I would almost say the opposite think of the think of the ners game the other day Debo didn't have a huge score iuk and KD were kind of nowhere to be found Garrett Wilson didn't go off Bree Hall didn't go off and so Mason as Captain was you know such a better play than if we had this like big shootout where one of those receivers is well over 100 yards with two touchdowns or something like that so I don't know I what I'm saying you can if like let's say Jeff Wilson gets like 15 points you still have Tyreek Hill you still have you know Josh Allen and a receiver and you have Tua like un let's just say Tua like through a touchdown or two to Tyreek or someone else you're just able to get everything in that way yeah yeah I so my point is that in a high scoring game the likelihood that one of those Superstars separates I just think is higher like you want that the flex I get it I I just I think I don't think about the like 5,000 mme entry like I honestly don't even think about Captain that much as much as like consider like who which guys am I using that's a good point that's an interesting point yeah I like that I do also like sometimes think about Captain if it's a guy that I think is very under owned and I love that that's what I'm more thinking about Captain kind of like maybe adult and King K tonight um it's that's a perfect segue because we started the The Showdown discussion by saying we kind of want to be heavier on the Buffalo side so which of these Buffalo guys do we actually really like obviously if you're going to the Buffalo side Josh Allen is in the lineup whether he's a captain or not maybe uh remains to be seen but I think if there's one aspect that our ownership is too low on it's Allen's Captain ownership I think um our our new formula for The Showdown ownerships is not giving enough credit to the quarterbacks with rushing upside the way that Allen has and that's particularly noteworthy for their show or for their Captain ownership so particularly in single entries smaller contest sizes I think Allen can get up there close to uh but not quite at Tyreek Hill's level of Captain ownership yeah um it's interesting because I just I love James Cook just so goddamn much and it I was just reading Caleb's article and it acts like he's just never the optimal Captain it kind of like kind of got to me there a little bit like maybe I'm you know maybe I I shouldn't do that like I don't I have like I said I have three lineups I'll probably have a fourth I don't have King Kade as my captain yet um I just feel like I should um and because he's just the guy that could get the two touchdown passes you know yeah yeah I wrote 10 under 10% today and one of the lines that I I wrote and I I could see you saying it as I wrote it was week two is kind of all about taking advantage of people's overreactions to what happened in week one and the way that cancade was covered in that game by Arizona just made it so difficult for him to do anything and Allen was able to take advantage by just finding the open guy because of all the attention being paid to cancade could very easily be just a totally different game plan from Miami in this one and then maybe cancade has you know 10 receptions for 120 yards and a touchdown and is clearly the right Captain to have so I think that's a a sharp route I think you can pretty much take a chance on any of these Buffalo guys but getting back to your point of just sometimes the simplest answer is the best answer if we already think that we have a contrarian build to the game where Buffalo just kind of takes over and and wins this game almost comfortably perhaps it probably just makes sense to put Josh Allen in the captain spot and then load up on several of those skilled players cancade and cook and Samuel or some combination like maybe three of the big five if you will um I think is probably a really sharp way to build yeah um I think just another way it's just basically you have to think of it as like you're spending like 45% of your salary on more on the bills or sorry you know like 45,000 like spending like 80% of your salary more on the bills it's just way instead of thinking like 51 51 51 42 42 51 think of it as like percentage or salary yeah because um these outside of Jeff Wilson these Miami guys are just super expensive MH and the other thing I like is uh not rostering Tua and rostering the kicker uh yep Jason Sanders that's what I'm often doing in some of these like like I'm not really doing the 5142 I'm generally doing it more based on salary and like if I don't have to uh having the their kicker that's kind the more of the route I'm going because I just have so much extra salary um with basically always having uh Jeff Wilson that I just don't find the need to um you know really load up on defense kicker this that like I I I just don't need to do that do you have any preferences between Shakir Keon Coleman and Curtis Samuel even you can even throw Matt Collins in there not really I mean I H I'm not really using those guys I have Curtis Samuel and one because I'm I just think no one's going to use him and he had he only played a quarter this s week when he they're clearly ramping up his workload yeah you know the same thing happened to DeAndre Hopkins like we didn't talk about him at all because he wasn't G to play that much and they already said they're going to ramp him up we don't know like what happens to the public is they wait until he actually has that 60 to 70% snap to start using him it might be this week and he might two plays and then boom he's at 3% over so that's why I using him in one lineup but Shakir I think kind of got like shakir's never really ever done the type thing where he blows out a game Matt Holland's like come on he's probably not even G to catch this week Keon Coleman like he is probably be the wide receiver one so I can see using him but I feel like again let's go with the simplest explanation Doon KK played close to 90% of snaps he is their best pass catcher probably going to see he had a bad game he's probably going to have a good game I'm smashing his overs on pick six often I I just like dton King Kade it's very simple and with Jeff Wilson I don't really need to get super cheap anyways yeah I I think I I agree with all that what I'll say about um Curtis Samuel is I I thought that he was going to be like a huge huge piece of this offense coming into the season and I still think that he's going to get there but he was hurt in the last couple weeks of the preseason and I think that that got in their way of Designing and scheming a lot of things specifically for him and now it's a very short week that they're playing on here's a secret for everybody out there Buffalo plays next Monday night against Jacksonville so the chance of being really early on Curtis Samuel in an island game as a captain something like that will still be there for us a week from today actually a little more like 10 days from today and I think that that's the route we want to go because I again I love his potential in this offense I don't think that they were going to be able to introduce a lot more for him for this game based on what they had uh last week and just the fact that he's been banged up so I think we really really really want to be early on Curtis Samuel I think it's you're Sly this is like an Alan Lazard Mike Williams moment we're having here and maybe I'm gonna listen to you this time and I think I think think Curtis samel veteran pick six his his over under is 17 and a half receiving maybe that's if he gets 25 think um I think if there's a rushing PR plus receiving that would be even better but um I'm not seeing it yet but they seem to be adding stuff like I think I think they're kind of waiting to see if hm's active yep okay they have hm's up there now at 83 and a half for rushan they don't have C Samuel for that they just have him for receiving but I still think that's a good that's a good line I like that over and I think I'm gonna take C Samuel out of my one lineup as a like Mike Williams alen lasard situation I'm probably gonna roster him next week you know trying to Sam is still in the Mike Williams category then which of the other Buffalo receivers is alen Lazard is it K as a Keon Coleman Al laar is ke okay okay okay I think he's probably a little bit too good to be I know but people hate him because he sucked last week that's enough yeah fair you know and he's kind of expensive so it's GNA keep the ownership down yeah I I'm with you there so I think uh the other thing that I'll say is I think Keon Coleman is worth a shot because when you get into these types of games I I even saw a stat that Josh Allen I think is five and0 on Thursday night something like that I think when you have a short week you can't do the same type of game planning and so sometimes it's just who can make the one-on-one plays a little bit better and we know that Kean Coleman can do that and I think that's also why Josh Allen has been so effective on Thursday nights because he's so good at just the like unscripted part of offense and so I like that route a little bit particularly if you have Josh Allen as the captain part of that is you want him throwing some touchdowns Keon Coleman certainly has a chance to uh catch a touchdown and then like if you're if you're playing Allen is the the captain you probably want multiple guys so you go to King Kade for the PPR upside you go to Coleman for the touchdown upside I think that's a pretty strong start to any lineup hey if it works it works I but yeah I think um Keon Coleman's definitely shown some signs of being their Alpha you know wide receiver one so I yeah he's probably the one to go to even tried reluctantly probably put him in there instead of well let's see what his salary at um heart where's Keon Coleman at 58 pretty it's kind of a good amount I I've even explored some lineups that try to get Allen with all three of K cage sh Shakir and Coleman it does work it's not spectacular but it's it's not impossible it's certainly not as uh difficult as I originally expected um of course Jeff Wilson is a part of that I think the the real magic trick would be able would finding would be finding a way to go Allen can cage Shakir Coleman and also get the uh the Wilson fade you clearly feel like you just don't even need to try and fade Wilson no you he's 50% you fade Wilson if he's like 80% like what do you my concern is that in in in small single so for example like one of one of the most important contests that I'm playing tonight is a $75 I think 67 person satellite for a $4,000 ticket in that contest I think that Wilson might be closer to the 80% number that you're saying you would fade him at than the 50% number we have him projected for in mme contests I don't know man I just don't think people are that excited to play Jeff Wilson not with h back I think people like I so I think a big part of it is what news does or doesn't come out about hn like if if we hear that hn is going to be on a snap count tonight then I think that Wilson could get up there to the 70 80% number in those types of contests if we hear that hn is you know uh ready for close to his usual role then I'm with you and I think Wilson will will just be one of the more popular value plays but not somebody that people click on immediately so we'll we'll just see his usual Ro his usual R is not 80% snacks yeah so I think yeah I don't we'll see it's it's part to tell I think the final point on Wilson is a lot of it is going to come down to the news that we get and so just get yourself into the Discord if you can we'll be talking through that all night long uh leading up to luck uh anything else on Showdown before we turn to pick six no I think that's it cool all right so the big thing that we want to talk about with pix six actually let me run through um some of these comments someone just dropped I don't Cubs is that is that some player or are we talking Fantasy Baseball all of a sudden I'm not sure um but oh drop chuba there we go okay uh yeah I think I would rather have chuba because we don't think that either of these injuries on Miami are going to be uh very long here's a bull take Allen Knox plus cancade takes down the Millie we didn't talk much about Dawson Knox to G so before we go to pick six why don't we talk some Knox do you have any interest there as just a guy catch a touchdown no fair enough I I think that if you're going to KNX Josh Allen has to be your captain if if Allen's not your captain there's no reason to play Knox because Knox is much more likely to be useful in a game where Allen throws for three or four touchdowns so that's GNA be my big take there let's go two pick six and the big thing I want to highlight to gun is your win this past week couple things to note here the 51,000 $700 that's pretty darn cool but the real key here and the thing that anybody watching can duplicate is check out that payout way down at the bottom in real small print 13.4x the typical payout on a six pick is I believe 21x but if you play Pick six the right way you can get these huge huge payouts so tuon why don't you take us through a little bit just your thought process that went into this pick what was the timing of it I'm assuming this came after the metap here's what happened the uh payoffs for pick six after mcaffry got set sat were high because everyone had the Debo over okay Debo got 78 yards on the dot so he lost or 77 I forgot what it was this thing missed by you know a yard and everyone was taking his overs now everyone before Debo's over under was about 10 yards less yeah so before CMC set that everyone everyone's still taking his over because everyone's always taking overs but that over hits so I had a um I had a one that was five for five but it had a CMC in there so I got voided so went from a six to a five and that one but it hit the minimum okay I got one that went way over the minimum and one that went for the absolute minimum they had to give me pick six credits and that just goes to show you how much one player and everyone being on one player matters because nobody once CMC sat took the Deo under and that's basically why the P six pounds were good um because everyone okay because the pck six P before almost everyone had CMC in their pick six before he sat right like you're you're taking him one way or another so there were very few live pick sixes um in in that in that you know that were round and almost all them had to Evo over so really whenever everyone feels one way about a player it's definitely better to go the other way yeah and I don't really know if that's happening tonight I I think it's in general my pick sixes are generally geared towards the under for tonight's game because everyone loves the over and just over this over that I don't think it's going to be as Extreme as how much everyone was over on Deo but in general I think on the under is the way to go yeah in a smart way not like just clicking under under under under uh probility and to that point I think you correlated really well here so you have the Debo under but you also have auk under perie under KD Under so like one of the ways that Debo would have gone under I think for a lot of people would have said is oh maybe it's just an iuk game or a KD game but you said okay the entire offense is just centered around Mason and you had Mason's over Mason had this huge huge game on the ground because he did so well on the ground it also kept the ball away from New York and so Garrett Wilson after that first quarter just kind of totally disappeared the Jets offense disappeared so this entire six pick play told a very specific story and that specific story is exactly how the game played out and so to your point it's like you you weren't just correlating but you were correlating in a way that was leveraging what so so many of the people playing pick six thought was going to happen and that's why you end up with a payout five times as high as what is expected yeah essentially um it's generally you you want to cor like Pi six when it's one games it's all about correlating and the idea is correlate a game script that people don't really expect yeah and that's with that why don't we talk some Pi six for tonight uh what what what do you think people are expecting to happen in tonight game and what picks are they therefore selecting to start us off with it's weird I figured everyone was going to hit the Tyreek Hill over but his it keeps just going down which is funny so I'm kind of happy I locked in some other stuff that's over or under on him that is um I feel like people are going to generally want to click over Josh Allen passing yards or over two a passing yards and just in general some over all these receivers I'm not really sure otherwise what people are going to love like there's just not that one love player and if it's that one love player you think it would be Tyreek Hill but maybe his number is just so high that people aren't clicking over on it I can see aan over 30 I'm not sure if I'm going to take the under on it though um 30 and a half receiving yards I mean I think you see this being game become of a boring ass Jeff Wilson Run game as I made that clear maybe even de you know even h Run game uh another one I like is actually Josh Allen under rushing ARS we um I think people just love seeing Josh Allen run yeah but our actual our tool says that that's a just a good one to take is like you know he's projected for about 28 yards so but I think let's talk more about like correlating our well let me let me start here because I think that a lot of people are going to look at this Trio of bills Coleman concade Shakir they're going to look at last week's game and they're going to say why is Shakir not the highest of the three and they're going to start with this pick right there khil Shakir more than 40 and a half receiving yards so I want to start by going less there and then we talked early earlier about thinking that Curtis Samuel 17 and a half is a good one like to me there's really strong correlation here between a less than on Shakir and a more than on Curtis Samuel what do you think of that start all have that actually in one of them literally already I have leadership here under in two of them one of them I have yeah actually both of them have Curtis Samuel over um you could also throw in Dalton King Kade over or uh Keon Coleman over as well yeah don't you don't even have to take a a position on Josh Allen receiving ORS or passing or that way by the way um I really like this just the Josh Allen throws an interception because he throws an interception like 80% games I like that um yeah let's see interceptions thrown so yeah we could go could go more on Allen there um I mean that's the closest to like a pure like you know was it you know like you know like it's a 50-50 take but it's interceptions aren really correlated with much but that's just a pure like you're probably gonna be rhy on this I think one of the things one of the they do correlate with is just overall play volume so if Allen's throwing a pick or two like that that makes it a lot more likely that Miami ends up running 10 more plays in the game than Buffalo for example and so one of the things that you could do is then say all right because I think that Allen's gonna throw a pick and give the ball right back to Miami at some point in this game now I want to go higher on aan rushing yards or Waddles receptions something along those lines so I don't feel spectacular about the rushing yards in Anan I think I'm a little bit more likely to go to receiving yards on one of these guys or or even just probably probably receptions instead um anything anything standing out to you is just a really good individual pick that would also correlate well not with interceptions um I mean I I feel like James could I I don't know I just like James C too much I like his over on both his yards 17 and a half or receiving and then um or six se and half rushing MH that has nothing to do with interceptions though is the thing yeah yeah in fact I would almost say the uh I would almost say both of those are inversely correlated because whether it's handing off to James Cook or throwing short to James cook those are the type of plays that are going to make it a little bit less likely that throw here's another thing I like that's correlated is um two a completions because he whenever a player throws a lot he threw for 38 passes last week that's a lot everyone just expects like people think of targets and Ys they don't really think of like oh wow he threw for 50 times like that's probably not gonna happen yet and kind of same thing last week he threw his his his is at 33 and a half passing attempts I'm not taking a position there but I can take a position at 22 and a half completions and then go on the unders under on that and then under on some of these other guys because I think people I I don't think people really hammering completions and receptions so much but it's just if they're going to do it they're going to do it the wrong way do you feel me yeah yeah I agree Allan by the way 18 of 23 in the first game now there were a couple weird game script things there that uh that led to a pretty big um well let fewer plays than expected only 60 for Arizona 58 for Buffalo think about it J Allen interceptions thron might be inversely correlated with tua's completions because the idea is Allen throws a pick six and or whatever it is and like Miami just runs the ball like if anything it's cool but I just don't like the rushing arts on H hand I mean you can maybe do that yeah I man I feel like there there's one thing that I I didn't have the time yet this week to actually go check but my inclination was to say that in week one we saw a lower average dep of Target than usual and we saw a lot more just kind of like short passes whether it's screens or short passes against zones that are meant to keep the ball in front of them um particularly we saw that on Sunday night like remember that that Rams offense was just let's throw the ball quickly and almost treat the short passing game as an extension of the running game if we see that sort of thing it's that's the type of script where you could very easily get get more on completions for quarterbacks and you would then be able to very confidently predict which uh receiving which receivers or tight ends or running backs would be the beneficiary there and also go more on reception so that's one thing that I'm kind of exploring but both of these guys at 22 and a half is pretty high so again Allen had 18 completions in week one Tua only had 23 um so it's it's tough It's I think I think they're pretty well priced at these numbers yeah but it just the correlation between completions and receptions is perfect like it's just perfect so it's some great to stack and I think people just aren't going to take unders on that they just aren't so it's a perfect stat like it's one sometimes it's okay to take stuff that's okay like it's the Josh Allen interceptions like I said very likely to win but terrible at no one's taking the under on that no one's and you can't really stack it so it's good for just like an add one now two completions and receptions that is perfect for correlating perfect for ownership so it's kind of a little mix and match thing and it's always better to have more pcks because that's what everyone the dumb money's in the pick six no one wants to grind out pick threes pick fours you know the the the dead money is all on pick six most likely maybe some people do pick five pick four but my bet is the dead raison pick six do you have any any favorite pairings on the lower completions lower receptions by the way Allen just fell to 21 and a half completions from 22 and a half it's funny because I don't really use um wasn't using Allen um I mainly been using Tua for that um although honestly like Allan's probably more likely to happen like he's just not going to throw the ball as much yeah where where he runs the ball a lot so I think that's actually oh you can't do um two guys in the same one but like I think Allen lower on completions with um one of the Buffalo receivers maybe Shakir lower on completions or lower on receptions and then a higher on James Cook's rushing yards I think that correlates extremely well um I don't necessarily have a favorite among the Buffalo guys though which which to take the less receptions for um no I don't just uh Buffalo got less receptions just here I would say I don't really liking the other ones um but uh for for the Dolphins they're only letting you do it on Tyreek Wadd and Johnny and I honestly prefer just to use two of them instead of uh hitting all three because it's just kind of you're asking a little bit much there yeah do you have a do you have a preference between the three I probably would do under I probably Tyreek I mean just because they're giving me six and a half um and like you know when he gets those long bombs like that's just only one catch you know yeah I think that I I think that I lean to Wadd there I mean I do lean towards I don't know I I'm just not a waddle guy like I like in baseball like I barely almost no waddle I just feel like he just doesn't do anything when Tyreek is playing actually yeah um just looking at his game log of last year for Tyreek Hills like he's gonna hit that seven most you know slightly more than halim but how often about like how often does Wadd do it when Tyreek is playing you know one of the things we nailed uh in pick six last time in our pick six discussion that is where all the field goals attempts from uh Detroit so any any kicking Point thoughts here in this game basically like if for anyone who who wasn't tuned in that time what we said was there's a good chance against this Rams defense that Detroit will be able to move the ball pretty well but then not be able to actually get the ball into the end zone um or actually sorry I think I confused myself I think we were talking about the uh the San Francisco game that they'd be able to move the ball well but they wouldn't be able to get it into the end zone against that great Jets defense so anything like that kind of ring a bell here for this game where you think one of these teams is going to be able to move the ball well but not necessarily punch it in the end zone each time I mean I think that's definitely can happen to both these teams in this game I I don't know maybe I LIF kickers too much I never found myself doing the under on the kicker I always do the overs on the kickers and I like to pair it with under on passing touchdowns I mean that was perfect last week or you know on Monday with birie like the kicker was the MVP um and pretty didn't throw a touchdown even though they put 37 points or whatever however much it was so yeah under on two of touchdowns and over on Jason Sanders kicking points yeah it's something I kind of like turn yep I like that quite a bit um so we can can go ahead toss that in here um I would also say it's it's weird though because like one thing I would love to be able to do is say less than on Josh Allen's passing touchdowns and more on his rushing touchdowns but obviously you can't do that but like that that's probably the strongest correlation of all if you were able to get that somewhere maybe on Sports books you might be able to do something like that in same game parlays uh which would certainly be worthwhile if they're not accounting correctly for that correlation yeah I mean you gota always remember with these same game harlay that the sports books they're just not going to let you win like they're not going to give you like correlations and not punish for it so um and again that's what I like about pick six is that you are allowed to win a pick six because you're not playing against the sports book you're playing against other people and say what I think that my favorite like correlated just bucket of of picks is going back to that uh kind of original thought from you where we're going with completions and receptions less than and we're going to Buffalo so we're going to go more on James Cook 60 and a half rushing yards less than I I think it's probably Shakir but man I I almost think it's actually Keon Coleman that we should be less than on just because his average at the Target is going to be larger so both well the other thing I was going to say is I think that Coleman is more likely to go less than three and a half but I think Shir is the more likely guy that people are going to be picking overs on so whether that's hearing receptions or receiving yards I think so many people are going to be banking on Shakir that we want to just go with less than on Shakir you were already with that so I think you're you know you could also if you're messing around with receptions like do unders on those two and take over on pade yeah yeah 100% that works so yeah like this this right here would corelation with these things is very good Y and that's why you want a few things that are really heavily correlated when you're doing six because it's just so hard to get six like I talk about How likely Josh Allen is to throw an interception you know maybe it's 80% chance like I mean I'm making that number up but obviously that's a very good one to take it's hard to get six 80% things right like uh what is point a to the six power like low it's that's one and four that's still actually really good but like um you know you know 6 to the six power is 0.004% yeah okay so obviously if things were 50 if you had if you're okay like if you're betting straight up and and you're getting 60% like a sports B just straight up bets you are killing it you are right if you're right 60% of the time you're going to get banned and limited Within like a week okay but getting six things independently right at you know at 60% chance is a 4% chance that means you're G to win one out of every 25 times that's not that good right so the way that you just gotta keep keep stuff some cor you got to keep good nice nicely correlated that's really the key correlation and ownership that's what this game is about yeah correl and payout correlation and payout for sure and um so I it's if we could boil pick six down into just one sentence it's figure out what everyone else is trying to do and then correlate against that so that you're also leveraging the field and and that's how you get the 100x payouts that that TGA nailed on Monday yeah and like it's it it it was a weird week because yeah it was all about Deo it was all about Deo Deo was hit the over on the five for five on on all early stuff so payouts were low MH but if it was late if the guys came in late they didn't have a Debo like they lost on their Debo so I got paid well and you got to understand how badly I got killed in week one Alex like I lost even after that pick six win like I I won a little bit of pick six overall I lost thday remember around hey worthy whoops um I probably lost more money than most of you guys making a year you know your jobs so it's kind of nice like thinking like hey I sucked so bad in week one at everything like remember what we talked about that you know you know chief game and I talked about low scoring and no worthy like wrong um remember how much I talked about Jaylen pulk wrong I talk about fing Tyreek Hill wrong uh but I still want to six so that's the nice thing is um it's a different game it's Unique and most people just don't know how to play it they don't understand they're playing against other people they think they're just making random choices out up and down and they don't understand it's about correlation and you know PS so yeah I think the the outch pick six player is going to a site and trying to find like the best props available and they don't realize that if you're just trying to find the best prop and then applying that to pick six you're playing the game incorrectly and so that's that's what we're trying to he that's what we're here to try and help everybody do is not just find the the picks that they think are most likely to win but also learn about the game that you're actually playing and that's just something no one understands yet and they're not going to understand it for a year or two this is the year to win a pick six maybe even next year but like definitely you know the The Rake is high in this game it's 20% although they give you so many promos that the effective gets lower like I don't know about you I have this thing that do $10,000 of entries get $1,000 of credits now I don't think most people are doing $10,000 of entries so I'm feeling that's a two gun special but they will do that for other people where it's more like in line with how much they play like $500 50 or whatever like that so I don't know I just I really think that no one and I just don't know how many of the sharks are even playing yeah besides like me you know like a high volume Sharps yeah yeah I think I think you're right and and we had this conversation a little bit last week but again like there were there were people that I would very much consider sharps in DFS like just traditional DraftKings play that have been talking about pick six on Twitter and have very clearly been talking about it in what you and I believe to be an incorrect way that they're they're you know they're looking for just the picks that have the highest percent chance of hitting correctly without any consideration to what being on that pick will do to their payout so as you said time is now to get in and actually take advantage of this game I mean I haven't like looked at the drill down of my contest and like who's in it and what um to see like you know the other guys I know like that I respect as NFL sharks I remember playing for baseball just to learn the game because remember I don't know [ __ ] about baseball like I don't know any I mean I don't even know who who like like the pitchers like that I know that pirates guy was like he's like really good or something like that like with a mustache like I didn't know anything about I know anything but um I remember looking at you know the the they did this one promo for a week of like Get You Know win a certain amount of points every time you get a right thing and you get like some pick six credits and I didn't notice any players like high volume DFS players that like that do all the sports like there's a few guys I know like I only really do NFL but there's some of the guys that are big at NFL that do other sports too and I haven't seen them playing yeah yeah I'm with you all right um let's do this on every Monday and Thursday now this show is gonna end with a hot take for The Showdown itself so do you have one or do you want me to start it off because I've got one ready to rep if you you gotta a moment to think about yours my hot take for tonight's game is that Keon Coleman scores a touchdown not a super hot take but absolutely uh would mean that he is likely to be optimal tonight at just 5800 $100 on Showdown so Keon Coleman touchdown is my hot take my hot take is uh Jason Sanders outscores Tua I love that I love that so much uh it was not that week one by the way um what it was not that far off from happening in week one was 10 10 well you know it happened you know with pie and you know the so but so if you look at uh if you look at tua's final line he had 21.6 fantasy points but think about how many of those came because there was an 80- yard touchdown to Tyreek Hill right so you have you have four for the touchdown you have an additional three for getting him to 300 yard bonus and then you have a little bit more than three more on the yardage points so without that touchdown to Tyreek Hill they're only like a point and a half apart or something based on my uh mental math in this moment but but yeah so I I think it's a it's a hot take that absolutely has a chance to happen especially if Sanders ends up kicking one or two more field goals than he had last game so um by the way I think those two hot takes work pretty well together if you're out there trying to handb build some lineups for tonight's Showdown so with that the most the key one of the Keest bills is always take the kicker instead of the quarterback y the only time you do that is if it's a 51 and you're just expecting like 40 to five and that's just not this game or 40 to three I guess I should say yeah it's it's weird too because in that ners game it's like one of the one of the very few times we've seen that play out in such a way where you still wanted to be on the skill guys of the team that kicked all the field goals just because P was terrible yeah py didn't do squat because he didn't get any touchdowns yep all right thank you everybody for tuning in we will be back Sunday morning behind the pay wall two gun will be here on a free show 9:30 and then we will be together talking the entire DFS slate for DraftKings at 10 o'clock Eastern for all the subscribers every Monday every Thursday you can find us here for free at 5:30 eastern time thanks again for tuning in we'll catch you next time