Trending searches: who is predicted to win the 2024 election
so if you believe Allan lickman kamla Harris will become president of the United States now I'm going to explain why he says that and we're going to go through each of his points but I I just want to give a caveat I did this before with Peter Zion's predictions uh here and then Biden dropped out so after Peter Zion predicted Biden will win for these reasons uh and I went through them one by one and they seemed like reasonable predictions and I'm not trying to uh push for either candidate here I'm trying to help you explain and understand context but we're going to walk through this now what's interesting here is that if you look at the if you just Googled kamla Harris Trump polls and you just look at the headlines who do you think will be a better president NPR polls shows why the stakes are so high for Harris and Trump in the debate the debate is tonight by the way Trump and Harris neck and neck after summer upheaval uh election 2024 live updates Harris and Trump face off in the in the debate Harris vers Trump new presidential poll are these once loyal voters rejecting a polling Guru Nate silver predicts Trump has 64% chance of winning new poll finds Harris ahead of trump okay so where are we well Allan lickman is a historian and he believes he has the keys to understanding what's going to happen in a in a presidential election and why so let's look at what he has to say this is from an article in the hill notable elections forecaster predicted vice president Harris will win November's election according to his model of 13 Keys now he's predicted nine out of the last 10 successfully so let's see what he has to say it's worth listening to Alan lickman a historian who has successfully predicted the outcome of nine of the last 10 presidential elections revealed he believes Harris will clinch victory over former president Trump his election model is based on 13 true or false questions that ignore polls and pollsters okay so here are the keys these 13 includes Keys include these now I'm going to go through the keys but you'll see it highlighted I'm going to actually read the rest of the article and then we'll come back to the keys so the the highlighted ones break for Trump and the other ones break for kamla Harris okay the keys absolutely will work they are the constant Northern Star of political prediction lickman says he found that eight of the keys are true and those favor Harris three of the keys are false and they favor Trump now the White House Party gained the House Seats in 2022 midterm elections the Democrats did better than expected but they still lost House Seats so that first key is false then the sitting president is running for reelection Biden withdrew from the race costing the Democrats this key and so it's false again the incumbent generally has a huge advantage over a challenger and third the the incumbent Party candidate is charismatic this is a very high threshold key you have to be a once in a generational broadly inspirational candidate Harris has not met that standard so this key is false he's saying Harris is not charismatic enough to qualify for that particular key okay so a little bit more lickman said the remaining two keys including a foreign policy failure or a foreign policy success could still flip in Trump's favor before the election foreign policy is tricky and these Keys could flip the Biden Administration is deeply invested in the war in Gaza which is a humanitarian disaster with no end in sight but even if both foreign policy Keys flipped false that would mean that there were only five negative Keys which would not be enough for Donald Trump to regain the white house because he has to have a majority of these 13 keys in liman's model while he predicted Harris would win the race he previously said Democrats only chance of winning was if Biden stayed in the race so he thought that Biden could win Biden didn't even think that Biden could win when he dropped out okay the polls were just breaking against him and Biden thought you know I I just I have to give he didn't want to give but he did for the sake of the party okay 13 Keys now again if it's if it's highlighted this is breaking for Trump if it's not highlighted it's breaking for Camala Harris so the 13 Keys include whether first the White House Party gained seats in the House in the midterm elections and it's for Trump that's one down the incumbent president is running nope Biden stepped out kamla is not the same as the incumbent so false okay those are two for Trump third the White House Party avoided a primary contest that's true Biden sailed right through that process it was not contested and then Kamala won the party nomination when Biden dropped out without any real fight so that's breaking for Kamala a third party candidate is running well yes and no it looks like Kennedy just recently dropped out and so that's not on the table anymore so I'm not sure how that plays out here uh short-term economy is strong okay so this is where we're going to have some problems with the short-term economy is strong and growth of the long-term economy has been as strong as the last two terms okay so when you're looking at the economy you have to break it up into two different parts the Democrats will tend to point at the health of the economy by talking about the stock market and it is very true that the stock market is doing reasonably well at least at this point but if you're asking the average person about inflation a stick of butter at Walmart is now a dollar each for a just a stick not the pack and so many people feel it in their pocketbooks and if they're not political but they feel it in their pocketbooks I think this one actually might break for Trump in for at least a certain segment of the population but even that is not enough to give Trump the advantage okay the White House has enacted major national policy changes okay that's that's fine uh there is no social unrest there is but it's so marginal the social unrest is like limited to college campuses and things like that about Palestine there's really not anything like the tea party or black lives matter or something of that kind of caliber going on right now so that breaks for Harris as well there's no scandal in the White House well I don't see any forthcoming there always could be an October surprise but as far as we know there is no scandal in the White House that breaks for kamla the incumbent Party candidate has Charisma no she's not really that charismatic I know some people will argue with that but he's saying no she's not and that breaks for Trump still not enough to get him there the Challenger is uncharismatic now this is the flip side of that if you ask Republicans especially Maga Republicans they'll argue that he is very charismatic just like some Democrats would argue that kamla might be charismatic now in 2016 I would say that Trump was more charismatic because he was less known but after a presidential term he's a known entity and he's charismatic only to his base not to the broad population the White House has had foreign policy success or the white house has had foreign policy failure now this one's interesting we know that Israel Gaza is a quagmire and that's hard to get out of but if Ukraine could be turned into a success if the Biden Administration would arm Ukraine with what it needs to be able to really hit back at Russia and show that Ukraine was on the move they could turn that into a foreign policy success and win that but they're not willing to do that because they're afraid that some sort of escalation will turn people off and so they won't do anything at least not before the election now again lickman says that the keys absolutely will work they are the constant Northern Star of political prediction I don't know if he's right he's predicting it he might be right he's been right nine out of 10 times so what do you think put it in the comments below I'd love 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