Top 5 Airlines and Cruise Lines

hello good morning everyone and welcome to this episode of Derek invest I'm your host Derk Miller thanks for joining me today so um a couple things first um we're monitoring the indexes we talked about this yesterday uh it's very important right now what happens to these indexes as we reapo those high prices that they were sitting at um that is at the point at which we'll get to evaluate if that drop um that occurred in the last few weeks was a shot over the bow a legitimate warning for something to come or whether or not uh it was nothing more than pushing some fear into the market to get the uh weaker hands less knowledgeable hands retail to sell so that um the institutional um buyers because that's what they would have been the institutional money managers uh Traders investors had an opportunity to pick up at lower prices um therefore able to drive the market to a higher level so we're keeping our eye on that we talked about it yesterday uh it's been pretty smooth sailing as I put last Monday when we had that uh gap down on the S&P it was gap down Monday morning at 3% and the NASDAQ was gapped down uh Monday morning at five and a half percent I immediately put out a video uh to buy that was clearly um just that was nothing more than driving fear into the marketplace um and so we should see a nice Cruise um on the qqqs back up to 490 I have that posted um on my on all of my social media but if you didn't know that now you do so we're just watching that play out uh I think I had that September 2nd I believe uh was my target date um to hit those marks looks like we're going to hit them in time uh everything's moving smoothly so there's something else that's always kind of buled me about the market and kind of makes me makes me laugh a little bit so I thought I would share it with you which is that um there's this seasonality that will take place with certain industries so right now we're coming out of Summer and we're about to head into fall so what you'll start to see is a lot of natural gas companies start to take over and move higher and oil companies take over and move higher thought process being we're heading into winter there's going to be usage a lot more uses if it's going to be a colder winter there's even more usage um and like you know with your Airlines and your cruise lines when you're heading into summer people are buying them because it those prices tend to push a little bit higher so I thought what we would do is we would just flip that on its head and let's take a look at the top five Airlines right now and top five cruise lines and let's see if they're giving us an indication that um that that the they're going to roll over because that's that's the counter effect of the rise every year in these different Industries and I thought this would be fun to talk about today I always try to keep keep it fresh uh if anybody ever has any ideas or something they'd like to see make sure that you're shooting me a comment or a direct message or an email or something I'm always happy to cover uh different areas all right let's jump into it so top five Airlines and cruise lines uh let's get moving we'll go through Airlines first I'm gon to share my screen with you all right let's go here there we go we're going to hit Delta I did American Airlines yesterday so it is it is it is here um I did do it however so we probably won't cover American again because I know American will be here wow so um this might be a little disappointing I'm not sure so Delta was Delta the airline that they just served all that moldy food on I think it was I think it was Delta if you haven't seen this you you have to check it out it was some flight to Amsterdam um out of the US and they served the passengers moldy rotten food and you know sadly these passengers ate it and everybody started getting sick I mean how do you not look down and know that you're eating mold what a weird thing I think that was Delta um but in any case it just looks weak as a stock period I mean obviously there was no run in the summer this must be where they ate that mold back in May I'm I'm being serious about that it must be although you know something to take a look at is this decline here the decline in price is um is very uh methodic and smooth and I'll tell you what I mean by that if you take a look here at where these gaps are as you see price is falling and then gaps filling see it FS the Gap you come down here's a couple of small gaps here is a bigger one right here and then you can see it filling here and now we're coming down and we have more gaps down here at this low and as you can see we're coming up and filling that Gap and we're reversing again uh this is a strong indication of a legitimate move downward uh and I would not say that it looks like it has any signs of stopping at the moment um yeah it doesn't look good I mean you had you have a couple of very large Footprints here institutional Footprints uh that should have pulled this thing out of its downward move I mean this certainly should have uh and it did not it actually simply continued the price drop I this I this might be related to that mold thing I don't know um if I were guessing I would assume I'm not going to look it up um but so Delta you're out um but you were never in so I I I don't know that there's there's much to be uh much to be discussed there let's move back out to a monthly I don't like to look at this stuff out of order I look at every stock the same way I break down uh here's Southwest I break down um from the longer term I want to see what does this thing look like over the long term and then break it down into shorter term time periods because I don't want to skew my thought process when you're going in to buy something hey is this long-term shortterm intermediate term whatever it is and so you want it you want you want the to framework that picture in your mind as well moving from longer term to Shorter term uh because if you get excited about something you saw shorter term it can skew your longer term Vision whereas you can say look this Market or this stock looks terrible in the long term but short term hey I see some moves here um I don't know why and maybe it's just me but uh I'm able to process things that way and if I go in the reverse I can skew uh my vision I can skew what I'm seeing Oh gosh this one is not good either I mean this one's worse than Delta I think Delta was doing good until they serve that rotten food maybe they were stealing from uh maybe they were stealing from Southwest now here is something EX extremely interesting and you're going to like this now this is what I was just saying so in a longer term literally the last chart was a weekly chart and I said wow look how gross this is it looked horrific now I come back and I see that there is a monstrous Gap at 34 this is only one piece of the puzzle okay call It 33 whatever I'm actually we're gonna we're gonna I'm going to make a chart out of this this is worth this is worth noting to somebody um this is worth noting for everyone now here's what I find incredibly interesting so as price breaks down what do you see you know the first thing the most not the first thing the most important piece of the puzzle anytime you're breaking down any position any index any crypto any anything is our institutions playing in the game are they involved and if they are in fact involved in what manner do we does it appear as though they are involved so um let's take a look at what we see here so as price comes from 33 uh and it drops what's the low here actually we can just call it the close here as it drops to about 29 so that's a monstrous move right uh that's what 330 that's four I mean you're looking at 12 13% drop there is a massive institutional footprint massive trading activity okay but it doesn't hold right we can it's that's at $29 today we sit at 2623 price rallied a bit right it rallied into the the the 30 Mark which is not chump change then you had a major gap down and guess what you see you see another institutional footprint all right and that brings you down to the 27 Mark so a bit lower price drops off a bit more a bit more down here to 24 25 then we see another institutional footprint and that's up there at 30 and that appears to be selling doesn't it now here's the only sneaky part that I want you to understand and this comes down to 25 years of experience this gap down was used to elicit fear and that is why the the preceding the following footprint was on the low price and that is a massive footprint on this chart which then lifted price and look what happened again another gap down here what this is is this is a search for retail investors for week hands how much pain can they take and where are their shares to be picked up now you can see on this first gap down which took you into the $26 Mark they picked up a lot of shares and when I say they I mean institutional investors the more knowledgeable hands the people able to create a volume Spike like that able to create that level of trading activity uh off of a price that is has dropped from God knows where now they now what happens again so price of course bounces I mean what else is it going to do and there's another gap down and guess what you don't have the same volume down here why because most of the weak hands got shook out over here so your weaker hands that were going to bail on this on this stock they're shaking out how do you know that because there was no buying to be had basically at the same price at that same price there's just nothing left so what you want to do then is you want to see okay you have to make another run at it if you're an institution this is a mental game and the mental game is based on retail's emotions so what you do is you Gap that price back up to 30 why because anybody that maybe did make it through this second price drop here they're thinking we're back at 30 and what do you do then you wall up them one more time give it to them again why because you're going to bring price back down here into this 26 level to see how much is there how much Supply is there is there more retail to quit is there weaker hands that are willing to bail so that you can pick up more shares as you can see down here I don't know that I would call this like an an incredible surge but I would say that this is probably over and you are now looking at a run up to 33 so we are going to in fact label this because this is this is a really good example of how uh the strong hands take the weaker hands emotions and just you know use them and abuse them I mean that's that's the goal here let's let's we're GNA make this a little smaller yesterday I felt it was pretty darn big um okay there we go so it is the 16th 816 2024 um whether you play uh Airlines or Cruise Lines or not what I hope you gain from these sessions or exam just like this where I'm able to show you exactly how emotions are toyed with oops we are on a daily chart here and this thing has taken a real beating so the target date the target date is going to be year end I don't think it will take longer than that uh and if this Market were to roll over uh it would take a bit longer I'm gonna zoom in I'm gonna put a year end just because I got excited and I didn't zoom in to give you the most accurate date but that's okay because some people don't watch my lives they only look at these charts um and uh they won't know what you're going to know uh the people that do watch the actual entirety of my live which is uh there may be a better date than this we're going to zoom in and find out this was a great one today see if you can find something like this uh in any in any given day in any given search um through different stocks different positions you're stoked uh this is it's this is a this is really cool I mean this setup uh it just it just speaks to itself so now you're at a 4 hour so because we're on a 4 Hour chart we know this has to go out at least three month months we're in September so it looks like year end might not be a bad date I don't see any fills that need to take place as you can see now this volume down here there isn't much volume right and in this case that's a good thing because institutional money the more knowledgeable hands has been looking for Supply this entire time Supply meaning they they want to they want to pick up more shares zoom in you know we're going to stick with that date everybody we're going to stick with year end on that uh as you can see so if you're looking more short term here you go here's a gap it's not that far below you it's a dollar below you um I'm not in fact gonna put this up I suppose I can let me see if it shows up on the five if it shows up on the five it'll be yeah we we'll we'll throw this up this will be a good weekly um oops wrong one this will be a good weekly Target so let's go ahead and throw that up we'll just call it down here 25 50 there you go so 75 cents below you you're looking at 3% below where you sit now um yeah I like it let's do that that'll give you a shorter term Target for those of you that tune in for those short-term targets um and for those of you that aren't sure hey should this be a short-term Target for me should this be a long longterm Target for me what you need to do is you need to get in touch with me and uh start to do one-on-one sessions with me where I I work with you and your personality and who you are and the type of Trader you are and I help you set those parameters um and and that way you let's see we're going to put a Target date what is today the 16th we're going to give it a full week I don't know that it's going to take that because the summertime low is kind of coming to an end traditionally on a f- minute chart I can call it two to three days we're still in summer though so I don't W to uh I don't want to undershoot here 167 is the 23rd so what you really have to understand as an investor uh whether you're an investor Trader and those are interchangeable terms I've discussed this many times over um whether you're an investor or or Trader or whatever term you like to utilize if you don't have a fully defined plan that covers the three pillars of trading investing which is cash management risk management and Investment Management um you are doomed to failure if you don't know what to do exactly what to do in any given scenario your emotions will be manipulated and you will lose money time and time again um because as you just as I just walked through with you when I looked at this initial chart I had zero interest in this stock whatsoever but a 20 from from $26 if you get a nice move to 33 by the year end I don't think you're depressed right that's a pretty good darn move um let's see here what do we need to do next uh where are we at 17 minutes you know what I'm gonna move in to uh to some of these uh Cruise Lines because that Airline took a little time we'll look at uh Royal Caribbean and Carnival let's why don't we do that yeah they get hit really hard during uh during Co I mean nobody could be on the ship so let's go ahead and take a look yeah you don't like this this is the only real area where there's a lot of volume see this one two three don't talk about triple tops and double tops and all that none of that matters what matters is the trading activity taking place at those high prices because if there's a lot of trading activity at these high prices they're looking to dump the stock even further there being institutional investors the more knowledgeable hands are looking to dump at those prices um and it doesn't appear that that the case here now you do have an unfilled gap down here 1250 you know what it's coming back it's coming back here yeah that's coming back down we're going to go ahead and zoom in for second just a little more so we can see something a bit more near term um well actually we can we can call this one sorry I'm trying to get that marker on 1250 there yeah let's go ahead and call it I mean we'll we'll call call a longer term on this one um it's coming here so uh and I'm going to zoom in I'm going to do um what I mentioned before I'll zoom in for you guys to give you a more accurate target date if there in fact is one um but yeah this thing's this thing's coming back down uh I'm gonna explain why here in a second uh I'm gonna walk through this one the same way I did the uh the last Airline because this too has a pretty cool uh ex it's a great example of um uh let's what did I say I said year end on the last one I think this is gonna happen much faster but I'm going to give it to year uh yeah I mean I guess it's only three months I don't this won't take this long though this one looks a little little tougher than last one let's go ahead and now I'm going to zoom in a little bit I'm going to do a little explanation here because I don't think I did enough and this is a good example so why are we so certain that it's going to come back down to this 1250 well there's a couple of things here that that tell us why so what do we talk about what is the most important piece of the puzzle where is the institutional money where is the strong hands where are they they playing what where is their interest is it at high prices or low prices that is the listen it is not more complicated than that where does their interest lie if if prices are in a range and their interest lies at the top of a range do you think that institutional more knowledgeable people people that have been doing this their entire lives do they sell at high prices or low prices they sell at high prices so when you see the game being played in high price areas like this and like this and then price is pulling off and you see a gap in the background like this this tells you everything that you need to know you now know what the institutional or more knowledgeable hands are up to in that position index commodity crypto uh you name it okay it doesn't matter cash flow rules everything else droes that was lame I'm a dad what do you want from me all right let's take a look here um I'm gonna zoom in on this thing let's zoom into a we'll just get into a one hour um shortterm filled get into a 30 minute I think we have a yeah we're good I mean it's gonna come down here very quickly to that 1476 area but it's not it's going down um all right let's get back to a monthly so Carnival what did I say oh Royal Caribbean ryal Caribbean looks a little different doesn't it why do you think that Royal Caribbean looks a little different than Carnival Cruise Lines any guesses out there well it's a sad truth well not even a sad truth it's just a truth that when you have more money and Royal Caribbean is a far superior Cruise Line I went on the Allure of the Seas I don't know how long must it decade ago more than a decade ago and it was one of the greatest experiences of my life it was so fun in unbelievable it was a 10-day cruise and it was unbelievable there wasn't a day of boredom or I mean the food was unbelievable there was a tasting uh um restaurant right there it was I mean it was an amazing ship if you don't know what the allore the Seas is I think there's one a little bit bigger now but it had a Central Park in the center um it had restaurants that were truly unbelievable um in fact I I happen to love wine and they were serving bottles of the the cus Reserve cab uh which like if you go to even a wholesale off the boat at the time it was like 175 to 225 and on there they were selling those that cus Reserve cab at 125 it was absolutely unbelievable um and so you know we had it every night with dinner because that was so incredible but it was one of the greatest experiences in my life so why has Royal Kut suffered the way Carnival has because people you might get beat up when you have when you have more in become more money it's not that a covid or some other disaster doesn't beat you up it beats you up quite well I mean you're it's it's very hard on you but you have the ability to bounce back there's some savings there and that's the clientele of Royal Caribbean whereas Carnival not that it's a bad Cruise Line I've been on it um out of San Diego everybody knows those cruises right um I've been on them it's not that it's a bad cruise line but it pales in comparison to a cruise line that has you know a zip line across the center a Central Park that was like it just wooded like Central Park um it had two fake waves you could surf on I don't know how many pools and jacuzzi and all that um you had C to solay shows it was like you know it's just a different thing so let's zoom in on this and see what it is that's my story of Royal crian beautiful beautiful Cruise um so if you've never done one and you would consider one that's probably a place to be so far I don't see anything here in the background as you can see lots and lots of buying after that that drop uh in 2020 uh let's zoom in a little bit and see what we can see is there anything here that serves as an indicator no not so much um I realized there's a couple gaps in the background but they're very very small in this particular position doesn't seem to mind leaving a little gaps open and you have to recognize that too folks that there a lot of positions don't if it doesn't mind leaving leaving some gaps open um they can remain open now I would say that this one's going to fill let's zoom in a little more maybe I can give you a little near term on this um Pro price Rose to fill that Gap yeah let's see we have on a 30 minute you have an year term Gap here you have further down here which gets you into what 140 139 you're at 158 that's a reasonable size drop huh let's keep going it's way back here based on high volume what do we know about high volume oh what's this see this this excites you this is this is an Institutional footprint and that is not buying at uh60 that's selling let's see how much we zoom in all right let's take it back to a 15 we'll give you we'll we'll we'll definitely throw something up here here we go all right it is at we'll call it 140 uh come there it'll be uh it's not going to be immediate this is probably one of those classic cases of seasonality um where now price is going to drop because it Rose I mean we're coming out of that travel season and as silly as that sounds this goes on over and over and that's what a lot of people don't realize about the market they especially people that say oh I buy and hold I'm not you know I'm not into that I don't pay attention to that it's like well that makes no sense because there's no that's just not how the market works the market is constantly in flux and there are certain things if you know how to take a look that are pretty pretty easy um to identify and then take advantage of right now if you don't have a system behind you at a certain point uh Target date uh we're on a 15 minute we're going to put this out a month we're on the 16th so we're going to go to 9916 um if you don't have a system established again those three pillars of investing cash management risk management Investment Management you'll get eaten up something will get you you'll get you'll get you'll get a dozen of these right or 10 of these right but the one that takes you down will take it all back and that's why it is so critical to work with someone like myself who's been doing this uh for 25 years day in day out week in week out you know in the beginning for 60 to 80 hours a week um all right let me cruise over I know we've got to be getting short on time here uh yes all right everybody remember if you're not good up here you're not good anywhere make sure you get outside today do some exercise see the sun smile fake it till you make it you haven't lost yet you're batting a thousand how do I know that you're still here all right remember everybody every day above grounds a good day have a great