2024 Florida State Football Preview | QB DJ Uiagalelei leads No. 9 Seminoles on Playoff revenge tour

[Music] he oh [Music] number nine Florida State pre-season preview on good morning college football hello and welcome to episode 59 of good morning college football I'm Nicholas Ian Allen of CFB Winning Edge and campus to canton.com we are just 64 days 64 days until the 2024 college football season kicks off with Florida State and Georgia Tech meeting in Dublin and today we're going to be talking about of course one of those teams the Florida state seminal who who uh may be uh you know starting a revenge tour uh there in Dublin following uh the playoff snub for the simol last season uh the roster is rebuilt head coach marike norell and his coaching staff have done an excellent job over the last few years of tapping into the transfer portal to complement uh the high school talent on hand and Florida State obviously is number nine in our preseason ranking KS is currently the top ranked team in our ACC uh Power Rankings at CFB Winning Edge but before we dig into uh all of the details with Florida State uh do want to of course thank those of you who are uh joining us live if you are uh doing so on the campus to Canton YouTube channel or even if you're not we we very much would appreciate you subscribing there liking this video it really does help us uh continue to grow not only these previews which uh a little bit maybe different than than some uh certainly longer um a lot of numbers we we talk about a lot of the uh you know things that we use at cfp Winning Edge like our returning production database our team profiles our projections um and maybe I'll admit it's not the you know uh flashiest uh of of previews but hopefully we give you a lot of information and a pretty um in-depth look at certainly how our uh projections come together and and how they view each team so uh if you're interested in checking out all 134 teams in our team profiles our returning production database our uh full stat projections which have individual team pages uh as well those are coming out in 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football C2C uh all of that and then those tiers build up from there and we have different channels available uh the farther you go up in uh those tiers and and then of course uh if you want access to everything that we discuss here and and the documents that uh I show in these team previews um consider that all 22 or C2C Winning Edge tier membership please so uh thanks to those of you who do and and uh with that out of the way uh let's uh do people still say talking about the NES I don't know let's let's do it though I suppose uh so Florida state is number nine in our uh preseason power rankings and if you were with us uh in the early days of good morning college football a couple of months ago uh right when you know was starting to round out the top 25 30 or so teams in our team profile updates so you know up updating all the roster information all the uh you know Talent recruiting information seeing how things uh worked out once we took out players who were uh leaving for the NFL draft early or transferring out or out of Eligibility also entering uh you know adding those incoming transfers started to see sort of how things were changing as we transition from the end of the 2023 season to 2024 had a long discussion when we got to the end of our ACC Power Rankings um about that SMU at that point was actually the highest ranked team in the ACC I mentioned uh during my sort of therapy session where I was going through trying to figure out what to do about that because even though our numbers you know really love SMU and and we'll talk about the Mustangs uh before too long um I did come to a decision that okay we we are going to have to um give a little bit of a penalty for SMU making the transition from the group of five into the ACC um we can get into that in more detail later on but as a result of that Florida State took its top spot in these ACC Power Rankings and and probably deservedly so I mean Florida state is the pre-season betting favorite in the ACC according to DraftKings uh the the number number as of this morning was uh plus 280 for the nolles to win the ACC uh DraftKings also has Florida State eighth in its national championship odds uh 22 to1 was the most recent number that I saw there there were plus 130 to make it to the college football playoffs so um almost uh you know considered basically a 5050 shot of making the playoff or not um and then the win total uh posted there by DraftKings it's just matter of habit by the way I always uh usually I guess refer to DraftKings uh not a not a sponsor or anything but um they're just sort of the the go-to for me I guess and have been using uh those numbers for a while so to stay consistent the uh win total posted there is nine and a half for Florida State this season so um the uh other you know projection systems out there that we reference uh how do others see floor State entering this season we are not the highest FSU at number nine uh is a little bit behind uh two sources that that we've uh referred to uh often so far throughout these previews we'll continue to do so um but FSU is number seven in the preseason top 25 posts spring post spring portal uh top 25 that Andy Staples did at on three um also number seven in the sporting news preseason rankings both of those are uh if I understand correctly geared a little bit more toward you know uh a a predicted order of finish so how well will this team um you know in the season to finish the season in the national rankings not necessarily a power rating system who would be favored against who in a neutral field that is what we do and and we do seem to be on the high side as far as sort of the computer you know no opinion based uh rankings with florid St as a top 10 team in our uh Team strength rankings but uh Stuart mandal of the athletic had FSU number 10 in his similar post spring top 25 um Mark schlau at ESPN had the nulls number 11 and then the first uh you know primary primarily computer-based analytical system uh the football power index at ESPN has Florida State number as well uh at number 12 SP plus uh ESPN has the NES uh you know Fringe top 10 uh but but certainly uh respects the uh the the you know way this roster has been rebuilt and and past success and all of that factoring in Athlon also has Florida State number 12 um Phil Steels magazine he's got a you know top 40 or so rankings uh has Florida State 13th also has a power pole that has FSU 14th uh Kelly Ford of the the k for Ratings is uh of a similar uh projection has FSU 14th and then the lowest uh system that we check uh beta rank has FSU 17 so on the low side there for that um computer projections uh system so a pretty wide range you know some uh folks see State knocking on the door of a top five uh Team entering the season others uh have them you know outside of the top 15 looking in but uh there was a piece I believe it was published just this morning by Bruce Feldman at the athletic uh where he started out with you know hey anybody can do a top 25 that's easy and he he did make the reference if he were to do that top 25 he he'd probably have five SEC teams in his top 10 or 12 I forget the exact number he said but um he said with the you know change in format of the college football playoff it's it's a little trickier to uh to predict that and um as as uh sort of disastrous as as the playoff scenario was for Florida State last season and and I'm on record uh if you're listening to the uh CFB Winning Edge podcast that we do once a week which by the way um we have now previewed every group of five conference and we're uh going to be previewing the ACC starting next week we'll be doing part one and part two for each power four conference moving forward but um last year you know right after Florida state was uh snubbed after running through the regular season undefeated winning the ACC um in my view they had earned that spot and um so it was it was very disappointing very unfortunate uh that all said you know that that system no longer in place Florida State potentially uh could be a beneficiary of uh this new format especially if they win the ACCC get that automatic bid which Bruce Feldman expects uh the nlls to do and and actually had Florida State slotted as the number three seed in his playoff projection so you could say that Bruce Feldman is is potentially higher on floor State than just about anybody else although uh a lot of those rankings that we uh referenced uh do have FSU is the team to beat in the ACC so it would probably work out that way that that FSU is third or fourth uh in those uh you know playoff uh what What's the what's the word bids I don't know I'm still getting very used to all the uh the the new playoff uh scenarios but regardless uh with 10 players moving on to the NFL drafted in the NFL even more than that I'm sure in in uh training camps this fall um um it it was going to be quite a bit of uh you know there there was certainly a long Todo list as far as players and overall production to replace for norell and and his coaching staff um but uh as Felman lays out there's you know still a good core of uh returning players we'll dig into the exact numbers here before long um but this Florida State team is is definitely I think well positioned uh to sort of write the wrong of of last season and though this team might not look quite as good on paper um the the change in format could end up paying off and and getting the nlls you know with an opportunity to to compete for a national championship that that they were um in my opinion uh wrongly uh you know held back from at the end of last year final few things of course the main question and this was Bruce felman's main question in that piece for FSU it's it's probably everyone's um what's what's the quarterback position uh going to be this year you know that was the the big storyline Jordan Travis going down at the end of last season that was pointed to as the reason why Florida State uh had to be left out of the playoff by the committee so Travis is now moving on DJ UI young is in his third stop in his college career and uh likely final I believe will be in Tallahassee um and is he you know capable of leading this FSU team to uh a playoff to an ACC Championship again um Feldman we've we've referenced his uh NFL draft pieces where he's uh gotten some insight from Anonymous uh coaches and and Scouts um and one big 10 coordinator who evaluated dju when he was in the transfer portal I assume um quoted here in the piece said I think he got better at Oregon State it was getting out of that scheme at Clemson that helped him the arm talent and the feet have always been there the consistent accuracy is a little better than it was we liked him we just didn't love him um continuing on uh coach said he's a huge dude with a powerful arm but his accuracy isn't great the ball comes undone some times he's just been very inconsistent uh but there is some Talent there of course you know dju was a five-star recruit when he signed with Clemson coming out of high school got a little action in that 2020 season uh looked like he was going to be the next great Clemson quarterback future Star first round NFL draft pick uh after his true freshman season but didn't quite work out took a bit of a step back there ended up at Oregon State I think we did see some improvement a little more consistency but overall you know not quite consistent enough for some certainly um at uh ESPN Jordan Reed uh has has come out with a piece on NFL draft stock for these draft eligible quarterbacks uh within the last you know week to 10 days we've referenced several times dju of course was one who uh Reed took a look at um he writes that you know the 64 252 pound U Young has the size necessary to hang in the pocket and make tough throws continuing on reading from the piece he says and played well in a more traditional offense last season throwing for 2,638 yards with 21 touchdowns and seven picks his completion percentage declined from 2022 from 62.1% to 57.1% however and he remained hesitant to release the ball before receivers broke open things Scouts will want to see progress on this season so um quarterback position I mean it's it's basically uh a foregone conclusion I'm not sure that it's official um I don't remember norbel officially naming uh dju the starter but it seems you know that that that uh will uh certainly you know he will be expected to take that first snap of the uh you know week zero game against Georgia Tech uh assuming make it through fall Camp fully healthy U but it's also possible I I miss something maybe if if norell did refer to uh dju as the starter uh David hail also of ESPN last piece here on uh the quarterbacks before we dig into that preview uh has the Florida State quarterback room listed in his tier five where he did a tiered ranking system for all 134 FPS rooms uh he slotted dju in with some teams also relying on transfer some of them similarly well uh travel put them alongside NC State Notre Dame in Syracuse um there as uh teams that you know on the high side still quarterback shouldn't be a major weak spot but a little bit of question perhaps with uh a new face you know being in in that quarterback room and and expected to lead the team there uh coming out of spring practice Mike norell had a a press conference we're we're going back uh over a full month now but on May 15th Corey Clark of warchant.com was on and for some quotes from norell that uh we we I believe read at the time at least some of them um but just a little bit of a refresher before we we really dig in here um Mike norell quoted here in the piece by Clark said it was a really positive spring he's talking about dju here uh we tried to put him in some situations that were going to make him uncomfortable we tried putting him in situations that were probably a little bit different and I thought he handled them all really well uh I think he's growing in his confidence I think he's very comfortable I think he's got some guys around him that are going to help fit his skill set and will allow us to have a chance to be a pretty explosive offense um from there norell gets even more positive thinking and And discussing uh the the pieces of this offense um that that uh FSU coaches have put around dju um he was very complimentary of the offensive line says when you look up front our offensive line has got a chance to be as good and as deep as we've had I'm excited about seeing Robert Scott back here this fall you've got Darius Washington who I think has a chance to be an All-American at left tackle and Scott was a former uh you know allconference caliber player as well so um that offensive line really should be a strength norell goes on to uh discuss Malik venson the transfer from Florida State how he was seemingly you know uh one of the top Playmakers in in just about every practice every scrimmage uh this spring and and so he certainly is expected to be someone that dju uh you know works with quite a bit could end up being that top most productive receiver top Target um and and certainly a playmaker in this FSU offense so uh with that all out of the way we'll do a quick look at uh last season which uh I'm sure uh most remember quite well Florida state was uh really you know for the most part maybe not every single week but as I pull up our CFB Winning Edge 2024 team profiles here taking a look at the uh 2023 season uh a little bit fortunate if you look at those postgame win expectancy numbers from college football data.com where they take a look at the box score and if you were to play that game over and you know had the same exact stats uh a 100 times a thousand times however many you would expect Florida State to come out ahead just 27% of the time in that 3124 overtime Victory against Clemson uh nevertheless the rest of the way you know Florida state was uh looking good looking good certainly until injury struck and that Florida game again under 50% as low as 12 uh Florida state was able to ES ape there with a victory but that defense really really showed up in the ACC Championship game against Louisville uh completed the 13-0 um run to the ACC title but then we know what happened we know that that Florida state was left out of the playoff uh we know about the opt outs we know about Georgia um you know just just going through and and uh dominating uh a much much different FSU team in the bowl game 63-3 uh but taking a look at the numbers statistically speaking from last year and keep in mind I say this all the time but um when we're looking at at these things up in the top of our team profiles like scoring margin and net points per Drive net yards per pass attempt success rate all that good stuff we're talking about games against FBS opponents only and we are talking about the regular season only so uh for the most part this excludes the post Jordan Travis Florida State team from last year so do keep that in mind these numbers probably uh are a little bit higher than what you might see um if if we did incorporate the uh you know postseason into these numbers but uh nevertheless net scoring margin top 10 nationally uh against FBS opponents only uh top 10 also in net yards per play top seven National in net points per Drive according to Brian fro who does uh filter garbage time out of those numbers throughout the course of the season number six in defensive points per Drive allowed so really an excellent unit there uh last season as well uh top 15 in net yards per pass attempt a little bit uh you know not not quite as on the uh Elite side of things when we look at net success rate or EPA margin we use the the equivalent PPA uh college football data.com but both still inside the top 25 so regardless this FL State team played like a top 10 team last season they were number nine in our overall team performance rankings uh just on the outside of the top 25 looking end as far as offensive team performance 17th in passing offensive team performance 66th in rushing offensive team performance uh but the defense was certainly a strength of this Florida State team number 12 in overall defensive team performance top 10 against the pass 21st against the run just an excellent excellent team um during the regular season and until uh injury unfortunately Struck it at seemingly the worst time for Florida State and and ended up uh being used as a reason or an excuse you might say to leave this FSU team out of the playoff so uh who's coming back who's not from last year of course Jordan Travis has run out of Eligibility DJ coming in uh it's almost a one to one you know uh passing yardage out passing yardage in touchdowns out touchdowns in yard for pass attempt uh the only thing was dju few more picks than Jordan Travis also a slightly higher average uh depth of Target uh both double digits so this Florida State offense you know certainly did not uh shy away from taking deep shots or really pushing the ball down the field with Jordan Travis but dju even stronger arm even more of a vertical passing uh threat he averaged 11.7 at Florida or at Oregon State last season uh Trey Benson one of those double digit draft picks for Florida State 14 touchdowns last year 900 yards that running back room has been deep at FSU for years Lawrence toi back is the most experienced player from last year's FSU Squad but Roy Del Williams the transfer from Alabama coming in after sharing the the workload there but going for over 500 yards and five touchdowns for a playoff team Jaylen Lucas always been a personal favorite of mine transfer from Indiana um he's a well-rounded offensive weapon can be a real asset on special teams as a Return Man uh also a receiver out of the backfield but he can do some damage running the football as well um great speed another of those players like Malik Benson it seemed like Jaylen Lucas was mentioned in every practice report this spring somebody who just uh you can tell norell is really really excited to see how he uh is folded into this offense not sure if you know the overall numbers are going to be uh eye popping but I do believe that that Jaylen Lucas is going to have a pretty clear role in this offense and and should be an exciting player for this FSU team the why uh the the receiving core got hit hardest and perhaps uh you know has been the the more difficult spot for FSU to fill you know answer every question fill every uh potential hole Keon Coleman certainly um emerged as a weapon early last season developed into a high round NFL draft pick uh has been sort of a darling of the post-draft uh you know sort of social media uh moments but uh he will be missed in his 11 touchdowns Johnny Wilson was another personal favorite of mine just thinking back to uh the way you know there were a couple of games where he just took over last season couldn't get you know 100% healthy uh seemingly missed a few games only two touchdowns but still just a a presence on the field his size um is is you know just something that that is going to be difficult to replace on its own um even though he was certainly inconsistent at times uh somebody that opposing defensive coordinat had to uh keep in mind could not could not uh really shy away from him Jim Bell pretty unique skill set uh he turned into an NFL player as well all three of those are players are gone and that leaves Kyle Morlock uh who split time with bell at tight end last season as the leader uh in receiving yards coming back toili at at running backs actually the leader in receptions coming back from the squad so uh you know Jaylen Lucas coming in he was actually even a little bit more productive than Malik Benson who's expected to be the number one receiver Benson of course uh had some injuries last season as well got off to a little bit of a slow start um after being a pretty Buzzy player pre-season at Alabama last year so hopefully he will be able to capitalize this year um but if we're thinking all right you know what's what's uh maybe the the spot on this offense that could in theory hold it back just a little bit you could say that at least as it stands right now on paper uh Florida state had more going out than it's got coming in as far as receiving production goes and and that's going to be uh something to watch something to watch um the offensive line as norell said looks like it's in really really good shape getting Robert Scott back after he uh appeared in in you know half the games basically last season made just one start but back in fully healthy uh should be key to this being a an improved unit the additions of Richie Leonard the fourth as a 12 game starter Jacob britzy also a starter uh at the FCS level um so there's a lot of experience here Darius Washington as norell said could be an All-American potentially uh but getting buyers back and Smith back and adding depth there alongside Scott this uh should be a real strength of that Flor State offense defensively you know not quite as uh maybe uh decimated is not the right word but um you know comparing it to the receiving loss production uh the defense is is uh kind of in a a somewhat similar spot as a whole lose the top two tacklers from last season and Tatum beun and uh excuse me T kin Delo starters in the secondary Renardo green AEM Dent Brandon fisky uh somebody who just another home run out of the transfer portal for uh noral and his coaching staff uh just really under the radar player both he and Jered verse right who was an FCS transfer um Norvell and this staff hit home runs with both uh they are going to be playing on Sundays this season uh and though difficult to replace that certainly was an area that uh FSU uh really addressed through the portal you see players like cion Loa coming in Marian Cooper in the secondary grd Kelly up front Cam Riley add some depth at the linebacker position uh but a name that's a little lower on the list because he didn't play a ton last season at uh Georgia but Marvin Jones Jr expected to come in be a a key piece of that pass rush and then another name that we'll talk about uh who he only played in one game due to the uh eligibility issues uh after transferring from Miami but um darl Jackson Jr got to see what he could do bit in that uh bowl game and he'll be somebody counted on um as a real presence in the interior of that defensive line break it all down Florida state is on the very low end as far as uh returning production in the ACC but on a national scale you know 80th overall for a team that went undefeated in the regular season uh loses 10 draft picks it's starting quarterback it's top three receivers um 80th overall isn't isn't too bad you look at the raw returning production Florida state ranked 101st justtin who is not returning from last season's roster um 105th on the offensive side of the ball so there certainly were plenty of areas that needed attention and you know Florida state did a good job jumped up 20 25 spots uh in those categories by adding um experienced players a variety of sources and and uh overall made some some positive uh momentum rebuilding this roster so what does it all mean for this year I forgot to do my banner for the returning production sorry about that uh but as far as depth chart projections roster strength and position strength ratings going back to our uh Team profiles cfp Winning Edge team profiles um it it looks good looks good on paper floor state is number 12 in overall roster strength top 10 offensively just 29th on the defensive side of the ball but um I think that and and I've heard from from some people close to Florida State follow the program very very closely um that we're underrating Florida State defensively that that the staff is very high on the defense um and and I think understandably so it is certainly possible uh that the way that we uh you know put those roster strength ratings together where we uh use the recruiting uh site projections coming out of high school so those rankings uh for players coming out of high school adjust for experience and career production um yeah it's it's certainly possible that we're on the low side of of uh you know the way that that we account for um how well this roster and and specifically that defensive unit looks on paper um Patrick Payton had an incredibly productive season last year Joshua farmer uh was an all ACC second teamer I believe uh Daryl Jackson Jr we mentioned the 330 pounder who um according to you know people who who follow the program very closely likely would have been a starter on that defense last season uh that that performed so well getting Marvin Jones Jr uh back in Tallahassee is key should pay off he and Payton I think certainly could be one of the top pass rush Duos in the ACC um getting DJ Lundy he had briefly entered the transfer portal actually I think committed right to to Colorado if memory serves correctly getting him back for his final year of Eligibility helped solidify that linebacker position uh fentrell Cyprus was a you know wasn't he an All-American at Virginia a couple of years ago so getting him back is is uh key shahem Brown the most experienc from just a you know pure percentage of snaps uh played last season getting those two back will be uh will be key another transfer that uh has huge potential but didn't put up a ton as far as numbers or overall um you know snaps last season Earl little II expected to start as well according to most um and then there's plenty of depth you see the blue highlights here on our projected to deep uh Florida State you know really looked at um building out this defensive line and and you know attack the transfer portal to add guys like Kelly and uh TOA George my apologies if I mispronounced that also for cion Loa lot of lot of attention paid to rebuilding uh that group upfront and the expectation it sounds like is uh that it's that it's going to pay off that you know shouldn't see uh despite losing players like verse and and like Fisk uh we won't see just a huge drop off as far as play up front and you know last season as good as that unit was there was a little bit of uh room for improvement you can see here perhaps our defensive line performance rating last season for Florida State uh they finished 27th in the national rankings the way that we calculate that take in you know things like stuff raid and and line yards against and all that sort of stuff uh some pass rushing uh numbers as well and and try to put a great on it to to help uh because it's it's difficult to to Really gauge how productive how impactful players are on both the offensive and defensive line so we do those additional layers with performance ratings uh to try to account for that and and Florida State was very very good maybe not as Elite as it could be or was expected to be but um certainly played like a top 25 defense last season and and the way it shakes out right there on the top 25 at number 25 in our dline position strength ratings uh this season how do those compare to the raw recruiting numbers and this is perhaps uh like I said some see that that our roster strength ratings are are potentially underrating this FSU defense and and it seems like that certainly could be the case just a little bit younger so those experience weights those you know production points aren't maybe quite there compared to uh some of the top 10 top 15 top 20 units the way we calculate it but if you look in the leftand column here the average 247 uh composite rating which I use as a proxy for uh Raw Talent where do these position groups rank um it's it's mostly top 25 are very close 22nd and average 247 rating on the defensive line 27th at linebacker top 10 nationally among defensive backs so lot of Talent on hand and you could argue that that this coaching staff has has firmly established a track record of um developing players whether they only get one year or two uh with them uh you know getting more out of uh these players particularly on the defensive side of the ball than those raw recruiting numbers might indicate the offense is even more talented from a raw uh recruiting standpoint and dju as a former five star is carrying some weight there but top five in average raate rating uh in the 247 composite coming out of high school at quarterback top five across the board Rivals and on three as well the running back position they're top 10 across the board wide receiver the 247 rating is on the low side at number 12 nationally Rivals has it in uh the number eight spot uh the tight end position looks good as well uh top 15 nationally and a top 20 offensive line just in terms of raw talent but um rebuild building through the transfer portal and uh just you know hearing what Mike norell has to say the expectations for that group are are certainly top 10 and and that is a real strength as far as uh our position strength numbers go number eight in that uh in those those roster strength position strength ratings adjusted for experienced production and you can see last year the o line performed like a top 20 unit so uh what is it uh you know once once we get through all of that roster strengthwise things look good on paper how is it going to play out on the field taking a look at that win total projection and and week by week uh projected point spreads um we're high on Florida State but not as high perhaps as the odds makers um getting Georgia Tech early week zero in Ireland um we do have FSU certainly favored by double digits it will be a tough test that Georgia te offense um I personally have high expectations for last season was great a ton of uh experiened Returns on that side of the ball with this you know FSU defense being a little younger um maybe needing a little time to gel uh it's it's going to be a tough test do certainly think that Florida State's going to be in a position to win that game it's going to be interesting to see how they come back uh you know the week after such long travel they do get get a couple of extra days that Boston College game in Tallahassee is on a Monday night so it certainly could be a more difficult uh schedule setup but having a few extra days getting the home game um should work out well for Florida State should be uh favored by two touchdowns or more in that game close to three touchdowns in our current projections uh then an extra week to prepare for uh who we have is the top rated group of four or excuse me group of five uh train myself I guess too well on now saying power four uh group of five uh highest rated team Memphis in week four um that's going to be a real interesting matchup Memphis is certainly uh you know doesn't have quite the depth but is going to be a uh high octane offense very experienced four-year starter at quarterback and Seth henigan um some weapons at wide receiver we went in depth on it on the CFB Winning Edge podcast uh that was published just this morning Friday morning um about Memphis maybe having the top wide receiver duo in the American um so that's going to be a tough test but again Florida State pretty heavily favored there opens or I guess not opens ACC play I'm used to seeing that by about week uh five but another early ACC matchup with new uh conference rival Cal SMU to follow and Clemson that's a that's a tough stretch um don't have to make the cross country trip to Berkeley but a new opponent you know for the the third straight week three three weeks in a row there Memphis Cal SMU that trip to Dallas uh will will hopefield Advantage be um you know really key for the Mustangs not not sure but it'll be that first uh trip in a month after coming back from Ireland for Florida State and again SMU as a team our numbers absolutely love and and we actually do have the Mustangs favored in there do I personally believe they should be or will be no not necessarily I'm not expecting SMU to win that game but um FSU or you know FSU is is going to be tested I would say uh with with SMU and then will it be a little bit of a look ahead spot with Clemson likely uh you know maybe a top 10 team by that time uh we we shall see certainly considered one of if not the top Challenger to Florida state in the ACC this year even though that game is in Tallahassee U little bit of a tricky spot there after the trip to SMU get a week off to recuperate Florida State should be uh double- digit favorites against Duke and then a really you know another the toughest you know three uh weeks back to back uh with Miami North Carolina and Notre Dame having three road trips in four weeks is going to be tough um you know the the the trip to Duke in Miami say what you will about the uh you know HomeField environment for both of those but still it's it's getting on a plane getting on a bus not sleeping in your own bed um then you know North Carolina is a team that our numbers like more than most and then that trip to Notre Dame is is always uh difficult but uh by that time Florida State probably will know you know whether or not they're headed to the ACC Championship Game their conference schedule will be done quite early after getting started uh in in uh week zero there after the North Carolina game so the trip to Notre Dame a week off FCS Charleston Southern and then of course the uh second half of that uh sort of State Championship uh rivalry series with Florida there to uh round it out as usual in Tallahassee this year so there are some tough matchups and like I said SMU as a very slight favorite a coin flip according to our projections by time that game kicks off uh perhaps uh things will have shifted a little bit we'll see how you'll see if SMU really is uh as good as as our numbers like to think they are or if Florida state is perhaps uh a bit better gets off to a better start I would not at all be surprised if our numbers have Florida State favored by you know a field goal or more by time that game kicks off but we'll see never know um the match up against Miami we also have Florida State as a slight Underdog there um and against Notre Dame as well so throw all those together where where Florida state is a slight Underdog in three matchups uh some others where you know against North Carolina again I said we're a little higher on the tar Hills than most uh we have Florida state is only a you know 64% projected uh winning percentage in that game so um add all those projected win percentages up the 61% against Clemson 64% against North Carolina uh 38% Notre Dame 47 Miami it it doesn't total uh you know maybe as high as as we might expect our projected win total in our traditional way of doing it we've done this for all FBS teams dating back to 21 we do have a 60.4% winning percentage doing it this way we're 55.6% last year so certainly not perfect but overall pretty good uh you know I'm I'm comfortable with those numbers uh we're a little low on Florida State compared to that nine and a half um win total projection at draft K so we would officially be on the under do anticipate being on the under for Florida State this season projecting about an 8-4 record me personally think 9 and three is certainly um more likely 10 and two even 11 and one certainly uh is is possible um we have made a little bit of a different win total projection that we're going to be grading separately from that uh way we've done it the last few years where we give a 10% bonus for each game a team or uh each matchup in which a team is favored and a 10% penalty for each uh in which that team is in Underdog FL state gets a plus six being favored in nine and an underdog in three so you can add 610 of a win to that projection it still comes in under nine so we're still projecting uh about a nine and three record it would be uh 8.91 projected wins in the in the more updated version of those win total projections so uh we think Florida state is a top 10 team if they win the ACC they're going to be in the playoff that absolutely um is the expectation is a reasonable goal but it is a fairly difficult schedule and there are um you know a lot of moving pieces especially in that receiving core on defense uh and it's a tricky schedule at times little more difficult maybe uh than it might look to uh the naked eye especially if SMU is anywhere near as good as our numbers seem to think uh having that uh game right up uh you know leading into the Clemson matchup even though that game is in Tallahassee is is of course key that you know well traveled uh four weeks between the Friday night kickoff at Duke and uh that November 9th game in South Bend how is Florida State going to be able to weather traveling a lot of miles you know starting with that week zero trip to uh Ireland catching their breath a little bit in the first half of the season but um three road trips in in four weeks that can wear on a team especially when you're uh facing you know three of your what top five uh opponents uh during that stretch it it could be difficult could um end up uh being a situation where maybe Florida State wins um or you know could be in danger of losing a game it it should win so uh very interesting team to me of course how will the quarterback situation play out uh but at least what we know is Florida State won't get snubbed if it wins the AC this season so perhaps that's um you know a step in the right direction but thank you for joining us today this is uh that'll be it for us this week we'll be back on Monday to discuss the top 10 team or the the last top 10 team in our preseason team strength rankings the Alabama Crimson Tide and and uh under the New Direction there of Kalin deor um again if uh you haven't already please do subscribe to the campus to Canton YouTube channel uh please give this video a like and we very much would appreciate if you would consider becoming a member at campus to canton.com you can join for as little as299 per month or if you want access uh to all the sheets that we had on display during this team preview uh please consider becoming a C2C Winning Edge tier member or an all 22 tier member uh that'll get you access there once you sign up we do update and and send out invites once a day uh but you should be able to get to the link um through uh your uh subscription profile at campest canton.com you can also get your Discord access there and and reach out uh through the Discord uh to me as well and and get access prior to that so if you do sign up Reach Out request access and and we try to Grant those as quickly as possible um but uh that'll be it for us today thank you so much uh hope you had a great week have a wonderful weekend we will be back on Monday for good morning college football from campus to canton.com I'm Nichol and Allen take care