‘The blue wall is now back to being basically a toss up’ Real Clear Politics co-founder says

>> Neil: SO MANY BATTLEGROUND STATES, SO LITTLE TIME. -- LONG TIME NO SEE, TOM. GOOD TO SEE YOU AGAIN. >> BETWEEN BACK, NEIL. >> Neil: WHAT IS YOUR TAKE ON WHY THESE BATTLEGROUND STANDS -- DAUGHTER IS STILL IN MOST OF THEM BUT HE HAD A WINNING STREAK OF SIX OUT OF SEVEN OF THEM BEFORE. IS THIS A SHORT-LIVED OR WE'LL TURN? >> KNOW IT'S DEFINITELY HAS BEEN KAMALA HARRIS HAS IMPROVED THE DEMOCRATS POSITION IN ALMOST ALL THESE BATTLEGROUND STATES. WHEN JOE BIDEN EXCEEDED THE RACE -- SO EVEN ORIGINATORS OF THE INDIVIDUAL STATEMENT OF THE TOP SEVEN BATTLEGROUND STATES THAT IF YOU TAKE THOSE ALTOGETHER WHEN JOE BIDEN EXITED TO RACE ON JULY 21st, HE WAS TRAILING DONALD TRUMP BY OVER ABOUT 3.5% IN THE TOP SEVEN BATTLEGROUND STATES. THAT LEAVE NOW, TRUMP' LEAD IS NUMBER 11%. TRUMP IS REALLY KAMALA HARRIS IN WISCONSIN BUT UNDER A POINT, HE'S TELLING HER IN MICHIGAN BUT UNDER A POINT. HE LEAD IN PENNSYLVANIA IS UNDER A POINT. SO, YOU KNOW, BLUE WALL IS NOW BACK TO BEING BASICALLY ETHOS UP. AND THAT REALLY IS THE BEST PATH TO THE NOMINATION. RIGHT NO IF THE PULL IS -- IF THE ELECTIONS WERE HELD TODAY AND THE SUPPOSED RESPONDENT ACCURATE, DONALD TRUMP WOULD THE ELECTORAL -- 2087-251 BUT IF KAMALA HARRIS WERE TO JUST -- >> Neil: HOLY TOMATO. I'M NOT SURE -- HE WAS JUST THE HONEYMOON PERIOD THAT SHE'S ENJOYING OR SOMETIMES SHE IS JUST, YOU KNOW, SHAMELESSLY COPYING SOME OF THE IDEAS THAT DONALD TRUMP HAD INCLUDING, YOU KNOW, CUTTING OUT THE TAX FOR SERVICE WORKERS AND ALL OF THAT BACK BUT BEYOND THAT, COULD IT BE DONALD TRUMP'S UNDOING AS WELL THAT HIS FOCUS ON THE GEORGIA GOVERNOR IN THE BACK AND FORTH WITH WHO'S ARTICLE BE ONE OF THE MORE POPULAR OVER -- REPUBLICAN GOVERNORS IN THE COUNTRY AND THE BACK AND FORTH OVER, YOU KNOW, KAMALA HARRIS ON WHETHER SHE'S BLACK AND ALL OF THIS THAT THESE ARE SIDETRACKING HIM WERE ON THE KEY ISSUES, HE HAS A DISTINCT ADVANTAGE. >> I THINK IT'S A COMBINATION OF THAT. IS PROBABLY A LITTLE BIT LESS DONALD TRUMP BECAUSE THE FOCUS REALLY HASN'T BEEN ON HIM AND WHEN IT HAS BEEN AN ON HIM TO YOUR POINT HAS BEEN -- HASN'T BEEN GREAT NEWS. BUT BY A LARGE I THINK -- IT IS REAL BECAUSE THERE'S NO QUESTION SHE'S GENERATING A LOT OF ENTHUSIASM, INJECTED A LOT OF ENTHUSIASM IN TO THE DEMOCRATIC BASE AND YOU'RE SEEING THAT WITH THE CROWD AND ALL OF THAT COUNTERPARTY WAS BASICALLY DOWN AS ONE OF MOPING AROUND FOR WEEKS AND WEEKS TRYING TO GET THEMSELVES, YOU KNOW, TO BACK -- BACK BIDEN BUT IT'S ALSO PART -- IT'S A MEDIA CREATION, NEIL, HE LOOK AT THE COVERAGE SHE'S GOTTEN SINCE SHE BECAME THE ACTOR NO MONEY AND IT HAS BEEN GLOWING ACROSS THE BOARD INCLUDING HER PACK FOR TIM WALZ AS VICE PRESIDENTS. SO I THINK IT'S A COMBINATION OF THOSE CHY-MAC THINGS TO WHETHER IT'S REAL, ESPECIALLY REAL, IS PARTIALLY MEDIA CREATED AND THE QUESTION IS WHETHER -- ISN'T GOING TO END OR IF IT IS -- IF IT REALLY A HONEYMOON WHEN WILL THE ADD? WE DON'T KNOW THE ANSWER TO THAT QUESTION. >> Neil: EVEN IF YOU WANTED TO BE FOR -- I MEAN, BOTH DECISIONS ON THE PART OF THE PRESIDENTIAL CANDIDATES LOOK IF THEY. BUT NOT NEARLY AS IF HE FOR HER AS THEY DID IN THE CASE OF DONALD TRUMP SELECTING J.D. VANCE. IS THAT EVEN REMOTELY BALANCED IN THAT APPROACH? >> NO, NOT AT ALL. IN SOME WAYS TO HAVE A SIMILAR PROCESS -- PROFILE, RIGHT? FROM THE MIDWEST BUT YET HE WAS PORTRAYED AS RIGHT-WING EXTREMISTS WHOSE WEIRD AND ALL OF THESE THINGS IN TIM WALZ IS PORTRAYED AS THIS SORT OF HOKEY MIDDLE-CLASS BY WILL CHANGE -- THE DOUBLE STANDARD ON THE COVERAGE HAS BEEN -- HAS BEEN OBVIOUS I THINK OF ANYBODY WHO IS PAYING ANY SERIOUS ATTENTION TO WHAT'S GOING ON. AND HAS BEEN FAVORABLE -- YOU LOOK AT THE COVER OF TIME MAGAZINE THIS MORNING AND SOME OF THE STORIES OVER THE WEEKEND, TO YOUR POINT ABOUT ATTACKS ON TIPS, IT -- HAS BEEN NO SCRUTINY, KAMALA HARRIS ANOTHER DOCTOR INTERVIEW, VAN DE VEN ASKED THE QUESTIONS ARE NOT EVEN SURE IF YOU DIDN'T SET AN INTERVIEW IF YOU WOULD GET AT THE SAME KIND OF QUESTIONS THAT J.D. VANCE DOES THAT FOR THREE INTERVIEWS OVER THE WEEKEND. SO THAT -- THAT IS SOMETHING THAT THE TRUMP CAMPAIGN HAS TO DO WITH AND YOU MAY LIKE IT OR YOU MAY NOT LIKE ABOUT IT AS PART OF OF THE POLITICAL LANDSCAPE AND YOU WILL HAVE TO FIGHT THROUGH IT. >> Neil: IN THE MEANTIME IT IS A GIVEN THAT NORMALLY, WHEN IT COMES OUT OF HIS OR HER CONVENTION, YOU KNOW, WITH A LITTLE BIT OF A BUMP, I DON'T KNOW IF KAMALA HARRIS WILL ENJOY THAT, PROBABLY WILL. NORMALLY WE FORGET THAT -- OVER GEORGE BUSH, COMING OUT OF HIS CONVENTION COVERED IN THE LAST VERY LONG SO THEREFORE CAMPAIGN CAN BE A LONG ONE EVEN THOUGH THEY'RE NOT THAT MANY MONTHS. HOW DO YOU SEE THIS GOING AS WE GET PAST CONVENTIONS CAN WE GET PAST ALL THIS OVER WHICH WE ARE OBSESSING RIGHT NOW? >> YEAH, I MEAN, LOOK AT THE IS A GREAT QUESTION. WHETHER IS THIS AND THE NEW NORMAL OR WHETHER THIS IS PART OF A HONEYMOON AND IT WILL RECEIVE A LITTLE BIT? I EXPECT SHE WILL GET A BIT OF A CONVENTION BOUNCE, I EXPECT IT WON'T BE LONG LASTING. SO I GUESS THE GOOD NEWS IF YOU'RE THE DEMOCRATS IS THAT THEY ARE IN A MUCH BETTER POSITION THAN THEY WERE JUST A FEW WEEKS AGO. NATIONALLY IN A LOT OF THESE BATTLEGROUND STATES. AND THE GOOD NEWS IF YOU'RE TRUMP CAMPAIGN CAN LOOK AT THINGS AND SAY, YOU KNOW WHAT, WE DON'T HAVE A POINT NATIONALLY AND WERE AHEAD IN FIVE OF THE SEVEN BATTLEGROUND STATES, THAT IS WAY AHEAD, WAY AHEAD OF WHERE THEY WERE FOUR YEARS AGO CALLIE WERE LOSING BY SIX OR SEVEN THOUGHTS NATIONALLY COUNTY WERE LOSING ALL THESE BATTLEGROUND STATES. SO I THINK THIS ELECTION, NEIL, IS GOING TO BE AN ABSOLUTE NAILBITER AND CANNOT DO A FEW THOUSAND VOTES JUST A COUPLE OF STATES, A REPEAT OF 2016 AND IN SOME WAYS 2020. BECAUSE THE COUNTRY IS JUST A