polling Guru Nate silver and his election prediction model assigned a 63.8% probability of Donald Trump winning the Electoral College in Sunday's latest update to his election forecast it follows an nyt Sienna College poll which indicated that the former president is leading vice president kamla Harris by one percentage Point Harris has recently outperformed in several National and swing state polls since assuming the top position on the ticket the nyt Sienna College poll also revealed that a higher number of Voters perceive Harris as too liberal or Progressive on key policy issues compared to those who view Trump as too conservative Silver's model reveals that Harris has only a 36% chance of winning the Electoral College despite her leading Trump by 2.5 points in Silver's National polling average