Off The Board - Week 1 Preview and Locks!

Introduction to Off the Board UNS syndicated presents off the board the weekly gambling show hosted by Blake magak and Mike [Music] iers welcome in to off theboard with Mike ivel and myself Blake matac we are very excited for college football week one that is to say the least and uh I'm just excited to get into it man we got another week we got a Full Slate of games yeah and when you get to the NCAA there there's so many games it's extremely overwhelming for me it's why I'm way better at NFL but because of you for you Blake I am going to master my NCAA craft I'll get this out I texted you before the show and said I have 18 plays and you were like I I don't have that many I feel bad and I'm like Mike I told you I'm just I'm firing on everything like I I love week one more than any other week because I'm I feel very overconfident and it's and it's a good week but if there's anything I know Week Zero Recap: Lessons Learned we'll jump right into week's Z if there's anything week zero told told us is you can't be confident no so you are and that's the thing you know the first thing we can kind of talk about coming out of week zero I the biggest thing I noticed was the lack of scoring yeah and we saw some scoring in the in the games from last night but my thought process is is I'm I'm kind of like an unders early in the season yeah it it's one where um my uncle was just in and and he was telling a story and I I think I've mentioned my uncle to you he used to live out in Vegas he actually just moved back in and he was telling my son the story of uh when he first moved out to Vegas I would get a hold of him and he would be my Runner and he was running bets and I would bet every ball game over that was just my thing he would just take this money and he would run it over and and as we started talking and this is gets back to your point of the unders is week zero is so hyped and so loved and everybody wants and what does everybody want to do everyone wants points everyone wants the over handicappers know that they're they're cooking that right into the number right there yeah and then you add in my complaint before the show no preseason kind of stuff for for the nc2a that it's just hard to get those games to go over I mean some of them will but the under the unders are beautiful well the the preseason is basically these FBS versus FCS games that there as many good games there are this week there's about 10 times more of those games and a lot of teams treat that as preseason yeah I guess that's how I should look at it is like there's those games that look like preseason they're going to look like those preseason NFL games don't touch them don't do what I did last week and jump on them mistakes were made last week I'm I'll Fess right up to it so but yeah the the unders and but you made a great point when we were texting the other day Betting Strategies and Insights about the helmet communication I think that that's a huge part of it because coaches can communicate with their quarterbacks up until 15 seconds are left in the play clock so especially in college football where these guys don't process nearly as quickly as NFL quarterbacks there coaches are in their ear telling them hey watch this hot read hey look for this route because it looks like they're in this cover twoo and stuff like that so that communication as it could lead to less turnovers I still think it slows the games down and slows the pace down 100% there there wasn't as many as those real early snaps wanting to to up the pace and stuff like that and then my point to your my Counterpoint to yours was also this is year two of not stopping the clock after every first down yeah and you add in something like this communication and that's it might only take five seven maybe 10 seconds up but you do that every play that adds up and the scores are going to happen so this week zero week one fire those unders because they'll start those numbers are going to start coming down and I saw I was reading on Pro Football Focus there were out of all the weak zero games I before the Hawaii game because I didn't I couldn't watch the Hawaii game because it was on like Spectrum Sports Plus whatever um there was only two passes thrown in those games that were deemed like interceptable out of all all three of those games there's only two that were deemed interceptable so and I think only one of them was picked off so that all that communication it like I said it could lead to less turnovers that's for sure yeah it'll slow the game down and they'll make better choices and then we'll have less points yeah so and the worst part about week zero was for and I know you were in the same bu was me we started hot we started one and0 we we both had the under and then New Mexico just could not that that game could not have fallen apart worse it oh my God and that's all my fault I can't apologize more to you for that one but yeah I mean you you start out hot like that and then and it was just on fire too because I I know you were I told you I had the quarterback for uh George hannes King whatever his name I had him over 50 yards and every time he went past it he fumbled the ball he he lost 19 yards there I think it was in the fourth quarter and it made it quite a sweat but yeah but then again mistakes were made if we want to go over the bet I mean I once I sat down and I I I'm sure you do this I go over whether it's a win or a loss and I'm like what did I do what what was the pattern there and I said it on the show last week I didn't like any of my picks I really didn't like them after I looked at the numbers that that I was there but again we fire that's what we do yeah that's all we can do y number I I am just never gonna bet on SMU the rest of the season they could go undefeated and I'm not going to bet on them the rest of the season just because of week zero yeah yeah and and that was listening to the talking heads that that was probably out of all of them the most disappointing I mean New Mexico's New Mexico I mean that they they weren't even favored in that game so so let's be hon Matana nice comeback by them and then Hawai Hawaii's the in interesting one and I'm very interested in their game this week I I didn't fire I'm watching on it just too much too much talk on it but yeah when I went back over my numbers and I saw how popular the picks were that that that I took I I I vomited a little bit not I'm not gonna lie I I didn't like it but I I had action in the games it got me to watch them this week with all the plethora of games I'm way more fine-tuned into this and and hopefully we come out a little bit brighter yes um so just real quick Week One Picks and Predictions because I wanted to start with this pick for tonight's game we both we both like Stanford plus the 8 and a half against TCU what are your reasons for that okay well so and we'll as we get going on this you'll hear me mentioned people that I will give credit so I was not looking at this game but there's someone that I follow closely Josh applebomb and this is I Got My Philosophy I'm betting from him and watching the splits and stuff so when he did it I went and looked at the splits so right now 48% of the bets but 67% of the money is on Stanford that that sharp that's professional money that is right in my wheelous of what I do when I get the bets under 50% and the money over 50% it is an auto bet for me and on top of that all you have to say and you'll hear me say this all year like only 48% of the bets are on this team why did the line go from 10 to eight and a half that is because of liability because of the professional betters and I put that one and I rate that one one of the higher ones that I have and home dog yes home dog just just you can say you can say the most basic thing too like it's a home dog it's a lot of travel for TCU TCU looked horrible last year and I don't think that they got much better through the portal in their additions so I and I don't think Stanford's a great team either but if you give me more than a touchdown at home for two teams that have a lot of question marks I'll take it yeah I think both teams are like expected to win less than seven games this year year but when you you think about something like this where why why can we see something and maybe others don't and why are so many people on the TCU side it's that recency bias what people remember TCU in the national championship game in Stanford stunk last year right that that's what is on their mind and here comes this line but again as we go through and you see the pattern of my betting is finding where that those professionals are they've got way more information than we could ever think of so uh we're both on Stanford tonight so we'll both be sweating a late one hopefully the weather cools down we won't be really sweating too bit yeah I'll be I'll be watching that in the living room for sure where I have air conditioning not in in the TV room like I so I had I had all three of my TVs on last night because there was enough games on and I forgot that TVs are just like space heaters as well oh yeah and in this room was just it was not it was not comfortable it was too hot last night I need fall weather for three TV system to work really well yeah and I'm sure it didn't help I was golfing last night so I know what it was like outside and I actually walked off the course before my round was I was done with it I'm I don't do heat well so I I walked off the course I could imagine being somewhere with three TVs in this heat too so no so do you want to get into the Big Games Breakdown big games Saturday yeah let's do the the games that we have deemed big ones for uh week one look at this we got graphics now Todd's been working his little tail off in the lab just creating things so so good it it looks awesome we got beautiful branding um so the first game of we I put these in chronological order so that we can kind of hit them in the yeah you know in the way that they're going to air so the first game is Clemson and at Georgia it's technically a neutral sight game um being played down there at the BM no it's Mercedes Benz yeah in Atlanta it okay I'll be inappropriate it's the stadium that looks like a big butthole the top of it looks like a giant butthole I can't wait I'm going now now I'm going uh Georgia's favored by 12 and a half and the overunderish 48 and a half uh so Mike I'll let you go first what's your what's your play for this game so so another one here is when I look at it and I see that it's it's down the 12 and a half when I was taking my notes it was 13 and a half so when you look at this right now 82% of the money and the bets so this is a very popular bet bet on Georgia again all that is going on with Georgia why does that line move to Clemson this it's fishy it's stinky this is very contrarian going again against the public I I did not put this in I could see me firing on this because this is something I typically plug my nose and take but I like Clemson uh and the points uh yeah and when I look at a when a line moves like this with that little money that means the sports books are saying they're taking their stand on what they think is to happen they don't care what the Public's doing and they they want more money on Clemson and I'm siding with the books I would I'm going to lean and hav't taken it I would lean Clemson in this one I would agree with you I was in the same boat I was thinking if when it was at 13 and a half I probably would have bought it to 14 now that it's at 12 and a half I'm like I'm not going to buy a point and a half unless I was going to throw it in a parlay or something like that um but the play that I do have on this game is the under or wait no over over over I'm going crazy H I'm like I'm trying to look at my notes over here and I right the next game is well I have I have an under coming up but I like the over in this game I think George is Gonna Come Out And score and I think year two in the um Riley system for Kade Club Nick will be good for him yeah so I think that Clemson can score some but it's really because I think George is going to put up some points Carson back is awesome yes and and I can see that I can see Georgia coming out and making this is a statement game for whoever wins this game and and it's one of these that I and we'll have plenty of these on my side where I'm just gonna like I said I plug my nose it's a stinker I don't know how Clemson gets even close in this game but I would lean towards Clemson just because that's what the money's telling me I here the other thing like just outside gambling of it I feel like dabo's getting disrespected and I don't know if you've seen the numbers on Dabo as a dog no he's I think he's like 12 and one against the spread as a dog so I I do like Clemson in the spot but also Georgia could just come out and roll them like yeah there there's a lot of unknowns at being a week one game that's why I'm just like hey I'll just play the over I think both offenses are going to be better so uh next game also at noon we got Penn State at West Virginia the Backyard Brawl I'm very excited to watch this game yes uh I think both of these teams West Virginia obviously last year the the season that they had kind of came out of nowhere um and Penn State did the same thing that they always do they just go 10 and two and lose to Michigan in Ohio State and they obviously are a team with playoff aspirations but going on the road week one like I respect them for scheduling this game because West Virginia is not an easy place to play yeah what did we say earlier home dogs baby right yeah and we are both rolling with the home dogs so Nelly just showed up too West Virginia plus seven and a half we both have it we both love it yes I the line's stinky I almost feel like it should be more my my pick sheet just locked me out for whatever you go well and the good news is I got it at eight it's down to seven and a half I got it at 8 and a half and a lot of people if you're listen out there this is this is a a sneaky moneyline pick too if you like there there's people calling for this one and and that's you get into Co no one likes Franklin I mean let's be honest he's going to go down here something Penn State's going to happen but for me 30 another one where I'm just GNA I'm always going to take this game 31% of the bets but 50% of the money on there that is sharp money 31% of the bets but yet again we see that line moving towards the dog getting smaller and smaller West Virginia all day for me yeah I I'm I like outside of gambling too like I said I'm just interested in this game as a football and I want to see what Penn State's offense looks like and West Virginia like they just lived in close games last year so I want to see if they can consistently like keep doing that uh so at 3:30 we have the battle for Florida Miami at Florida Miami is favored by two and a half on the road the over under is 54 and a half we before we got into these games too we were talking about heat 33 at Florida at the swamp like there's going to be so many players cramping up it's just going to be miserable down on that field the the the the fourth quarter is going to be a constant whistle for people down uh in this game so so again I there's a theme to to my bets this week and it's just dogs I'm I'm on the dog again here um Florida at two and a half alls I'm hearing is about Miami Miami and this one's a little bit shakier for me because they they're only getting 20% of the bets which you know I love but only 27% of the money and that's that's just on that threshold that I like I really like it at 10 so it's actually a little light for me however that line hasn't move that Line's been stuck at two and a half yeah if Miami is getting all this money in there why isn't it going it's I love stinky lines I'm all over it and with h Florida getting two and a half see this one's too stinky for me but I have to play it because I'm going to watch it um so I I this was the under that I was that I looked at earlier I love the under in this game I think Miami with all their transfers we could see a team that's kind of clunky on offense early in the season and then like I both these teams have good defensive Talent so I I like the under here again it could be a helmet communication thing too especially with Cam Ward coming in first game for Miami you know he's still learning this offense everything I just think under is the play yeah and it's a pretty high number 54 and a half is is a high number oh yeah so yeah and when you get into it we look at uh we go back to last week I was talking about the stability of things people take cam Ward or djala Bala boala and they say oh they've got experience that's not a new quarterback that's a new quarterback in a new system I I'm not expecting much go going on there it's it's gonna take some time I don't think people give enough credit for like coordinator consistency yeah oh yeah especially like when thinking about these early season games like I want the guy that has been in that offense for some time so uh next game night game yeah Notre Dame at Texas A&M Texas A&M is favored by two and a half and the over under is 47 my I love this pick actually this might be my favorite pick of the week legitimately I I love I love A&M in this spot uh I just and I'm not like a huge A&M guy but I'm just not an Notre Dame believer whatsoever yeah and I also have the under 47 okay so you got them both all right all right so here comes our first Here Comes our first head to header uh I've got Notre Dame with 42% of the bets but a whopping 62% of the money uh so I would dive on to that one now that my problem is as you hear me talk about line moves I like that money usually I want that line to move in my favor this one due to injuries as we were talking has ticked a little bit towards Texas A&M so I jumped on the three I I I I mean two and a half it's funny to say two and a half I might not have but at at three I I'm gonna be leaning over there and if that jumps up to three you'll see me fire on Notre Dame are you are you in the same boat how I was talking earlier about the Georgia if it was at 13 and a half I would buy it to 14 are you buy a half a point guy or no I I am not but I will look at the money and if the money's not that bad because every so often you'll catch a DraftKings or or a B MGM or one of them to where it'll be let's say that usually the main the big numbers like 14 and three that it's going to be a little bit different but you can catch certain numbers to where it might be a minus 110 you can get minus 115 you can get a half point and I'll buy it for that nickel it just so I I don't like it because sometimes they really overcharge for that half point but you can find some stuff in there for sure especially when it's a football number like it's a you know 2 and a half to three 6 and a half to seven moving it like that yeah it does for whatever reason they they they juice that up a little bit that's for sure yeah um and then on Sunday night which I love that there's a Sunday like I this is the best part about we got Sunday Night Football we have a Monday night football game that's College yeah Sunday and no work on Monday no no exactly we get to relax a you can you get to stay up late that night yes I do I I might make it past nine o'clock this is a big week USC at LSU LSU is favored by four and a half over under is 64 and a Sunday Night Showdown: USC vs. LSU half so want me let you go you go first all right I IED on on USC at at the four at the four and a half it's another one of these this one's a a little bit shaky 18% of the uh bets but 28% of the money that's that 10% disparity that that I do like that it opened at six and a half again it moved to four and a half that people are taking USC the professional guys are taking USC this is one where I think we're going to get into and I hate talking like this this is usually where I get myself in trouble is I think USC is being disrespected and I think LSU is being overblown and to so that when I can look at those numbers and that's I like this spot for USC so I fired at four and a half I agree with everything you're saying and I'm on the same and I like the over okay this because I don't believe in either of the these defenses LSU for whatever reason just decided hey we don't need defensive tackles even though we really need defensive tackles like they I think had four different tackles visit in the from the portal none of them went there and USC new defensive coordinator did they have they learned how to tackle in the off season I hope so yeah I don't hope so for the Big 10 but I also hope so for this game right I LSU lost so much from that team last year I think that LSU is going to be a more runhe heavy offense for sure which that part I don't love for my over but you give me six if you see a number at 64 and a half in these two teams that I don't think can play defense I'm going to take it like it's just it's just a we go back to it it's a Vibes play and I'm gonna take the over and I'm gonna root for points in a Solo Sunday night spot but I really do love USC in the spot I would consider them on the money line to be totally honest with you yeah and and right now for those out there listening if uh Blake has a Vibe you better run with it because his Vibes were on yesterday they were I did all right yesterday uh Todd Todd is asking to join for a programming note Todd why don't you come on in yeah so because Blake made five bets and Mike made three what Betting Recap and Final Thoughts we're going to assume is you have $500 to play with so that means Mike puts his $500 on his three bets and then we'll compare the money afterwards okay we if we just want to do that with these absolutely I I could give you two other ones that I have uh to even out the 500 but I'll I'll take I'll take 500 on those three I'm good no I'm I'm down with that that's it we could we could do like the big five games and then once we get into the NFL we'll we're gonna adjust it but we can go head-to-head on those I'm down for that Abol we're kind of wait so actually though Todd I have seven picks yeah so yours would be split 50 bucks on the under 50 bucks on the win yeah yeah yeah yeah okay all all right I like that and for future reference when we're when we're putting our board up we'll make sure that we all have a play in that board on the board that way we we don't we don't have funky numbers yeah yeah and we can say audibly this is more of a lean than a definite play yeah yeah so I mean I mean yeah I mean you could even for for to for the sake of today you could put my two leans up there I would have no problem with that and then that way we I have five up there and your two leans were Clemson and Notre Dame correct boom boom yeah there it is that and then we'll have an even five up there now Todd's updating the graphic I still have seven picks I I'm addicted I'm addicted to picking games I love it oh it is it's so good I mean with i i cannot during the football season I can't tell you how excited I get to get to work an hour early Monday morning and start throwing numbers around like it it is so awesome and I I sent you the picture of my uh how how your sheet is like it's it's so old school I love it so like I have mine on like a Google doc I have like little notes next to it you're just like all you know what I did do though after you talked about it last week that y that app that you said you hated um what what was it called juice re oh juice re yeah well I I don't hate it I don't trust it I downloaded it and I love it I love that it's like a little like stock ticker yes it's so cool I like anything that make because in the past I would just use one book and I would just I didn't have a bunch of books on my phone this year I'm using three different ones I'm ju because the thing is nowadays like I'm getting all these emails and all this stuff for like you know bonus bets and you get the profit boost and all that stuff like I want that from all of them so I might as well just use them all and it's just gonna help me in the long run I might as well right oh absolutely now I that's what I would I was running with three for a while I felt I had better success with just the two two three got a little messy with me but I think having one's a mistake you have to have at least two because I can't tell you how many times I've caught good lines because going back and forth between the two yeah because money hits one when you go to bet it and it hasn't hit the other one quite yet and you you can get yourself a good half point point and a lot of things so I I love having at least two that's why I use there's a website that Exploring Betting Tools and Strategies I use called Action Network yeah and they have the line from all the books so you can like see live lines from all of them and kind of hand select which one and it'll give you like what's what book has the best line and all that so it's all the you know that's the beauty of where we're at now in gambling is there's so many tools at your disposal to make you you're not going to be a better gambler but you're going to be more informed old people are 100% 100% old old people are dumb shout out Sean Todd I'm taking the picks off so that we can get in the rest of these all right all right so back to our beautiful faces uh so is what other games because like I said I have a lot Y Analyzing Game Picks and Predictions what games like give me your your next best pick that you're really really into for this week cool all right well so my next favorite pick because I I've got the three up there I I mean I could I could just troll you with my Fresno State pick but that's not one of my favorite picks um it's a bad pick it's a bad pick they're not gonna this isn't Blake this is I have my amazing blue glasses off right they aren't going to score how do they block Michigan so this is where that I see this is our this is why we're good because that's how you go about it then I go about it knowing that but yet I look at 18% of the bets 39% of the money very contrarian that line should be all over moving towards Michigan it was frozen at 21 and a half dropped to 21 today and the the trend has been going for the under in that game so that under is gonna hit 21 points is my friend so yes they could they could get sh so that that that's kind of how I looked at that is that is not my favorite one up there um if the one I I Auto fire on would be Diving into Specific Game Insights uh UMass against emu I I took UMass on the money line uh because I they they went from dog to favorite the dog to favorite is is professional money that does that joob blow does not do that so I'm gonna automatically fire on that but sometimes if I could have caught it at one I I might have taken it at the minus one but it it bumped a little bit so I've got him on the uh money line I really like UMass should never be favored in a football game ever that's 100% a fact they're they're one of the worst football programs ever to have a division one program they're horrible they might make New Mexico look good that's I think that's a game later in the season and I can't I I promise you I will have play in that you stay tuned Blake will have a play in UMass New Mexico because I think they're both Independents no New Mexico's go ahead no I was say go ahead New Mexico's in the uh Mountain West New Mexico state's independent that's what it is all right all right all right so what's your next best one there uh 18 bet guy I well that was actually my my favorite one but we can talk about this one it's a game we kind of touched on earlier I love Hawaii plus the 14 at home against UCLA so about that game so that's on my I I was leaning I was looking I had it I was tracking it and then I scratched it off I scratched it off because I felt the move that was happening in that game wasn't money related wasn't football related it was uh bad press conference related to where as soon as that press conference aired that line moved yeah and and so I that's the only reason because 39% of the uh bets 69% of the money that's something that I would usually go after but the move that was happening towards Hawaii I don't think that's what influenced it it's actually it's ticked a little bit back but I I I agree with you but it was one that I scratched off I just I that's a tough like that's a lot of travel even for a West Coast team that's a long flight and I I don't understand why like a big time D1 program would ever schedule that game I don't get it to Hawai yeah well but for what right to risk losing right exactly do you think Hawaii's game last last week would had anything to do with not showing too much before the big bad Bruins come in that's probably true and that and Delaware State probably was like pissed off after like how you said all they went because we talked about that game last week you were like everything they went through there's no way that they like show up also though like how angry are you after bad travel oh how angry am I aftering five minutes from my house exactly so bad travel just pissed him off and they probably Came Out Swinging yeah yeah but I agree Hawaii probably was just like yeah let's just let's just get in here and get out like no point lucky to get away with the win but they did um so let's see another one here th this would be mine right Discussing Betting Trends and Theories after uh the UMass one is going to be Colorado State plus 32 and a half even though kicking myself because I think it's up to about 34 or 35 right now so I'm missing some points let me check go ahead keep talking why do you like it again 37% of the bets 75% of the uh money and that line ticked down towards Colorado State the line only happens because professional gamblers are there and listening to a lot of people they're they're not a lot of people aren't too high on Texas there there's not a lot Texas love out there and they believe Colorado state with what they have uh can keep this game within four touchdowns I mean lose by 28 go ahead I win yeah I mean you get there's some 33 and a half 34s out there definitely I um I like the over in that game I think I so I like I think Texas is really really good like I think that they will be playing for the SEC Championship I think their offensive line is one of the three best in the country like when we talk about Michigan Texas next week yeah that's my biggest fear for Michigan like as a Michigan fan in that game Texas is one of three teams in the country that can legitimately block Michigan that's how good their offensive line is that good and that deep I really like this Texas team and I think that they're going to put up points okay now with that we we talked about and you you brought up the the injury in Notre Dame Texas has had some big injuries also do you see that impacting them at all I do but I think that Texas is a deeper team than Notre Dame they recruit like Notre Dame recruits at a very good level don't get me wrong but Texas is like another step up from that because it's a lot easier to get kids into Texas than it is Notre Dame private school versus state school yeah so the like Notre Dame may get the same level of athlete but they can't get them at the same amount of them you know so I but like I said I like the over in that game I I do think Colorado State can score a little bit especially Texas is breaking in new defensive linemen they lost both of their first round Talent D tackles from last year so I I think that they won't have as good of a push up the middle and that could affect them especially in SEC play but I I'm me an experienced quarterback on Texas and the weapons that he's GNA have I think that they're going to put up points I would take I personally would lean Texas in that game but 33 and a half is too many points if it was if it was more like 27 28 I would probably be taking Texas Okay so I've got one of these picks that that again I didn't put it up there in the top but i' love it just because I don't know who's watching this game and I don't know who's betting on this game but I took Sam Houston getting 10 against rice I love that that's a sick game that is a sick sick game I love it so much but that is one so as I tell you on Mondays so and I I've got to start getting better on Sunday mornings I getting those first numbers for uh the NCAA but it's just automatic like when I get there and I sit down and I'm looking at my splits and I've got 45% of the bets 65% of that money and the money and the line moved from 12 to 10 towards Sam Houston that's a Mike bet that's it's just gonna happen every time I don't care vers anyway I am Auto fire on numbers like that the only problem I have with Sam Houston is they don't know how to spell Bearcats they spell it with a K and that really pisses me off I don't know if you knew that okay okay so that's you know that's just that's just Blake's dumb brain knowing [ __ ] like that but I I okay rice is not like rice is another one like we talked about with UMass rice shouldn't be favored in football games I I know that they're a better team than Sam Houston like talent-wise everything but like Rice football is not they shouldn't be favored by double digits that's for damn sure oh God no no no no no no no that I'm sure that goes a lot into where that money went so what are some other ones that you have okay so I wanted to ask you about one because I think it's another very stinky line very stinky I saw this earlier and I was like what is this line Oklahoma State is favored by nine and a half against San Diego State or South Dakota State South Dakota State sorry nine and a half when is that game ah let me look I'm trying to I'm trying to find it on my it's just that nine and a half for a team that a lot of people think are going to compete for the the Big 12 yeah huh I can't find it but nine that's a why can't we find it I don't know technical theot now what the hell where is it I just saw it earlier I because I was like I saw it and I was like this Line's stinky now I'm literally going through every single game that's I'm and there's 10 that's that's the only problem with football and that's why like with NCAA football I've gotta weed things out so fast or you just get overwhelmed with how much how much there is I can't find maybe did I like [Music] see something that I didn't see what the hell this game just disappeared it's not even here yeah I don't have I've got no I've got I've got nothing on it to no that it's at 2 pm tomorrow yeah 2 tomorrow so it'd be up 2 pm tomorrow boom now I got it right here yep yeah thank you Tim yeah yeah but that line is stinky yeah so stinky so a Blake was to make that line what would you make that line Blake uh at least 17 17 and a half but that's but I was I was just shocked by the that spread seems way too close for an FCS FBS game against a big 12 favorite yes and you are on a lot of people are on this one it's a very Oklahoma State's very popular at that number they're getting uh 82% uh of the bets 80% of the money so there's a lot of only 50 I'm looking at this now the public betting only 56% of the bets though yeah where I'm getting it is got 82% of the money right yep of the money okay okay yeah do you it's a weird line dude I don't know that that is that that is it's very weird and if there's one thing we're learning is that these teams coming in this San Diego they're South Dakota they're they're coming in a little bit hotter they're coming in and they're covering these numbers too so yeah they've got to cook that into it that would be one where I would look like just for me looking at looking at the numbers of it all I would run from that one sometimes you have to run from stinky it's so stinky it's so stinky I'm gonna end up playing it it seems it's so easy it has to work right I'm getting less than two touch yeah um Virginia Tech at Vanderbilt I like Vandy in this spot it's 13 and a half I would buy it to 14 but okay there's a lot of people really high in Virginia Tech this year they got their quarterback coming back I love how Todd's just changing what's under our names sometimes runs from stinky lines heart's a stinky line uh Warrior earlier but yeah Tech in the playoff talk I there's Virg Tech to win the ACC which obviously they would be in the playoff I I don't I don't understand it I and it's at Vanderbilt I know that's not a great HomeField Advantage but it's still travel not a lot of travel because Virginia to you know Tennessee is not that far but I just I like Vanderbilt spot I don't know what it is I that one I'm going to not watch this game and I'm I'm but I'm just gonna assume it's a win akan at Ohio Final Thoughts and Upcoming Events State over 57 and a half I think Ohio state will probably score that many points on their own yes so I actually as we as we start wrapping things up I've got some TR I'm always gonna try to throw Trends to see if I can get any of anybody out there wants to bite on them or see if I can get you to bite on them and that game is part is not only part of a trend like but is part of a huge Trend that I think I can get some people okay what is it lay it on me I love it lay it on you since 2013 week one favorites of 37 and a half or more are 14 and0 hitting at a clip of 100 percent and there's two games one of them is at Ohio State game they're favored by 48 and a half and I'm watching one uh right now and Oklahoma's up 34 but Oklahoma was favored by 42 and a half at one point so those two teams hit both of that but that is a 100% Trend so it's got to hit that that's free money basically free money so it looks like it's gonna hit it's looks like it's gonna hit today in the Oklahoma game too late but that's got to be out there that Ohio State minus 48 and a half is part of a 100% hit uh Trend there I the problem is is I have this thing on my phone it does not allow me to bet for Ohio State it just doesn't let me I don't know I it's blocked it does that if I do it it just doesn't let me so that's why I'm like I'll just take the over and I'll root for akan to score once that's all need because I honestly think that that's it I mean I will now that you've said that I'm going to play it I wish you had told me that before the Oklahoma game that would have been nice information I one of those where my brain didn't tell me that the Oklahoma game was today until I was watching it okay um let me just I'll fire through a couple more of these real quick Nevada at Troy Nevada should have beaten SMU so I'm just gonna I'm going to take Nevada plus the nine and a half okay Idaho at Oregon over 62 and a half it's again it's the same thing as the Ohio State game I just think that they're going to put up could put up that many points on their own and or do yes and especially with Oregon they're breaking in a new quarterback Dylan Gabriel he's already getting like Heisman hype yep he could probably stay in that game a little longer too because they got to get some continuity going with that offense before they hit big 10 play so I like I like that over a lot um Fresno State at Michigan we talked about this I I love Michigan in this spot okay it's a banner night 20 and a half it's only it's if I can get it at 20 and a half if it gets past that I understand what you're were saying but it's a banner night they're hanging a banner you take the team on Banner night every Chiefs week one they could be playing anyone they won the superable I'm taking them on Banner night I love it I love it love it all right reason it's a banner night yep it works but you said that there's a there's a lot of money on the under right yeah that that's that's trending towards the under uh 45 and a half is the number it's a night game so I got to scroll down here for a second and I've got yeah that that is that is a is a a daddy special uh with 31% of the bets and 73% of the money on that under okay that that is a professional under there I used to have a theory about Michigan Home overs Parts a day you're on one tonight uh Michigan like Michigan used to I swear they would go for overs at home especially in these types of spots because it makes boosters happy oh yeah does oh yeah but I don't I just don't I don't know how Fresno is going to score if there's one thing I'm confident in it is Michigan's defense and especially their defensive line they got two guys on the defensive line that could be top five picks that's not that's not Homer Blake that's just me being real so I just don't I don't know how Fresno's going to score on them watch they're going to put up like 21 and I'm just going to be completely wrong about this but uh and then the other two games that have to do with week zero games that I like uh gim me Georgia State plus 21 at Georgia Tech that there's never been more of a come-down spot oh yeah oh yeah and that's recency biased that that line that if they don't win that game that line nowhere near that no no not even close and not that Georgia state is some like great team but Tim did the Notre Dame line move a bunch is that what you're saying see Notre Dame line now I have to look somebody just says something in the chat and I get distracted oh it is moving a little bit it's at three now there we go that's that's the number I said right are we are we moving lines on the show right now that's what I just heard well that that's I think they moved it just to steal my money that's true because that that is what I said I said if that if I could see that get to uh to three that would be a play for me so if it's gonna get to three maybe it gets to three and a half so this is where I just sit and I let it marinate for a little bit um and then the other one that has to do with week zero I actually like Florida State minus the 16 and a half I'm ready to get hurt again by DJ yulong yeah I'm ready hey I I'll give you all the props that one and and wish you the best of luck I wouldn't I wouldn't touch that that I don't they could come out and murder them they they really could but what we saw last week that that was not good that was not good I don't know who was more unimpressive to me Florida State in that loss or Colorado in that win okay Dion what I okay that game last night just real quick was the most frustrating football game the first half they couldn't Tackle Colorado could not tackle and but they were scheming guys wide open like yes WTF open y but then in the third quarter Colorado remembered how to tackle but then they forgot how to scheme Guys open y it was the most I I had Colorado on the team total over I think it was like 34 and a half I felt so good about it and it was just never gonna hit I can't believe the over hit I can't believe that I did not mush that one in the first quarter I had a text written out like oh damn I'm so pissed I didn't take that over with you but I deleted it I said no way that first quarter looked like it was going to be out of control but that Colorado that was everything that went wrong last year after after they had that hot start and every bad game they had looked just like that yeah Dion's not a good coach he's just not a good coach he's he's a hype guy that's great he's gonna get people's eyeballs on Colorado he's not a good recruiter and he's not a good football coach so whatever not at all I'm with I pushed on a part I don't know if I told you this I pushed on a parlay last night because of that Minnesota kick I had Minnesota plus two in a parlay and the under in that game which was never in doubt like that was the easiest under I I might have all year I had that I had I so I had Minnesota I had the under and then it was a four-leg so I still won it technically because of the push but yeah I really wanted Minnesota to make that field goal but like I was texting Sean about it during the game but and he's like you know how this is going to end I'm like yeah it's fine if it ends as long as it's within two points like don't yeah all right all right all right well we have a lot of action we have a lot of action for tomorrow uh we have a lot of action I I've got two more that again back deck Beer's going I can see me firing on and I I'm just sitting and waiting because you have mentioned the Nevada I've got circled the UN UNLV plus one and a half against Houston it's got my splits 21 to 55 but the line kind of uh moved the wrong way on me a little bit I like oneway movement when it goes to towards my team if it starts ticking back the other way it ticked a little bit back towards Houston meaning that another sharp better kind of came in and and got some money in on that that makes me uh that scares me a little bit but if that line gets back up I could see me taking that one and another one with who's watching what Charlotte plus seven against James Madison um James Madison's a darling they a lot of people talk a lot a lot of people like their whole roster is on Indiana though their entire like I'm not joking their whole roster went with cetti which was the coach JMU last year they all went with him so they I I agree they should not be favored by that many points I still think they should be favored because Charlotte lost a lot too and I believe their head coach is former Michigan assistant Biff POI who's which is just a great name um but they have a bunch of guys out too for because I just watched I just saw a clip of this last night he said it was for injuries they lost a bunch bunch of guys in Camp it's rumored that they just had to suspend a bunch of guys for like stuff but he came out and said it was for injuries but that yeah I don't know but jamu should not be favored by that many points in that spot I agree 100% yeah the the only thing that shook me on it uh and I'll see how my my early games go is that the I I also have a cut off of two and a half points I hate losing a field goal and that line moved over three points and I was like h I missed that lines but th those are two that two other ones I'll be looking at but I think we've got we've got a lot going on we have a lot we're gonna see who does better in our in our five picks of the week okay which will be very exciting um and then next weekend well yeah next weekend we have I mean we got NFL so this is it's just going to be even more there just going to be so much we're gonna have we'll we'll the same competition to Todd for NFL picks are you cool with that Mike yep 100% perfect so we appreciate everyone watching everyone listening we hope everyone does well with their week one bets Todd thank you so much for everything you do on the back end and Mike good luck man no mushing picks this week all right no I'm not I I I almost did it I almost did I am not doing it I get a little I get a little excited I get a little excited but I know what happened all right and you have been listening to off theboard and you're still listening old people are dumb