The future of freight transport - be a mover talk with Prof. Dr. Helena Wisbert, director of CAR

Published: Sep 11, 2023 Duration: 00:19:37 Category: Autos & Vehicles

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Hello and welcome to our new "Be a mover" talk. I’m Jörg Howe, part of the Daimler Truck community, and I have a special guest today. Professor Helena Wisbert. Correct? Yes. Professor of Automotive Economics and for almost a year also Director of the Center for Automotive Research in Duisburg. The professorship is in Wolfsburg, Ostfalia University, the Center for Automotive Research is in Duisburg. How does that fit together? How do you manage it? To make things even more interesting, I live in Neuss near Düsseldorf. Yes, Niederrhein. That's right. I commute between three cities. That's right. And that? Isn't that a little bit spread out, a little too complex. They complement each other very well, because I have a professorship for automotive economics and the Center for Automotive Research. Of course, the content that we create is also partially incorporated into the lectures. So it's a really good combination that I've chosen. Okay. Now you came to the topic of automobiles and innovation for environmentally compatible solutions relatively early on. You actually studied business administration. How did you happen to focus on automotive economics? Very early. I started with my diploma thesis, so to speak, that was back in 2008. In 2008, we were already talking about electric cars, just like today. And in some cases I still hear today, are they going to win out? I'm often asked that question, that is, in the passenger car sector. And the same questions existed as early as 2008. So that’s a long time ago and with the diploma thesis I’d just entered the automotive industry with the transformation of the automotive industry as it were, wrote my thesis on environmentally oriented product innovations in the European automotive industry . I was at Volkswagen at the time in Group Research and then remained there. Okay, wasn't it rather hard for a woman to get into this field? In a rather male-dominated automobile company? So by starting as a diploma student, later when I was in the doctoral program at Volkswagen, we were a very mixed team, so almost the same number of men and women came from the university. But then, as things progressed, I was sometimes the only woman in the meetings. So you're right. And was that a strange feeling or do you feel that you were included? Or were you somehow kept a bit at a distance? I was included. It was all about the research. When you're dealing with electric cars, do you have the feeling that things are moving forward or that things are not moving forward at all? Or we are still at the point where we actually don't have the infrastructure, but the cars may already be there. How do you feel about the situation? So last year we had a boom year for electric cars and now this year we're slowing down a bit. We’re on something of a plateau, and the first hype has unfortunately died down. Obviously, economic conditions are also not conducive now for these rather expensive vehicles. And then there's the environmental bonus, which has just been reduced. Those are a few points that have now taken some wind out of the sails of the whole thing. Exactly, so a lot still has to be done now to ensure that these goals are achieved. Towards the goal of 15,000 electric cars on German roads in 2030 roads, 1 million refueling points by 2030 in Germany. So you have to come up with something. The German automotive industry has always been way out in front when it comes to combustion engines. You have to honestly say technology is tops, but you also have to talk about prices. Is this lead still there or is China slowly overtaking us? So the German automotive industry really has to get moving to avoid being overtaken by the new competitors because at the moment the success of the German automotive manufacturers is still based on combustion engine vehicles, and we see it in markets where more electric cars are already being sold, especially in China. China is the world’s largest automotive market and the world’s largest automotive market for electric cars. We can see that the market shares have gone to the new competitors. And now it’s really important to speed up the pace. If you look at battery technology, who has the lead worldwide at the moment? Is it China, America, Korea, Japan, Germany? Who, so to speak, is a leader in battery technology? From a cost perspective, those vehicle manufacturers who control the entire value chain . In other words, the Chinese vehicle manufacturers. BYD comes from the battery sector, they are familiar with it, but Tesla as well, because they have also intensified their focus on this area. But of course, the German car manufacturers, who are now picking up the pace and building their own battery cell production and are also gaining more control over this large cost factor. Then there’s the Inflation Reduction Act in the USA, which says come to us if it’s environmentally friendly technology for the future. We'll finance 50% of your investments. Are there counter-developments in Europe or even in Germany to bring the technology here, to keep it here? So in Europe there are now also funding programs. A center for battery cell production is to be established in Spain in particular. So Europe is now trying or the EU is trying to make it more attractive to invest in Europe. Do you think that this is successful? It has to be successful because this strong dependence on different regions is what needs to be alleviated a bit. That’s critical to success, in any case. If you look at trucks, that's potentially a problem. When I want to drive with a battery for heavy-duty distribution transportation, so that I have a good payload from the batteries. Do you think it can still be a success model to drive such specific types of trucks with batteries? That is, for shorter distances? Yes, because you just said it. So the weight of the truck then increases linearly with the range of the battery. That's in the nature of things. And today with the batteries that are currently on the market, heavy-duty long-distance truck transportation, that's not yet feasible today. Do you think that there's an alternative to batteries for long-distance transportation? Is it hydrogen? The hydrogen fuel cell. Precisely. Precisely because if that’s not the case, the problem is solely with the power supply equipment. So, if you somehow drive south outside Germany, where should that be built? And we're lacking tens of thousands of parking spaces for trucks. And then to think about it, okay, the downtimes have to be used somewhere for charging. And of course, that takes even longer with trucks. Where we're already reaching to some extent an acceptance limit with cars. So that's really still a long way off. And then hydrogen fuel cell technology, that’s the solution for this sector. What conditions need to be met to make a hydrogen fuel cell successful? Getting the costs under control. That's still a major topic today. It’s twice as expensive a truck, a truck with hydrogen fuel cells is twice as expensive as a conventional truck and, of course, there's also the infrastructure. In other words, to be able to really refuel with hydrogen. That’s critical for success, to actually scale the whole thing up and get it on the road. When I think about our own history, we founded a joint venture, cellcentric, with Volvo Truck, our toughest competitor. We want to build a factory in Weilheim unter Teck. We've been messing around with the approval processes for over two years. Do we even have a chance in Germany if we have such lengthy approval processes to establish such future technologies here in our country? Well, of course that’s also a bit of the problem, that is to say, creating the prerequisites, which must be achieved politically, for example, reducing the red tape and bureaucracy involved. We don't only see it with hydrogen fuel cell technology, we also see it in the power supply equipment. So until the whole thing has been set up and it’s been approved, that simply takes too long. But that’s an idiosyncrasy in Germany. But is it also the task of the industry to say okay, what's needed to provide the whole thing competitively here, so to speak, to go over to the VDA? Do you think that the VDA is the right lobbying group to press ahead with that? Yes, definitely. I sometimes have an issue with it, I have to say honestly. I think the history of the VDA, which has Matthias Wissmann, former transport minister as boss, then in the meantime somebody from the automotive industry who then said during the IAA that he no longer wanted to hold this position. And then Hildegard Müller took over. You then felt that there was a new momentum again. But really to the point where you say yes, but now it’s time to get going. I don't see it at the moment. Or am I looking at it wrong? Yes, that's perhaps a matter of opinion. I see it differently. So I can already see that with a certain pressure and then also intensity that it is moving forward, and also pressure is being exerted so that these prerequisites are being met. Because we see it in the passenger car sector. In the truck sector, we don't see it so intensely yet, but in the car sector we see very clearly that the competition is really building up pressure there now. And, of course, there really is a need for action and I think all the players have understood that by now. When you're dealing with your students, do you have the feeling that they have an awareness for the future, that there has to be a change to alternative drives, to CO2 neutrality, to mobility, and that they may also have to be ready to accept restrictions. Is this, so to speak, the mindset of the new students who are there? So there are two directions; on the one hand, the students who say sustainability is a trend, and I have the choice when buying a car or deciding on mobility to include sustainability as a criterion or not. So this urgency that climate change really requires a rethink is not there for half of the students. That's a decision, so to speak. Is it important to me or not? And the other group that says I question whether I really want to drive my own vehicle or whether I will use mobility somehow differently, or whether I will use other mobility services because the idea of sustainability is important to me because it's urgent. So there are these two different directions. If you look at the blockade campaign of the last generation, do you sympathize with it? Sympathy for the cause but not for the implementation. Unfortunately, that's because it has had the opposite effect. So it is precisely these road blocks that were supposed to reach the mainstream and win people over by advocating for environmental protection and climate protection, and these actions have had the complete opposite effect. So if anything counterproductive? That is counterproductive. Yes, the method is very counterproductive. What kind of feedback do you get from your students about these activities? We discussed it. At the beginning, these campaigns had not yet happened. They have become more and more extreme. And at the beginning there was still a part who said: Yes, that will wake people up or shake them up, we think that’s good. But this sympathy has decreased more and more. So if something happened in the last few months, there was only head shaking. Although it’s actually due to the age structure, there are many of them who are there as a last generation. Taken literally, it means that something can still be changed. I do not hope it's the last generation. The last generation before ... Yes, of course. I have to come back to hydrogen. We always say that hydrogen as a fuel will only be available in the future if there is enough green hydrogen. What do you think of that? That's right. That is a precondition. I often forget to say it because it’s the foundation, because we want to move towards CO2-neutral mobility , we want to move toward CO2-neutral transportation. And of course, that can only be done with green hydrogen, that is, based on green electricity. Which we cannot produce in Germany; hydrogen production will therefore probably be here, there are now these programs, but that's of course the challenge. I think of the power lines that are to go from north to south because in the north we basically have enough green hydrogen from wind energy, but we sell it abroad partly because we cannot bring it down via the pipeline systems. That's right. What do you think about the possibility say from Saudi Arabia or Morocco, then hydrogen in liquid form to be transferred to Germany? Yes, the market price will then decide where an attractive price is actually possible. In these regions, hydrogen will probably be more affordable to produce than here in Germany , but the market will then decide which region will lead the way. Thinking about the truck situation, do you think that we will still have so many trucks or many more on the road in the coming years? Or will more go by rail? How can you imagine that now in your forecast? So at the moment we are increasingly shifting to truck transportation, and in the coming years, I don't see this development going unchecked over the next ten years. So it will continue to develop in this way because rail transportation takes time until the infrastructure has been built up. We see in Germany, that it takes much longer and by then the hydrogen fuel cell trucks will be on the road. And is the CO2-based toll actually a vehicle for bringing more environmentally friendly vehicles onto the road? So with the toll concept, it must be a comprehensive solution. We can't implement a toll concept in individual countries. That would then lead to unfair competition. So that’s why, throughout Europe, sure, but that’s a mammoth task, that’s why: toll is based on an idea. Great idea, but difficult to implement. Now we have relatively many vehicles in Eastern Europe, freight forwarders who are always pushing into Central Europe, also because of the financial situation with regard to drivers and so on. From your point of view with the EU, is there somehow a solution to balance out this pay gap and to let people transport under equal working conditions, so to speak. Do you see the difficulty? So there are too few truck drivers, it’s getting more and more volatile. But that's not a task for policy, because it makes the whole thing more appealing. So I see it as difficult to intervene in the market. Do you think, for example, that higher salaries play a role here? In the USA, we now have UPS, where drivers receive $170,000 per year. That will shortly be the case. Will there then be a highly paid truck driver in the future? So something has to be done, it has to be more attractive. And clearly, definitively and also from the working hours, and so today we were five hours on the road to you and that’s really true. Yes, of course, the framework conditions are somehow becoming increasingly difficult. With many construction sites and, of course, with the frequencies that are on the roads. If you had a wish for the transportation of the future, what would it look like? The transportation of the future. The van or transportation? The van. So let’s say. Yes, so CO2 neutral in any case, but with the same dynamism. Same performance as we know it today. And when we look at local transport systems, is it easier to flip the switch to CO2 neutrality, so to speak? Yes, because the trucks or the vans, the buses , can always drive back to the home base, where they can charge. And that’s why it’s easy, of course, and we're already seeing it, and that’s really an advantage for the cities, that is, the silent buses that are traveling around. That’s good, that’s good. Good, I have another favorite topic that I finally have to put to you: Overhead lines, systems. There is a test route near Frankfurt that is currently being extended. I never see trucks driving there. In my home state of Schleswig Holstein, there's also one that is making local residents crazy because the wind causes the power lines to vibrate and high-frequency sounds to be emitted. And here in the Murg valley, there is also a test route that nobody wants any more. Is such a catenary system dead, is it a dead end? I think, yes, because this structure is exactly what we need to install first. We don't have the time either. Therefore it's about achieving the EU’s climate goals. And if we have to build it up everywhere we’ll surely end up in the woods. So from my point of view, that's not a solution that can now be put on the road in the next five years and save the world. Nevertheless, are you optimistic for the future that things will get better? CO2-neutral. Yes. Because we have a high level of innovation in Germany, in the automotive industry. And there are good concepts on the way. They now have to be scaled up, they have to become cheap or cheaper. But that will come over the next few years. Good, I wish you all the best for your future in the automotive industry and in research and teaching, and I would be pleased if we would meet again in the foreseeable future. And you would tell us a little bit about how you fared and how you have progressed in university and technical matters. Thank you very much for participating. Thank you very much for having me. It was fun. I would also like to thank our dear colleagues and friends for watching. That was the "Be A Mover" talk for today. It was about CO2-neutral transportation, about the difficulties that lie ahead of us. And we had a very knowledgeable interview partner, and I will say it again, with Professor Helena Wisbert. Thank you, and until next time.

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