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[Music] hello my name is Bella rasa you are watching for the latest news of the world historian who accurately predicted nine of last 10 presidential elections makes his 2024 pick Washington Alan lichman the historian who correctly predicted the outcome of nine out of the 10 most recent presidential elections has made his guess on who will reclaim the White House this year spoiler alert it's vice president kamla Harris lichman said in a video first reported by the New York Times that he based his prediction on 13 keys or big picture true false questions that tap into the strength and performance of The White House party before receiving the title of distinguished Professor from the American University in Washington DC liman earned a PhD specializing in modern American history and quantitative Methods at Harvard in addition to lecturing in the US and around the world latman is the author of 13 books and hundreds of academic articles he has also been an expert witness in civil and voting rights cases he routinely provides political commentary and is best known for his election forecasting forecasting Pioneer predicts Harris will win election a notable elections forecaster predicted vice president Harris will win November's election according to his model of 13 Keys Alan lickman a his historian who has successfully predicted the outcome of nine of the last 10 presidential elections revealed in a New York Times video that he believes that Harris will clinch a victory over former president Trump his election model is based on 13 true or false questions that ignore polls and pollsters the White House Party gained House Seats in the 2022 midterm elections the Democrats did better than expected in 2022 but they still lost House Seats so the key is false he said the sitting president is running for reelection Biden withdrew from the race costing the Democrats this key it is false lichman said and third the incumbent Party's candidate is teristic this is a very high threshold key you have to be a once- in a generational broadly inspirational candidate Harris has not met that standard so this key is false lickman said the remaining two keys including a foreign policy failure or a foreign policy success could still flip in Trump's favor before the election foreign policy is tricky and these Keys could flip the Biden Administration is deeply invested in the war in Gaza which is a humanitarian disaster with no end in sight but even if both foreign policy Keys flipped false that would mean that there were only five negative Keys which would not be enough for Donald Trump to regain the White House he said in the video thanks for