Tropical System Likely to Intensify in the Caribbean, Two More to Watch • 31/08/24

[Music] hi everyone welcome to this updated video I trist and hope you're doing awesome today so we're going to be talking about these three disturbances so some time ago there was nothing here uh no new tropical Cyclones expected within the next s days and now here we have a couple systems to watch for development as we're going to be heading into the new week so we've got our uh tropical wave out there highlighted in Orange it is given that 50% chance of formation over the coming days and then we have two areas in yellow another tropical way very close to the Caba ver the islands and another disturbance that is located in the Gulf of Mexico so that Gulf system is the most recent and we could see it loyer around and try to feed off the warm Waters of the golf before it eventually gets itself together so some models are suggesting development of of that area and also development of the other two out there so we're going to be talking about these and switching to the satellite imagery there we can see uh the activity associated with them so we've got the first tropical wave pretty disorganized right now with showers and thunderstorms nonetheless it is going to be in a conducive environment to allow for intensification especially as it enters the Caribbean and then for the tropical wave behind it we can see that little blob associated and then heading to the Caribbean uh we can see some showers and thunderstorms around as well a third tropical wave is actually located in the region right now and uh as we take a look at this graphic we can see the axes of the Waves so we've got the first disturbance the one behind it and then that tropical wave in the west Caribbean that's continuing to propagate to the West so uh it's going to be helping out to enhance the rainfall in the area today and speaking of which as we switch to these uh the rainfall forecast for today here we can see that the map gets pretty colorful in some areas Northern Bahamas for example we're seeing those vibrant red shadings so there could be rainfall amounts up to an inch or so similar thing for some spots in Cuba uh even for the Cayman Islands so the Cayman Cayman brag Grand Cayman there could be some showers and thunderstorms around today Jamaica especially as we head to the afternoon hours it's going to get active and for for a few spots in his which comprises Haiti and the Dominican Republic headed to Puerto Rico the Virgin Allens there could be some scattered showers and thunderstorms around similar story for the lanes anguila all the way through Grenada even for Trinidad tobaco and Barbados but maybe a little bit active a bit further south you can see more color there compared to some of the northern islands Turks and Kos Island Southern Bahamas some scattered showers and thunderstorms ABC Adam it could get a little wet today hopefully that's going to be the case with some rainfall so that uh you you know there could be some relief from the heat cuzz it's undoubtedly been dry and hot down there and then as we head to Northern South America Northern Colombia parts of Venezuela much of Guyana and Surinam it's likely to be pretty active today as well there could be some showers and thunderstorms then for uh Central America also seeing it being colorful and that's been the trend so the area is likely to remain active but then as it pertains to the disturbance as it is going to be moving in even if it does not develop while it crosses lesser an to leaves it's likely to enhance the rainfall activity there early next week so we see that arrow pointing towards that shaded Orange area that's where we could see development take place so when it is just to the east of the leran it could start getting itself together and as I said it would likely enhance the rainfall for the leran and normally with uh tropical systems the problem is the water now some areas definitely need a good downpour some ear have been dry and hot but when we're talking about something trying to develop and persistent Heavy Rain that would lead to flooding so that's the downside here but there's a possibility that the system could cross through leran uh maybe just as a tropical wave potentially a tropical depression or so but most of the models really want a favorite development as it enters the Eastern Caribbean and then most uh of them also show the system heading into the Gulf of Mexico and even rapidly intensifying so there is that Trend as well and speaking of which we're going to head on to some model data the ensembles within a moment but going on to this next disturbance here we can see a 20% chance of formation as it is going to be moving to the west and then the West Northwest so models have been trending towards an eventual curve of the system so it's unlikely this is going to continue with somewhat of a similar thing is what we see with the uh current tropical wave with that Medium chance of formation so it's not likely to continue on a generally Westward trajectory so we could see a West Northwest where track eventually become of this system here and that formation chance remains low going to the gulf we can see that area just within the vicinity of Texas with a 20% chance of formation so it's really going to be Meandering around there and as I said earlier it could uh take advantage of the warm Waters of the gulf and even the upper level winds being favorable as well so once those conditions are in place long enough and the system really gets itself together then we could see it try to acquire tropical storm status and with these three disturbances there's no guarantee that all three will become tropical storms eventually but the next three names on the list are Francine Gordon and Helen so if we should have all three becoming named storms uh depending on which one becomes a name storm first which uh most models kind of favor the current tropical wave that has that Medium chance of formation eventually they'll acquire names once they reach that threshold but going on to some model data now we can see the ensembles here for Euro now this goes out to the next 10 days and we can see that over the course of the next 10 days the system all of these models of these members rather The Ensemble members take the system into the Caribbean all of them now show that we have a couple that want to take it more towards Jamaica Cuba maybe even near Haiti and the Cayman Island as well and a couple that show it uh staying south of the greater an Le but then eventually making its way over towards Central America and even in the Gulf so regardless of the track whether it is a bit further to the North or a bit further to the South we kind of have majority of these models uh members here suggesting that this is going to eventually move into the Gulf of Mexico and then as for the second tropical wave out there the one near the kabo ver the island we can see as I said that vental uh turns to the north is expected and that's depicted by a majority of these members here so with the area of high pressure weakening a bit as the system is going to continue to the West it will have an opportunity to move up and out because that area of high pressure is really what steers these system so they travel along the periphery of it because it can't go through so they have to move around it so once they have the opportunity to curve up and out especially or stronger systems they're going to take it so we can see that that is forecast by the Euro members going on to GFS here we can see that GFS is a little bit more dispersed with the disturbances so we can see them definitely expecting that the second tropical wave is going to be curving up and out potentially developing as well but as for that uh one closer to the Caribbean we can see some of these want to show an earlier turn up to the north and out of the Caribbean a couple of these want to take this a bit further to the West some show that hey this may eventually move into the Gulf so we can see that nothing is really solid just yet the Euro members I have to say Euro has been very much consistent about the expectation in terms of the development of it but we still don't have anything solid just because of the fact that it's still far out and it's not a fully developed system we still have some ways to go with this but that is why my channel is here to keep you guys updated but regardless as I said uh regardless of it developing into tropical depression or tropical storm at the time it's going to be entering the Caribbean once it's going to be moving through it is likely to result in an increase in rainfall for the Leer anti and depending on the uh quantity of rain that can result in flooding and then just say where else is going to be exact uh to say the exact area that will be affected next that is something that I just cannot say at this point we have to watch the system and uh see what it decides to do especially over the course of the coming day or two so that's it for right now guys and I do hope you found this update to be informative but if you do have questions feel free to leave them in the comments I will respond to you when I can and remember to always be witha wise