[Music] hello everyone welcome back thank you so much for joining me today even though the United States economic data that was released this week appears to be quite Rosy don't let that confuse you I know the majority of us can see right through those reports we can see right through those promises we're being told by the BLS the Bureau of Labor Statistics that consumer prices in August increased only 2.5% compared to the same time last year and compared to an increase of 2.9% in July so the latest data seems to point to a decline in inflation which is of course boosting chances of a rate cut let me know if you're seeing those price declines in your areas I would love to hear from you and to get an a better idea a better feel of what you're experiencing maybe include a general area of where you're located as well according to August BLS report the top three items that increased the most were vehicle insurance 16.5% transportation services 7.9% and shelter costs an increase of 5.2% the housing affordability crisis is not going anywhere anytime soon earlier this week JP Morgan CEO Jamie Diamond warned that the United States economy is quite possibly facing an outcome that is far worse than a recession it would be fair to argue here that well actually we have been in a recession for quite some time now but what may follow after the Federal Reserve Cuts rates at its September meeting may be far worse than the economic downturn of 2008 and yes I am referring to a possibility of stagflation what is stf flation very quickly it is economic stagnation or a significant slowdown coupled with Rising prices or inflation the most concerning part is that St flation results in unemployment numbers to rise in a recession unemployment does increase as well but there is little to no inflation the last time the United States experienced a stack flation was in the 1970s when the decline in the quality of life of an average American was astronomic iCal as their purchasing power was completely wiped out there are several similarities now to the events that preceded stagflation of the 1970s first of all the money supply grew faster than the economy at that time leading to inflation and this is precisely what started back in 2019 and the results of it we're still experiencing today if we look at the supply of money in our economy now M2 we will certainly see a steep increase over the past several years another fact to remember is that in the 1970s US President Nixon devalued the US dollar to encourage exports to make American experts more appealing the third Catalyst then at that point in time was of course the surge in crude oil prices prices increased nearly four times in the 70s today crude oil prices have declined since their Peak back in May of this year however this is just something to keep in mind to keep on your reader because with the escalations in the Middle East there is absolutely no guarantee what may happen with respect to energy Commodities especially now that we are heading uh in the colder winter months so I would argue that this remains to be seen but it's certainly a considerable risk as you can see it is not a stretch to say that the conditions are quite similar not the same but arguably now they're even more challenging here's a quick video of Jamie Diamond discussing the possibilities of station take a quick look I always say the worst outcome is is stagflation it's a recession with higher inflation and I you know my own view I wouldn't take that off the table I know everyone thinks you know inflation is coming down and we won that Victory i i i caution that a little bit uh because if you look forward there are a lot of inflationary forces out there huge deficits the green economy remilitarization of the world restructuring of trade things like the IRA act the chips act infrastructure needs they are all inflationary and you know in the basically in the short run the next couple year so so it's hard to for me to look at that and say well know we're out of the woods I I don't think so Diamond mentioned higher deficits here's what you need to know this week the US Treasury Department just reported that the United States government spent more than $1 trillion dollar just think about that more than $1 trillion dollar this year on interest payments alone this is a 30% increase from the prior year what why does this matter you may ask well it matters because out of control government spending especially when we are looking at 35.3 trillion dollar in national debt and Counting and $1 trillion doll and counting per year of interest payments alone government spending actually drives budget deficits at this time there is absolutely no cure for that government deficits effectively mean that the government is broke but because it is the United States government it can continue issuing us treasuries and it can keep that printer on as well if it wishes to and of course it will keep financing it's spending that way using your tax ta dollars to pay for policies that you likely don't even support or even know about us budget deficit is approaching $2 trillion for 2024 the deficit has ballooned by 24% compared to last year with an August shortfall of $380 billion record-breaking monthly revisions in employment data as well as the latest manufacturing report do show that the United States economy is slowing down more than expected I do believe that Jamie diamond made an excellent point and I'm typically very skeptical of the phrase more or less than forecasted or than expected because it literally means nothing unless we know what those expectations were based on and if those expectations are created the same way that uh those wonderful employment numbers are created then well it's fair to say they're meaningless but he does have an excellent point and as I just showed you they're very very concerning red flags that we do need to keep our eyes on having said that I hope that this quick video raises awareness of what to expect of those red flags that I just walked you through um there is a very high probability that the rate Cuts will send prices up the rate cut is not an economic decision this time it is a political one so it's economic implications will likely be quite unwelcomed thank you for watching I hope that you enjoyed this video that you learned something from it remember to like subscribe and share to show your support it goes a long way make sure that you are subscribed to my backup on Rumble it only takes a moment to subscribe you will find all of my Social Links in the video description below and I will see you back here tomorrow enjoy the rest of your day bye for now