let's break down who's winning in the polls nationally and in every Battleground State it's been a weird week because the expectation was the DNC would happen and Harris's lead would get extended but at the end of the week Donald Trump got endorsed by RFK Jr who dropped out of the race so people expected that to really give Trump a major boost let's take a look at the polls and see what actually happened let's start with the national polls where Harris still holds a 3.2% lead and that is after last week where she had a 3.5% lead so she lost .3% now that we factored in the RFK Jr Dropout element and just for a little context these are the last 31 National polls and Trump is winning in zero of them so it's not as if there was this huge shift where RFK dropping out really put him over the top he's still losing in the most recent polls he gained. 3% all right let's jump into Pennsylvania our first and most important Battleground state where Harris still maintains a 1.2% average last week it was averaging out to about 1.8% so the RFK dropping out effect got him about half% % back into the game but haris still maintains that lead now we jump over to Michigan where haris still carries a 2.4% lead but last week it was 3.3 so she's lost almost a percentage Point here due to RFK dropping out we'll see how the next week or so goes but I think that this is probably where she's going to level out for a bit and the debate is going to decide if this goes up or down now to Wisconsin where Harris still carries a lead at 3.2% almost getting outside that margin of error she had a 3.8% lead last week so lost about 6 to RFK dropping out in in the end it's pretty akin to what we've seen in most these other states that she's lost a little bit of ground but not a whole lot now we jump to Arizona where Harris still carries a fractional 0.2% lead she had a 1.3% lead last week so she's lost a whole percentage point to Trump since RFK dropped out we'll see if she's able to get back in the race if Trump was able toow on this lead we'll see Arizona's been a very strange State this whole time with polling it's really been schizophrenic I've seen polls with Harris by up as much as 8% or I've seen polls with Trump up 5% so this is one of those states where I truly have no idea what's going on and I think we're not going to see a lot of clarity in this until we get way closer to the election oddly enough in Nevada nothing has changed she had a 0.7% lead last week she has a 0.7% lead this week Nevada is another one where I've seen polls that are very heavily Harris and other ones that are very heavily Trump it's another state where I truly don't know what's going on there's no great consistent polling so it's one of those things where the next couple months are really going to determine what direction the state is going to go now jumping to my state of Georgia where Against All Odds Harris has gained ground back against Trump for some reason Trump was up 0.6% on average now Harris is up 0.5% on average it's another state where I've seen numbers going all over the place I've seen Trump winning by 45% you seen Harris winning by 4 or five% it's a spot where again we have no idea what's actually going on because in polling you really want to see consistent results to understand if something is actually happening but we're seeing the complete lack of that we're seeing very inconsistent results from very reputable posters so I don't know what's going on in Georgia I can tell you just from living here it does feel like Harris has way more momentum than Trump but I live in Atlanta so I may just be feeling the very Progressive Atlanta Vibes whereas out in the you know middle of nowhere might be a little bit different and last we go to North Carolina where Trump has regained his lead at 0.44% but Harris had a 0.1% lead last week the difference is marginal it's a half percentage point it's very on par with some of the other movement we've seen in other states I think in the end it's the RFK effect to a certain degree but North Carolina is another one where we're seeing tremendous fluctuation in who is winning in polls I've seen Harris plus three plus4 I've seen Trump plus three plus4 so we're Landing somewhere in the middle it's just too early to tell in these states where you're seeing fluctuative polling we need to see more consistent polling and I think after the debate we're see a lot more clarity on who's actually ahead in this race so if all these results held firm we would have the exact same outcome as 2020 with Harris carrying all the states that Biden carried and carrying all the states that he carried back in 2020 I do think this is a very realistic outcome of the race but again because we're so unclear in States like Nevada and Arizona and Georgia North Carolina I don't really know how it's going to go I feel pretty confident about these Rust Belt states being Harris states that Trump really needs to gain ground back to win but I don't really know what's going on in the South and I don't really know what's going on in the Sun Belt so I think we have a long way to go and the debate is unquestionably the most consequential moment in this election if Harris comes out and just absolutely destroys Trump she will gain ground in all these states and likely win the election whereas if Trump has a good debate and Harris looks a little flat Trump could retake the lead in a number of these states and really reset the election so everybody's got to tune into the debate on the 10th because that is going to be the big moment that's going to reshape how a lot of these polls are looking