SEC Game of the Week: Mississippi State at LSU. Stats, Key Players, Odds, Predictions.

[Music] it's great to be in the SEC welcome to the SEC recap podcast I'm your host Ben Warren you can find me on Twitter at SEC recap if you love all things southeastern conference SEC recap is where you want to be so please like subscribe get notified when new episodes drop each week this is our game of the week episode Mississippi State taking on LSU in Baton Rouge by the way you can check out the accompanying article on my medium page sc- recap. medium.com those links are available on my Twitter as well welcome in the matchup Mississippi State Bulldogs going into Baton ruse to face the LSU Tigers this Saturday evening with a 5:00 pm central time kickoff Bulldog sitting at 2 and0 remain undefeated through two games collecting a nice Road win at Arizona last Saturday while the LSU Tigers bounced back after a disappointing week one performance managing a 65- 17 victory over the Southern Jaguars last week Bulldogs are in year three under Mike Leech with Will Will Rogers at QB and LSU is in year one under Brian Kelly uh with Arizona State transfer Jaden Daniels starting at quarterback LSU has won seven of the last 10 meetings but lost the last matchup in Baton Rouge back in 2020 and every game in Baton Rouge except for 2020 uh again this is over the last five times they've played there has been a 6 PM kickoff so these teams are accustomed to playing under the lights in both stadiums uh however this will be the first contest between head coaches Mike Leech and Brian Kelly so let's take a look at the stats on offense Mississippi State sitting at number 22 in the country in terms of total offense Bulldogs are averaging 44 points per game 4862 yards of total offense 6.2 yards of play they also average 39 minutes just a little better than 39 minutes in time of possession in their passing game they're putting up 385 yards and four and a half touchdowns a game while on the Run side 101.5 yards and one and a half touchdowns now remember this is the Air Raid Offense so uh in that style of play you're always going to see uh the offensive balance lean toward the pass at LSU they're sitting at number 21 in the country in terms of total offense the tigers are averaging 44 points per game 449 yards of total offense 6.7 yards a play they average 282 minutes in the time of possession battle on the passing side for the Tigers they're they're putting up about 2642 yards 2 and a half touchdowns a game on the Run side 842 yards and three touchdowns so a little bit more balanced in the LSU offense than the Mississippi State and on the defensive side uh the Bulldogs are number 49 in the country in Total Defense uh averaging about 20 points allowed 305 yards and two turnovers passing defense allowing 220 and a half yards one touchdown while run defense is pretty good so far 842 yards yards uh and one and a half touchdowns LSU number 54 defense in the country Tigers allowing an average of 20 and a half points per game 327 yards and three turnovers pass defense allowing 160.5 and a touchdown run defense so far 166 and a half uh and one in half touchdown so again LSU looking a little bit more balanced on the defensive side as well but take that with a the grain of salt uh while they're very similar in terms of offensive and defensive production neither team is ranked and really only LSU has played what we consider a comparable matchup uh in Florida State through two weeks Mississippi state has played Memphis and Arizona which are back 50 offenses and defenses we're talking ranked in the 80s and 90s overall uh so they'll face a lot stiffer competition in LSU particularly in Baton Rouge now LSU did play Florida State in their week one but they played Southern in week two and you just can't learn a lot from that game FSU was number 33 uh in overall Defense number 55 in overall offense Southern is an FCS team that went four- seven last year so while that FSU matchup was uh tougher than I think either of the teams Mississippi state has faced uh the Bulldogs will be a bit more of a challenge than uh either FSU or Southern so they're pretty closely matched in the stats what's going to be the difference in this ball game well let's talk key players for Mississippi State that's 100% going to be quarterback Will Rogers he's the SEC passing leader he's got 763 passing yards so far in the season 78.5% completion rate two interceptions three sacks remember some of those sacks are going to be on the offensive line uh also for Mississippi State I think wide receiver Caleb ducking he he does have fewer receiving yards than teammate raat Thomas but ducking has proven to be a TD threat with three so far on the year and then on the defensive side linebacker jet Johnson he's currently tied for fourth among SEC Defensive leaders 20 tackles including 12 solo tackles on the LSU side certainly going to be quarterback Jaden Daniels uh he's got 346 passing yards on the year he's got a 77.7 completion percent zero interceptions although that line has allowed five sacks on Daniels Jane Daniels also an SEC top 10 rusher he's one of only three quarterbacks uh among Mike Wright Vanderbilt and KJ Jefferson of Arkansas he's got 132 yards on the ground averaging 6.95 a carry and a rushing touchdown alongside him I'm G to say wide receiver Malik neighbors he's proven to be the most productive white out through two games uh even after a disappointing week one performance they got him involved in week two and I think they're going to need a big game from him uh to to come on top uh come out on top of this matchup against the Bulldogs we know the Bulldogs are going to throw it that's what that offense is that's what they do I think LSU is going to need good wide receiver play and neighbors should Factor heavily into that so what it comes down to questions for me can LSU defend leech's offense operated by an experienced quarterback in Will Rogers their raids a no huddle pretty fast tempo offense it doesn't move as fast as I think all miss or Tennessee but it stretches defenses horizontally and vertically it's designed for the quarterback to get the ball out quickly you're going to see four or five eligible receivers uh out on every single play uh the way they spread their linebackers it takes defensive ends longer to get to the quarterback and again Will Rogers is going to be getting that ball out fast so the LSU defense is going to have to be mentally and physically prepared for the tempo it's tough to prepare for uh with just a week of preparation and I think most importantly they're going to have to get off field on third Downs because uh at at the tempo that that offense plays at as much as they're going to stretch the defenses the LSU defense is going to want to get off on third down and get some rest uh for Mississippi State can they contain Jaden Daniels to the pocket uh the run defense has been pretty good and Daniels is right now the top rusher for LSU so if they can take that aspect of the game away it's going to make it much harder for LSU and they're going to have to compete through the air we know Mississippi State can score points there's no doubt about that what will their defense do against by far the most talented quarterback they faced this season season so let's look at the odds the ESPN fpi index uh has LSU favorite at 56.6% I think there's probably some home field advantage baked into that the spread has Mississippi State at minus two and a half and I like the Bulldogs to win in this matchup in a close one I think they'll win it by three or four so I'd lay the points on that two and a half um it like I said it I do expect it to be close but this is a Miss Mississippi State team that's in year three under Mike Leech they've got an experienced quarterback they've got good receivers I think they finally have a legitimate defense um even though they're playing in Baton Rouge I think my Edge is going to go to the Bulldogs over under is at 53 and a half at the time I'm recording this that's down from a high of 55 uh and in the last five matchups between these teams in Baton Rouge average point total has been 52 so I'm leaning toward taking the under on that 53 and a half couple props Bulldogs team total points are 28 and I think that's about right LSU team total points is 25.2 I'm leaning toward the under since I favor the under on the combined point total final prediction I think the Bulldogs are a bit underrated for what they're capable of LSU has a lot of talent but we didn't see it come together in a big game against FSU in what was essentially a home game in New Orleans it could happen this weekend but until then I have to go with what I've seen Bulldogs have more experience running their offense than LSU does running its offense or defense so I'm taking Mississippi State 27 LSU 24 that's going to do it for this show if you enjoyed this game of the week episode please give a follow on Twitter at SEC recap like subscribe get notified for new episodes each and every week if you'd like to support the show to help keep it ad free anchor.fm recap there's a link in this podcast description I appreciate all of you listening have a good week a great weekend and as always it's great to be in the SEC