analysis of 2024 polling in previous elections involving Donald Trump suggests race is still too close to call National polls for the US presidential race have been upended ever since kamla Harris took over from Joe Biden to run against Donald Trump while Biden was trailing the Republican former president nationally and in many crucial swing States Harris has gained about three points in National polls since becoming the nominee it now has Harris leading nationally by about two points Clinton lost the 2016 election despite winning more votes than Trump because of the electoral system by which the president is elected the US presidential election is decided by races in individual states that have a set number of electoral College votes this means the race is decided by a handful of Swing states such as Pennsylvania Arizona and Georgia looking at data from Real Clear Politics Harris has managed to at least close the gap on if not overtake Trump in the swing States this is especially evident in Georgia and Arizona where har has gained more than four points since Biden dropped out of the race sitting ahead of Trump by a couple of points nationally is not enough to give Harris a secure lead in any of the Swing States Trump and Harris are still within two points of each other in seven swing States well within the margin of error for polls Christopher borck a professor of political science and director of the mullenberg college Institute of public opinion said this was key we're talking about a few points either way being critical in this election while this article analyzes the latest polling average figures from Real Clear Politics other polling averages from Silver bulletin and 538 are giving Harris slightly larger leads in Michigan Georgia Nevada Pennsylvania and Wisconsin there were several reasons for this a lot of people made up their minds quite late in those campaigns many Trump voters did not tell polling companies who they were supporting and also methodological errors led to a fundamental underestimation of Trump's support it leaves the election on a knife edge with the Dem Democrats forecast to win 226 Electoral College votes and the Republicans 219 should these states vote as predicted Harris would only need to hold three of the Biden backing swing States Michigan Pennsylvania and Wisconsin to win with 270 Electoral College voters Trump on the other hand would need to flip at least two states from the Democrats to win this leaves 93 Electoral College votes as too close to call and uncertainty about whether polling still could be underestimating Trump support so while Harris can be pleased with the momentum her campaign has enjoyed over the last month the election is still too close to call this article was amended on the 4th of September 2024 to clarify that kamla Harris would need to hold Michigan Pennsylvania and Wisconsin to win 270 Electoral College votes