with the first and possibly only debate between Trump and Harris down behind us it's time to dive into the latest polls Trump has been gaining serious momentum and these numbers could reshape the race so let's break down where things stand I want to get right into it so I'll start by marking the safe States for both candidates these are the states that aren't expected to be very competitive like Wyoming which Trump won by over 43% and California where Biden secured his victory by more than 29% this also includes districts where we have limited polling information available as well for Trump we have the second district of Maine West Virginia Ohio Indiana Kentucky Tennessee South Carolina Alabama Mississippi Louisiana Arkansas Missouri Iowa North and South Dakota Nebraska at large and the first and third districts Kansas Oklahoma Montana Idaho Utah and Alaska for Harris we have the states of Washington Colorado Hawaii Illinois Maine at large and the first district New York Vermont Connecticut Delaware Massachusetts Rhode Island Maryland and the District of Colombia so let's start over on the west coast with Oregon the first poll between Harris and Trump delivered a surprising result Harris is ahead by just five points in both surveys if this trend holds through to election day it would Mark a dramatic drop from Biden's 16-point win in the last election the last time a republican came close to flipping Oregon was over 24 years ago if Trump makes Oregon competitive or turns it red it would be a historic achievement I'm going to list out the margins at the top of the screen but we have safe States likely lean and tilt so the five-point lead makes Oregon a lean blue state for Harris next up is Nevada the latest survey shows Nevada to be highly competitive with Trump now leading Harris by one point although Biden won the state by just over 2% in the last election Trump is focused on Flipping this key Battle Ground red in November Harris meanwhile is clinging to an overall lead of just 0.6% making Nevada a blue tilt state for now now before we continue giving this video a like would be greatly appreciated and consider subscribing as only 2% of you have done so we're really close to our big goal and this helps to support independent election analysis so thank you very much now let's turn to Arizona where Trump held a commanding 10-point lead over Biden before he dropped out in the most recent poll Trump and Harris are tied but Trump has led in five of the last eight surveys showing consistent strength in the state Trump has since widened his lead to 1.6% positioning Arizona as a true Battleground Harris will have to work hard to keep Trump from flipping the state back to red but with Trump already holding an edge Arizona is leaning in his favor this slim margin currently tilts Arizona red to Trump heading over to New Mexico the latest poll has Harris leading by 10 points now this is a notable Improvement for Harris from some previous surveys where Biden LED Trump by just one point many analysts are predicting that New Mexico could emerge as a surprise Battleground for now it Remains the lean state for Harris next we move to Texas where the latest poll shows Trump leading Harris by four points in the last election Trump secured Texas by a 3% margin and continues to lead in all recent surveys currently Trump holds an overall lead of 7.3% keeping Texas in the lean red category at least until more polls between Harris and Trump come in for now Texas remains a stronghold for Trump and Nebraska's second district although polling data is limited this district has leaned Democratic in recent elections without many direct polls between Harris and Trump it's likely that Nebraska's second will continue its Trend and lean toward Harris so this will be a blue tilt state for now sliding over to Minnesota kamla Harris initially shocked many with a 10-point lead over Donald Trump in their initial head-to-head poll which was very unexpected expected as Biden never held such a margin this year the latest poll numbers show Harris ahead by just five points in this deep blue State this Advantage positions Minnesota as a lean state for Harris now on over to Wisconsin where the race between Harris and Trump is Razor thin the latest survey shows Harris leading Trump by Four Points Trump's previous 2.3% advantage over Biden has narrowed since Biden dropped out and Harris took his place we're predicting Wisconsin will ultimately tilt red for Trump given the state's recent Trends next up is Michigan where another close contest is unfolding Harris leads Trump by one point in the most recent poll now this is a notable drop from her earlier leads of 11 and 12 points in two previous surveys some suggest Harris might be enjoying a honeymoon phase as a new candidate but only time's going to tell if this is true for now Michigan tilts blue in her favor as she has the 1.2% overall lead in the state heading east into New Hampshire Trump initially LED both Harris and Biden in early polling but Harris now pulled ahead by five points with 52% to Trump's 47% this margin makes New Hampshire a lean state for Harris over in New Jersey there aren't any Dr polls between Harris and Trump just yet Biden won the state by nearly 16% in the last election but surprisingly Trump is leading by one point point in the last survey based on the averages New Jersey will be a lean blue state for Harris now we've only got five states left to cover and it's a really close race between Trump and Harris but keep watching to see who's going to win these final States in Virginia Harris holds an eight-point lead over Trump but the state is becoming more competitive As Trump continues to gain ground recent surveys show a closer race between the two candidates however when averaging the polls Harris May maintains the 5% overall lead keeping Virginia in the lean blue category for now moving to North Carolina recent blls indicate a red herring Trend posing a challenge for Harris however the most recent survey shows Harris leading Trump by three points Democrats are working to turn North Carolina into a purple state so Harris needs to find a way to win over voters and close the gap Trump on the other hand must secure undecided and independent voters demain is overall lead of 0.1% in the state which currently tilts North Carolina red next on to Georgia Harris has been outperforming Biden making the peach state highly competitive once again in the latest survey Trump is ahead by three points against Harris Trump must solidify a support base while Harris needs to ramp up voter Outreach and appeal to undecided voters overall Trump leads by 0.3% a slim margin compared to his previous lead over Biden and this Advantage tilts Georgia red and Florida the most recent poll shows Trump leading Harris by three points this is notable because Trump previously LED Biden by as much as 13 points in Florida the latest survey suggests that Harris is performing better than Biden as Trump's lead has been decreasing in the polls now with Trump's average lead of 6% Florida is considered a lean Red State our final state is Pennsylvania where both candidates are current C ly tied in the latest poll highlighting just how competitive the race has actually become recent Trends and polling averages show a slight Edge for Trump pushing Pennsylvania into the red tilt category although this is a Battleground State Trump's momentum here could be decisive with such a narrow margin Pennsylvania will be one of the most critical states to watch in the election okay so now that we've got every state tallied we see that Trump has reached 270 which is the most important number in the Electoral College this would make Donald Trump the winner of the 2024 presidential election as always be sure to share your thoughts in the comments below and let me know who you believe won the debate between kamla Harris and Donald Trump and as always I really appreciate you watching if you enjoyed the video then consider giving it a like and subscribing for more reliable and consistent election information