2024 Election Status Check: John Heilemann and Peter Hamby on the Tumultuous Campaign Season

John highman Peter Hami you're among the most well sourced political reporters in the business I've had the fortune of uh covering campaigns with you guys I've had the fortune John of working for you a couple times uh and I want to say Peter I feel like we texted about this earlier in the cycle that we've gone from one of the elections that was one of the most boring one of the ones that we most dreaded covering in modern history to one of the most interesting ones starting at about 9:02 PM Eastern Time on June 27th is that a fair uh demarcation point I think that would be it and history will remember that as the demarcation point I mean you know yes 100% I it's like I mean I you know whatever it was the first like eight minutes of that thing was you know Peter and I talked about it that night on on a podcast but like but I think the most your thing is is the thing that's most that even you kind of lose track of because of how captivating the thing is now and you know we both have covered some pretty captivating elections you know 08 was pretty captiv there have been pry some pretty amazing elections I never seen anything like this in my in my career but like it really sucked before that it wasn't like just like kind of like boring like the way Romney Obama was boring it was like it was horrible I mean it was a horrible horrible thing I went out even the circus we had ended and I was kind of like I am I not gonna go to Iowa New Hampshire South Carolina I can see a justification for it there is no real competition the Trump thing is a fake competition there there's no competition on the Biden side maybe I should stay home and my heart was like God it'll be a long time since I it be I can't remember the last time I missed those contests in a primary season dude John was the same way like mosha and I racked up so many Marriott Gold points in Iowa and South Carolina is my baby my baby my home state like I didn't go out for caucus night like you John you went to the Republican convention I was like pass but I ended up but I ended up going I ended up going I'll tell you like it was like weird because Morning Joe said go ahead and make a couple like do a couple packages at each one so I went out there and I just for like three days at each place and I was just I mean it was so depressing I mean it wasn't just like it was not a great race it was just like it was it was it was the acquiescent election no one was excited like it wasn't like you even the Trump people weren't surprised Trump was doing like one event in South Carolina because he could fill an arena if he only did one event for the week but if he showed up more than once the crowds were going to suck because two-thirds of the people even the most Ardent political people two-thirds of the people in both parties were had kind of acquiesced to the notion that they were gonna get stuck with Biden and Trump and there was no stopping it but no one was enthused about it and they it was the most dultery depressing heirless drames featureless just a slog and even I was just three days at each one of those places I was like I'm glad we're not making the circus because this would be a nightmare and now well the past six weeks it's been six weeks now since June 27th and you you know even even if you put the sorcin writers room back together or any sort of writers room in Hollywood you know you you would watch that and be like well that's not believable like that's that's too much but John and I are like adding some color and some colorful adjectives to this but there's also like the quants and the data people keep coming out with these polls in recent weeks that show you know since Biden dropped out comma gaining nationally in the States among key subgroups and not even getting back in some cases to where she might need to be with 20120 is the Baseline so the race is still close but it's interesting listening to pollsters and reading some of their memos in recent weeks where they're like before Biden was in the race and these are democratic pollsters we were like the race sorry before Biden left the race Democratic pollsters would be like if you squint really hard you can see these movements and last week Mo Eis uh which is a a democratic firm that measures uh you know the Latino vote um their pollster Carlos Odio put out a memo and he had this line in there that I thought was like really nice and candid for a partisan Democrat and he said in our polling the cycle as in public polls we saw results that occasionally made us question what was actual movement in the electorate what were merely expressions of discontent and what were polling errors immune to adjustment for example can Donald Trump win a majority of Latinos under 30 that was such a Hall of Mirrors that scenario can now be ruled out with a high degree of confidence in other words like the polling was just so incremental You' see movements this way and that way the Biden White House was like this is a this will be a choice in the end and even though people don't like either candidate they'll come home from Biden that was their optimistic case and now that you see with KL Harris and the race actual movement in the polls Democrats like oh holy back before July like we were cooked at least that's the vibe I'll I'll tell you I went to a um I went to a a basketball game in uh in NBA season sto must have been March okay march with two um uh senior uh Obama Campaign people veterans from both the 08 and 12 races and it was right around the time Ezra Klein was writing about um how Biden needed to step out and that that you should do an open convention and you know um and that was a lot of talk out there it was fantasy it was fantasy at that point it was and and and Lawrence O'Donnell had gone on on MSNBC and lat all the reasons why this was a disastrous idea it would never work it could never happen it would be horrible and one of the things was you know Chicago you know there's all these reasons Chicago that not just the 68 memories but how the mayor is now and it will be chaos there etc etc and I was sitting there with these two gentlemen from from Obama 8 and Obama 12 and I said uh uh who are serious consumers of political data let's put it that way and I said uh I said oh this e client thing I mean like it's just so ludicrous like it's never going to happen and it would be a disaster if it did and both of them turned to me and were like yeah it would be courting disaster and we would be better if we had that than what we currently have like I would be willing I would be willing to roll in dice on that and they were and they were saying it you know because they had come to the conclusion by March that Biden had some I mean I pressed a little bit and they were like yeah he's one and three chance of winning but like one and three is you know I don't want to run against Donald Trump with one and three and it's never going to get better than that Biden's going to get worse old people don't get better he's going to get worse and it's going to get it's going to be we're g be further Out Of Reach and they were not even beginning to forecast you know but that was March where they were people at that level of sophistication were kind of saying we could easily be down to a one in four likelihood by the time we get to October and that's just not a risk you want to take and I'd rather take some risk on the convention rooll the dice with gret Whitmer or or k Harris than than with someone who's going to be who can run as a generic Democrat because a generic Democrat against Trump is you know a 5050 maybe a little bit worse um but with Biden locked in at like a one in four chance we're doomed um and that that's that far back so so there's I mean I hear this a lot from people online uh and you know I I dismiss it but the idea that Democrats top Democrats knowing this to what extent was that part of their calculus in the early June in scheduling the early June debate that they knew that they were playing with fire here with Biden and this would give them that opportunity is there any Merit to that there's toal total Merit to that I think there were two things they were thinking when they scheduled that debate one thing was they knew they were losing and that they needed to change the dynamic of the race this has been widely said everywhere that they were like if the race is about Biden we're going to lose or we have a very high probability of losing we need to change the dynamic of the race at an early will do that and then secondly they would say not about Biden dropping out but their thing was if he up it'll give us time to recover and and they so they were aware of the possibility that Biden would have a bad debate no one was speculating about this scenario in the in the Biden campaign they were not anywhere they think it would ever be this bad no and they and they didn't think that this I mean I think there's still some of them on the campaign now who don't believe that this actually happened like like the idea this would happen it was inconceivable and not wrong I mean I you know this per reasonable to think this could it's funny too cuz the to the extent there were the B the Biden people dismissed them as Elite white male podcasters but you know to the extent there were people who were uh including some of our mutual friends uh calling for Biden to step out of the race you know they were suddenly grateful the debate was there you know they like re they woke up and realized holy we have an opportunity here and it's a tight window but we've got a month and in hindsight just one of the flukes and best things that could have happened to the Democratic party was that Mark Thompson wrote a note and invited Trump and Biden to an early debate for CNN and they both said yes talk to me about uh the coverage of Biden the last couple years the idea out there that he was insulated protected in some ways by the media obviously there have been some people who've been you know very out there Alex Thompson of axio and others they were talking about his age talking about his issues uh Monday Morning Quarterback the the media coverage the past few years did the media not push back hard enough um on the fact that Biden was doing the least amount of news conferences in history um would did he get away with something that a Republican president would not have gotten away with uh how how much is the media at fault here for the the shock that we all experienced on June 27th Peter loves being a media critic that's why I'm gonna let him go no I well most you have this like really direct relationship with your readers and your followers and your listeners and like I do too do that's one of the benefits of what I do at Snapchat and what you do on IG but also other platforms um and yeah know I think the people that follow us are what political experts would call like low information voters or low propensity voters uh you know people who AR aren't aren't reading Alex Thompson and axio every day and aren't reading Politico well and and and I would argue I have an audience of people that are very plugged into politics but they're not that plugged in right they're not like obsesses totally not like totally obsessives that's why they come to you to help sort of make sense of all this stuff I I know John just said like to be a media critic this is one thing where I actually kind of disagree with that like larger narrative that the media was hiding Joe Biden I mean one we have to break out the different buckets here like the White House Press Corp like they're in there every day they have a job to do like they you know it sounds crass but you have to balance like your stories with your sourcing and you know you have to pick and CH yeah pick and choose your moments and like Peter Ducey at Fox was certainly like not afraid every day to like ask some of these questions in in the briefings and you know ask these questions uh of Biden when he's walking to Marine One you know on the south lawn or whatever um but I do think it was pretty apparent to everybody before Biden dropped out before he took the stage like it's the number one thing I would hear about from readers and people who aren't inside the Beltway like whenever I traveled or just even in La like Biden's really old it's like the number one thing in every word cloud and every focus group is the number one concern in every poll like the idea that this was like somehow a secret is actually just not true um I do think that like the tone of the relationship and the conversation between the press and the Biden White House shifted aggressively after the debate and they uh sorry sorry reporters felt that you know the White House Press shop was not being more forthcoming about Biden's um health issues or visits with doctors and you know you start to hear them ask about that stuff more and more and more um but they're still they had those lines for months being like you need to see Joe Biden behind the scenes Jo that's sort of like if anyone like credulous credulously pared those lines and their stories like sure I just don't really remember a lot of reporters in over it and there were some reporters like Alex isn't is one there's other reporters I won't name who sort of like felt like they were taking a Victory lap saying we've been talking about how Biden's old this whole time but like so is everyone on the planet I don't know John do you have a different opinion I have so many opinions about this um I I'll try to restrict them some the fir I'll try to restrict them to a reasonable number the first thing I I totally agree with Peter about the first thing the first poll that showed that Biden's age was a signif problem came out in October of 2021 eight months since the administration I've never seen a presidential Administration where a pollster would have asked the question about a first term incumbent eight months in is do you want this person to be is this person fit to be president it's not a question you ever put on the survey that early and and that poll showed that at almost I think about half of Democrats in October of 2021 already were saying Biden was too old to to serve a second term it was in every poll EV for from then on it never changed it only got worse and and over the course of that almost three years and this is just a Peter's point the public was not missing it's not like there's a cover up here where the American people had no idea that joa Biden was having some some cognitive difficulties or didn't move very well you can criticize in individual mainstream media reporters for not pushing harder on some of the things you said MOS I think you know I'm always think that the mainstream media should push for more access more interviews more direct direct things with the with the white house I'll say something about that something else about that in a second but it's not like the people of America Were Somehow systematically deprived of information because they were telling pollsters over and over again Democrats and Republicans Republicans saying he was scile Democrats saying he was just too old but they all you know it was all there and and there was plenty of reporting about that what what there wasn't was as much of a kind of sharp questioning of why are you Democrats knowing that this is a this is the thing that's holding Joe Biden down why are you sticking with him why are you not primering him what do they why are you are you not acting like a political party who who says hey you said you were going to be a transitional president by the way and like it'd be a good idea after the midterms in 22 to to to to let to to pass the torch why did the Democratic party not do that why did reporters not get more focused on that that's that's a reasonable question but it's not like it's more of an indictment than the Democratic party and Leadership that they waited so long uh and were keeping their fingers crossed versus the media here I think that's one thing and then I would say this also about the about the pre like the Biden campaign the Biden people in the White House were very you know if you step out of line I don't cover that on a day-to-day basis I'm not one of those people neither is Peter neither are you who in the White House Press office every day and gets your ass kicked uh and gets frozen out if you uh if they if they're if they are playing that retribution game which they were with a lot of people and they and they aggressively uh tamped down coverage and fought really hard against coverage of these issues related to his age and and potential infirmity and and that's their right to do that and it's our job to to fight that but I will say you know when people look back now and say Joe Biden has done the fewest inperson interviews of the president you know Tut Tut Tut with him look at Donald Trump did a lot more interviews were they helpful in any way like like it it hearkens back to an old world where like a sit down interview was a meaningful exchange of views and you look back and forth between a reporter and a president Trump is another way in which Trump up everything in a lot of ways in terms of our standards which is that like the Biden White House was their attitude was well we're going to do fewer of these interviews but like are you really citing Donald Trump as the standard because those interviews were edifying because they were good for democracy because so he sat there and did more interviews but he lied more constantly and you guys didn't call it's like it's it's a weird it's there he should have done more interviews there should have been more access but it's a kind of a sign of the times of where we are now that that's a really good standard is not like it's not the thing anymore like where if if if the point of the interview is accountability Trump wrecked that standard and I would like to get back to it but the Biden people had kind of an attitude which was Joe Biden will at least answer your questions truthfully he'll do fewer interviews to Donald Trump but he'll your questions answer your questions truthfully what do you want more interviews with a pathological liar that's what we were getting before so like what's the standard here why is that the yard stick anyway I think there's a lot of other things to say too but there there's there's a lot uh and then there's these other questions I think that go to some of the things get much more acute the questions of how much lying was done by the White House how much willful blindness was there on the part of democratic donors and other people in the party how much should reporters miss the signals because Biden's condition did get worse in a pretty dramatic way I would say in the last six or so months that he was in office and that happens that age and increasingly it sounded like the White House protecting Biden from even other members of the staff that even people in the White House were being not even the media like people with a pass who are walking around the West Wing don't have access to them right so these questions have to in way just as I'll stop now but just to Peter's point you have to kind of unpack them because there really is a different set of questions in in December of 2021 versus in in April of 2024 I mean and everybody who knows octogenarians knows that they don't decline in a in a linear you know way they do day step functions and And the fact I think for a lot of people who have spent a lot of time with Biden some of the reason why donors were so shocked in the in the spring of this year was that they had seen him in the fall and summer a year earlier and that he was radically different from their point of view like up close in their houses like going to donor events you know he wasn't on prompter a year earlier at a small donor event and and that struck me as shocking fundraising event people who are donating money to you love you and they're putting the Pres on a teleprompter with a prepared speech which is that's typically an ad 15 for 15 minutes of remarks not just for a speech just like hey say everybody thank you for your checks have a nice dinner he's he's in the living room of someone's home and he's he's giving a a formal it's something that struck me too also at the NATO Summit or just before that he's doing these you know things with world leaders where they bring in the cameras for two minutes before the the private meeting happens and he's reading off a note card for what is typically a 90 second hey guys you know I love the UK well that that John said a couple things I really agree with to get to that NATO Summit I was just going to talk about that one is the you know the Washington press Corp and the White House Press Corp they are younger and more digitally Savvy but like institutionally they have different standard around what they expect from a president it's like you have to do the sit down do the edboard with the New York Times do the interview with World News Tonight um one half the time like not only will there not be a meaningful exchange of ideas the first thing and the main thing that they're going to ask and then tweet out on social media whether you're CBS News or NBC news or CNN there are concerns about your age sir right so like you're they're just going to ask about sort of style over substance one but two like beginning really with Obama then Trump now Biden like they don't as as Biden himself is old school and watches you know watches Morning Joe and reads uh you know uh the New York Times oped page the White House wanted to just put him in safer positions and they can they don't need to go to the mainstream press anymore they can do sort of you know friendly digital interviews they can put them on Jay Leno and have them drive around cars they can bring influencers into the White House so there's that but John said something too like but it's very clear looking at videos from Biden even in 2021 and 2022 that he was more Lucid quick on his on his feet like seemed like he had a sharper mind he looked a little younger even that's not to mention him in 2020 and even in that debate with Paul Ryan in 2012 and so there could have been something where oh you know something to watch actually is is the two hours uh that he did with the New York Times edboard which the video is fully up yeah and he's taking it from like 15 New York Times editors and responding and you're like oh my God who is this guy so if you're you're sitting what0 2020 during those times so like if you're the debates against look at the debates against Trump in 2020 that first debate against Trump versus this debate you can say that it's not that hard to figure out right so if he let's say to the extent there is quote unquote decline whatever that means old age like any health issue any any like you know neurologist doctor visit issue um that stuff happened in a very short period of six to eight months and like if you're sitting in the white house as a press person like you know it's like my my parents and I here in Richmond just went out and bought a new TV they've had the same TV for five years you look at the TV you've had for four or five years it looks the same all of a sudden you put up a new TV you're like holy this looks way different like if you're just sitting there watching this and over the course of six months like maybe it seems a little something seems a little different you might not like call it out as much whereas people out there in the world were seeing these videos and these clips and that brings me back to the NATO Summit and what I said earlier how the tone and aggressiveness of the media coverage of VI Biden changed after the first debate like the New York Times came out with like this quintuple by line really well-reported story like they even put like David Sanger on it who covers like the foreign policy this diplomacy world like went back they called diplomats they like talked to like Georgia Maloney's AIDS in Italy and there were like there were moments when Biden seemed totally out of it and weird there was the um the concert at the White House that became a meme where Biden was sort of staring off into space they went back and interviewed people who sat next to him which suggests pretty high ranking people either elected officials or Aids who were saying yeah he something seemed off that day so people were in the Press were willing to be more aggressive about it once the dam broke and the entire world saw that first five to eight minutes of the debate there started to be like a real Rush of reporting that went back over the last six to eight months being like something has changed here and that's obviously one of the things that helped lead him to leave the race all right so he's left the race kamla Harris uh is it Peter your latest story is about the race Define her both her campaigns attempt to Define her and Republicans uh attempt to Define her there's uh some pulling out there some data out there to bring in which is what's most effective what's least effective um what what have they discovered so far internally and what do Republicans know about the keys to defeating her in the fall well some of this isn't even just polling stuff like it was pretty intuitive that the minute KL Harris became the nominee uh there were two maybe two and a half three ways to punch at her one you work for this guy Joe Biden who's unpopular his economy is unpopular that's your economy two everyone remembers the borders are memes and like how she you know sat down with Lester hold and said we have been to the border so like she was right borders are or not you had a role on the border and the Border has been a disaster Northern triangle immigration Etc just the the the the notion hazy as it is there's something to do with border security was a knock on her and by the way that issue always favors Republicans and it did before Kam became the nominee Biden was losing on that issue and then there were sort of like the the third bucket which was the sort of cackling radical socialist from Oakland who wants to empty the prisons and all that which is Tethered to all the liberal positions she staked out when she ran for president in 2020 so those were like the hits um and you know I talked to blueprint which is sort of an independent Democratic firm that's funded by Reed Hoffman's billionaire Dem rtic donor and they're sort of doing a lot of message testing the cycle um and you know I don't know if the Biden campaign likes them or not I have a hunch that're kind of annoyed by them but they put out these polls to sort of suggest uh the Democratic nominees should or shouldn't be talking about this here's some messaging here's how to better reach young people Etc they found that the the KLA Harris's biggest vulnerability is the immigration bucket that she's weak on border security tying that to crime and instability they found that to be the most Salient issue not just with all registered voters but with independent voters in particular followed by uh prices in the economy followed by San Francisco radical um I will say one of many reasons Harris has been so Adept at this moment is she understood this initially and they've been really Nimble way more Nimble than they were with Biden at the top of the ticket they came out immediately their first well second paid media ad they're positioning her as a border security har from a border state who's like going to you know arrest the Border gangs and uh stop the flow of fenol and she sided with Biden to to push this uh you know border Crackdown bill that Republicans rejected take your biggest vulnerability take your biggest vulnerability and go on offense with it totally yeah address it and like the thing that they're figuring out right now I think as we record this and they might have come out with paid media around this uh in the intervening days when people are hearing this podcast it is how to talk about the economy and prices which remain up since the pandemic uh that's hard thing to fix even if inflation is coming down and other economic indicators are heading in the right direction people still feel the pain of interest rates they still feel the pain of high groceries high rent prices cost of healthcare Etc so you know they did put out an ad a couple days ago about uh flicking at this biographical detail which I actually wasn't aware of that KLA Harris used to work at McDonald's when she was in college and they put that into their ad son of a working mom who didn't own a house until she was in high school like very interesting contrast with with Donald Trump and I think you'll continue to see more of that but you know I do think that the prices uh are going to continue to be whatever smart Republican people say that's the way to run against her uh at the same time we continue to hear uh a range of uh attacks against her which suggests that Trump or his allies haven't really settled on a message against the quote unquote Dei candidate or radical socialist and Trump is even calling her beautiful looking just like like Melania so like there's a whole whole mess of messaging out there that uh suggests for Hogans haven't quite figured it out yet John it felt like for a while that Donald Trump ran one of the most disciplined campaigns of his life and uh I we're gring on a curve obviously but that it felt like um he for a while I think even some people in the media were like oh wow you know they they seem to really have their act together team Trump right now um and then July 21st happens Biden drops out and it feels like he's been sort of lost since then that's a very kind way of putting it lost uh I mean I think that um to S this this makes a very good transition out of what Peter just said there is a she she kamla Harris has uh uh a mixed one of the thing questions people always had about her is what is her political True North like what is her actual political identity I've known her since 1999 and and she was a relatively tough on crime da in San Francisco she was not a she was not part in San Francisco where I lived at that time was not she was not seen as as the radical left by San Francisco terms and this was what she ran away from as president was was kamla as a cop right the the left was going to paint her as being uh on the side of the of the pigs of the man and so she aband social justice warriors were ascended she she abandon or they they seem to be ascendant um as they turned out Joe Biden won the presidential nomination by running exactly against that to his credit they see they were certainly ascendant online and so she ran against the most obvious thing that as she introduced herself to the country you know a prosecutor uh comma for the people which was her thing from day one and then they got scared of that because they thought she was gonna get uh she was not she had to run further to the left now what actually she she does or doesn't believe about some of these things is a is an open question and and but she is she has a bunch of positions she took in 20 20 that are way to the left of of of what's tolerable among the subset of Voters that are going to decide the election in in the center of the electorate in Battleground states there you know and there are a lot of the ones that Peter pointed out she's run away from now she says she's no longer in favor of single P Health col she's no longer in favor of uh driver's licenses for for undocumented workers she's for she co-sponsored the single player Healthcare bill with Bernie Sanders in the Senate I mean she took every she took every she the num show she's the second most liberal senator be Beyond and she was more liberal than than that because she took positions that she would never have had to vote on the United States Senate in in positioning herself for the 2020 race that was a bad political calculation but but I think the open question to a lot of people is well which of those things she's running away from all of them now so here's my my only point about this is all that collection of things that made her and they are all they touch on um I mean other than Biden economy which I actually think she's she's not it's going to be hard to make her own yeah she's not getting voters are giving her the benefit of the doubt on that stuff which is immigration immigration but she's nobody sees it partly because nobody knows who she is and knows what she does the administration know as was the case with most vice presidents but the Border thing is a problem because whatever you call the title she was supposed to be like kind of having an instrumental role in at the border and that is a thing you can hang around her neck which is why that's a more effective hit um but here and this is a campaign that Chris levita Trump's co- campaign manager ran for has run for a hundred Republican candidates and for and ran it for John for for George W bush helped run it for George W Bush in 2004 against John krey which is find a Democrat who can be painted as extreme to the left outside the mainstream pin that on them when they try to run away from it make them into a flip flopper and when you make them into a flip flopper you're really calling them a phony and that's why this this this Kamala Cameleon thing is a real is a real thing now I'm not saying it's a winning thing but it's a it's a standard playbook for Republicans it's not just you paint them as too far to the left it's that when they try to run away from that you are able to say this person doesn't believe anything this person is not an authenticity as you guys both know especially my younger voters but all voters like once you make someone into a phony and they're they're totally inauthentic they're doomed that's the mouse trap that Republican consultants and smart Republicans want the Trump campaign to run and want Donald Trump to run they have one problem Donald Trump and and Donald Trump is not to date not only has he not embraced that campaign he has embraced no campaign he's run nine different campaigns against her he's got three different nicknames he's got three seven different arguments and all of his own Grievances and all of his own insane lunatic I mean lunatic ramblings there's not a republican in their right mind in the country who didn't look at that true social post where he said that she was using AI to fake her rallies and didn't think he might have cracked he might be broken because I think he actually believes it it's not just he's just by misinformation I think Trump there's a reasonable chance that Trump is way more cognitively infirmed than Biden ever was and we're starting to see it under the strain of you know old people are not great at adapting to change he was very comfortable he was like I was watching one of his rallies a couple days ago and he's talking still more about Biden than Harris and yes about B and he's he's saying again in the Realm of the lunatic Joe Biden's going to come back in stage a coup at the convention it's like John Stewart the other night was like dude he's not coming back it's like he's Trump is you know Trump is now the old guy in the race and all and he's had issues both uh psychological emotional spiritual but more importantly cognitive for a while it's like you know the confusing of Willie BR of of potentially the confusing of of Jerry Brown with Willie Brown is just the same thing as the confusion of Nikki Haley Birdbrain Nikki Haley with crazy Nancy Pelosi in the primary he's been slipping for a long time no one wanted to pay attention to it because Biden had SL would would make slips and he looked frailer so we looked atur we looked at thatl screen we looked at that split screen we focused on Biden now the split screen is here's young K Harrison young Tim Walls in their in their late 50s early 60s and Trump looks what what he really was even before he looks really old he looks really confused he looks you know all and unfocused undisciplined unmanageable and on top of that he seems to be getting worse in the face of like this radical change that's a change for all of us we're all like freaked out by what has happened the last six weeks can you imagine if you were 80 years old and you were like you've been running for president for a couple years been built your whole life around the notion that Joe Biden was going to be your you're going to be your your your your opponent to a blowout yeah and all of a sudden there's this black woman who you're not super comfortable with women or with black women especially who suddenly surging he's befuddled like in a profound way and and and I say all that not just to beat him up but to say the following you can't run the Playbook of a smart campaign when you're have a a candidate who's a singular As Trump he is his campaign Trump is you know he's been their greatest strength and their greatest weakness and right now they need him to suddenly be disciplined focused and he's as of now from the day that she became the day fact Dem NE he hasn't had a news cycle where he's behaved like a remotely disciplined or focused candidate he's been a nightmare and if he keeps doing that she's gonna roll over him he might he might find Focus but they can't run that campaign paid media is not going to solve their problem the focus is always going to be on Trump you can't the ads aren't going to help if Trump can't drive the message they won't make the argument if they don't make the argument she's going to roll to Victory and it's going to be a blowout potentially for haris the other thing that's changed with KL as the nominee it's like not just that she's surging kind of organically and I think one of the biggest things that we've noticed in polling is the quote unquote double haters who didn't like Biden or Trump have kind of gone away and like it was it was 20% of the electorate one out of five to the extent RFK was at like 10% as a third party he's now at like five k's winning the double haters like by like a 3 to1 or 4 to1 margin it's totally like those people are off the off the couch as they they don't know enough about her they don't enough about her to hate her right now and that's one of the things can Republicans make those people turn them back into double haters in some ways right so John this is why you're smarter than me and more veteran here I named like three attacks on kamla but like you just sort of like like bundled them all together and what I think is actually a compelling criticism of her the chameleon thing and I noticed that a few days ago when JD Vance who is you know being mocked and you know memd and whatever and his negatives are are are are not great but he he as an attack dog seems like he's able to throw a punch and deliver a message in a way that Trump isn't right now and he was asked on uh inside politics with danab bash a few days ago to uh defend Donald Trump calling you know kamla or basically just how she chose her racial identity how she turned black those comments right she turned black recently so JD V smartly pivoted and said look like I think what uh you know what I believe what she believes but here's the with KLA Harris she says one thing in front of R room she says one thing in another room we don't know what she stands for she's not talking to the media she's not doing interviews she has no North Star ideologically as John said and so like that is a compelling hit on her like who is this person like she's a mystery now the flip side of this is to the extent KLA is surging right now and Trump is on defense and how do you run against this person one thing that has shifted pretty decisively from Biden to kamla is that this C campaign is playing to win like they don't care that they're flip-flopping like on an issue they're like I don't care yeah we're not for Medicare for all anymore we don't want to abolish I anymore uh and they're just like throwing punches at Donald Trump they're mocking him they aren't afraid to just like put out like a you know sarcastic press release they're calling him weird like they are just fully on people by the way were all these people working in Wilmington before July 21st and they just they they they got Unshackled John conduct to that well I would say I would say that the that look there's there were always the Biden team I think Peter you'd agree with this the Biden team had a had a good creative bunch of digital strategists who were there who were there on the digital side who were there prior to the change over I think those people in the end you know C you could have the best digital strategist in the world if you but it's all about the candidate there are candidates who are who are potentially viral and meable and candidates who are not Joe Biden with the with with uh I don't know who the best EX like if you try to take like I don't know um uh you know the some so if you created some some kind of a platonic ideal of a digital strategist who had you know the the Strategic Savvy of of Carl Rove and the and the digital uh the digital Savvy of you know XXX and you could you can't make Joe Biden or Hillary Clinton into a good memeable candidate you can't do that with Mitt Romney either there are candidates that are that are that are are that as a brand you can sell to young people in a way earlier it was there were there were some candidates that were Facebook or tweetable or or whatever the the stage of technological Evolution was sh Harris's and walls are both in different ways in the same way that Bernie it's not a bad age Like Bernie was like totally social media friendly even though he was old and grumpy and had danger all the time he wasn't Pokemon going to the PO I mean even even Trump even of the TR was a great social media candidate Dr gr was a great social media candidate for him for his purposes I mean he dominated social media he dominated Twitter in 2016 it helped him win you know so I think it's not you can't lay it at their feet I think there are a bunch of talented digital people who now have something to work with um on the with with having this this nominee and they're all you know let's go you know you could see it when they went very quickly and adopted the uh the Charlie uh the the the the BR the cones brat thing and they suddenly like you know they they were moving on a dime to like adopt that on all their in all their their you know the the the avatars all over the the the social media accounts they were like I think those people feel like they're liberated well even even the coconut tree thing right take a thing that is being used to mock her is laughing Kamala and but beyond the social media feeds John like you because you reported a bunch of these Obama mercenaries coming in like after K became the nominee like from like it did feel I like to think of I like to think of them not as mercenaries because I'm not sure they're gonna be making very much money doing this I think the it's they there're the Obama mercenaries are making more money outside the campaign than they'll make inside the campaign but I think the Obama the Obama people are hardcore right but that's what I'm saying so like if the the body people are cautious so then did like the Pluff and and uh you know Stephanie cutter and these folks come in and just be like like say like the Biden people like oh we shouldn't we shouldn't change her position on this and Pluff just be like who cares I think the I think that that that the Biden people were doing the best they could do with a flawed candidate and they thought and they thought that that that they that they you know different Canada different strategies like and and I think what what I would say is that uh you know a lot of the way a campaigns uh temperament and metabolism is set from the very top and and Mike donellan Steve rete people who had been around Biden for 30 years in Anita a lot of those people Anita's you know these are those are serious people they very talented and they and they got they won presidential election and some of them have won more than one but there's a different cast to there there's a was a softer more insular this group is not insular or um like top down um they are used to the Obama which still has a hierarchy in it but they're used to a lot flattered organization communicating a lot more clearly and also there just a lot they're like they've been out of the game they've won two presidential elections in the past for the first black president of the United States there's not a lot that they're afraid of they've been here before they've had in in in a race with not with Trump but with very similar dynamics of a boundary breaking candidate who's going to be there's going to be things you have to deal with on that front and they are all there for 90 days and only care about one thing the only reason they're there which is like they're there to win they don't give a they have another career they're not looking for another job they're not looking to run another campaign they're there they've already got they're all in the Hall of Fame so it's like and they're and they have come in to your point I think the the the people who make the stuff we're all talented people they now have a new candidate and they have leadership that's very very uh Relentless and hyperfocused and really competitive and David Pluff who's I who I know you know really well the main thing about David is that he's he's he's analytically brilliant he's a great organizational mind and he understands how to make these things work in a million ways but the the core thing about him is he's like one of the most scarily competitive human beings I've ever met in my life it would rip your esophagus out if if that was what it took to to to win for the candidate he was running for and that was if he'd be running for a congressional C in Delaware not like for for to stop Donald Trump I mean there's that eye of the tiger is in there now and those people are have fresh legs also but the fresh legs thing is really important because it's like these guys didn't go through they weren't like in rice patties trying to keep Biden alive as a candidate for months and months and months they were sitting on the outside watching all that and now they're in the like that was a struggle man it's like you can't people were all trying to do good work and they're all trying to save the country from Trump but it was a you know dragging Biden forward to try to keep that going from the standpoint of an operative was not fun it was a slog and these people who came in you know the the Mitch Stewarts of the world and the David binders of the world and and and David and and the rest of them these people are like man they're they've been in the bullpen you know they're like they're they're ready to go in and work you know one quick inning basically what it is really all it is this right it's a 90day spring in a two-year campaign cycle bring in fresh arms and the fresh arms are fresh uh and they it's like you know Mar Rivera is still pretty great when he was like 41 you know still saw him sawing bats on people out of people's hands at 41 you know that's that's sort of Pluff right now so so they're having fun at Wilmington headquarters but let's go back to Mar Lago for a second not having fun and we were talking for a while like the intervention with with Joe Biden who's doing the intervention how does it work uh over in Maraga right now how does an intervention work with Donald Trump how has it worked in the past as he Kellan Conway's name being U tossed around how does a conversation work with Donald Trump uh where they have to explain to him if you keep doing what you're doing you're going to lose in November uh well not not easily I think there's a t i mean it's a really look I don't think it necessarily worked all way with Joe Biden either the Str interventions with candidates are hard um I would not say there's a lot of them who who take those interventions well they're not just candidates right he's been the president of United States that's and he's also Donald Trump he's also Donald Trump I think you know I don't know I think people have been trying to encourage him if you read that piece in the times that Maggie and uh Haberman and and Jonathan Swan wrote over the weekend that was that that that that gave this picture of this high-end donor dinner uh that Trump was at out in the Hamptons which is a really beautiful piece of reporting because it was very Vivid and it's the kind of thing that anyone around Trump has to confront which is like you know all these donors who are kind of going you gotta stop Mr President we love you we really want you to win but you got to stop saying you can't campaign this way that way this way that way and he's like you like I I'm not I'm G here listen to you and they're and and you then see Nikki Haley on television last night saying the same thing which it just drives Trump further away from rationality like he sees Birdbrain Nikki out there I'm using his name for her you know and and it makes it makes it makes it harder and he's gonna fire uh Suzie or or lasv in the next I mean you know we could run a pool here on on when he fires campaign managers in the summer of campaigns he's done it he did in 2016 I think maybe twice um he did in 2020 when he fired Brad parscale He's G to fire one of these two and and and I think you know in some ways I saw this floated somewhere else but in some ways I think the the Supreme Court immunity thing has changed the game for Trump in some ways because he now feels less worried about going to prison than he was when he didn't know that he had immunity and I think that doesn't mean he doesn't want to win but I don't think it's not as it's like part of why he was willing to do with Susie wilds and Chris Las who are both serious campaign people part of the reason why he was willing to submit himself to them in the period of the time mosha that you said where he was pretty relatively disciplined for Trump was it because he was afraid to go into jail he was like okay tell me what to do keep me out of jail you guys keep me out of jail great so great right I I need to be president again so I stay out of jail and now jail is looking like less of is less likely and I think his fear is less likely and I just I mean I I don't make predictions and I I I do occasionally make bets but I mean the odds of of one of those two being fired between now and Labor Day really high really high and that's why it's really hard to do an intervention because you know you walk in the door and go sir you know we all have to have a talk well you can have that talk uh on the plane on your way back home see you later bye you know nice to know you I don't know what I'm trying to do I can't do a trump invitation I'm not I was gonna say that sounded actually much more like Bill Clinton I know I know it's I always laughs back and oh man I love that top Peter hamy he would come in and he'd have this he had these floral ties every time I saw him I thought to Peter man you are a handsome young man I swear if if I was as good if I was as goodl looking as you when I was that age you can't imagine what the trouble I would have gotten into Peter uh what what are Republicans telling you and how big a deal is September 10th that debate I mean it's a big deal it's a big deal for kamla too I mean that was the thing she can't by the way I agree with the idea and but she will solve this there's all this like talk out there that she needs to talk to reporters she needs to do interviews like yeah she needs to do one or two yeah she should do some press gaggles they'll fix that the big test will be uh voters don't give a yeah they don't give a flying f i based on what you guys based on what you guys just said it sounds like KLA Harris is just reinforcing what we already learned from Trump and what we learned from Biden which is we you know our our colleagues in the mainstream media uh who uh were once the most important thing between the the voters and the politicians are no longer the case that's no longer the case and Tom just reinforc that like I don't need to do you guys I'm doing incredible job so far defining myself I need to do podcasts I need to do mod news I need to reach direct people I need to talk to as Harris you hadla Harris on Snap ex by the way here's a good example thank you for saying that and this is why I think that she will be good in the debate I would say that the take you know that I think I'm most proud of this cycle was interviewed comml Harris for my Snapchat show in March in Phoenix um and I hadn't spent a lot of time with her up close since you knew the caricature 2020 2019 maybe in cover talk to her in the Senate talk to her a few times for president you know it been a while and so yeah you knew the the caricature and the Selena Meyer memes and whatever and we we talk I talked to her about Gaza and young voters and third party voters and uh prices and rent and just like a variety of issues you know it's 20 minute interview we cut down to Snapchat size so not that long but the thing I came away from was like oh wow she's way better than I remember and like that's just a function I think of you know the VP slot like no one covers you you're kind of like it's not the world's greatest job um but you get your rep explain people besides Dick Cheney VPS have never really mattered yeah I mean they I think the reason why that guy John an Gard the job was that wasn't worth more than a bucket of warm piss correct all the kids who watch the show can go look it up and you'll see Warren bucket a spit but that's not he really John is right it's piss but anyway KL Harris had at that point met with like 160 world leaders she's done media interviews she had done a college uh tour she had been going to swing States and she had been given a series of issues reaching out to young voters and abortion rights in particular post dos that just felt more in her Strike Zone than like steming immigration from the northern trial whatever and so she just felt comfortable and I wrote for pck you know this is maybe the best I've ever seen her and like again I didn't I didn't know her in 1999 when when John did but like for my little context from like 2016 to 2020 I was like oh man she's good and then she becomes the nine and everyone sees she's pretty good and so with this debate look I mean she's going to have to have answers on issues Trump I just think I really I don't want to predict the future but I think especially compared to Biden like she just has to get out there be agile finish sentences like stick to her lines the standard is low these days stand is pretty low and that's like like Trump looked we always forget because Biden was so bad in that debate Trump looked terrible on that debate he looked angry and sweaty and like he didn't have a message either and it's hard to was performance his was one of the worst debate performances in history right so the stakes are certainly High the race is still close in the Battlegrounds Etc but I just think I think she's coming in um uh you know I don't know I just think I I think she'll be better prepared than um I think she I think she will do she will do interviews I mean she's not going to do that like there's a reason why they haven't made there they haven't told you know Trump's got these three debates that he's proposed they've agreed to the original one and their attitude is um their their public position is well let's wait and see if Trump shows up which perfectly plausible like perfectly reasonable place like wait we'll talk about the other debates once we've gotten through the one that was agreed to before if Trump shows up we'll talk about it then that's a good that's both a uh a reasonable position and a good position tactically to take because why would you pre-commit to debates with Trump given a his flakiness b uh you don't know what what is this whole Brave New World here let's see how that debate goes from their standpoint and see do they need another debate they not to to again back to Peter's thing about how they have the how they want to win they will do as many mainstream media interviews as they think they have to do to win the race they will not do them because they badgering them they will not do them because JD Vance is saying that they have to their attitude is like you know we're going to decide what the right number is now I'm not saying they'll get that right and there will be I think for the America for the people who matter in the election which is really this is a deep thing of of research the people who are going to actually determine the outcome of the election there's you know a thing that was never done for her because it's never done for vice presidents it was done for Biden to some extent although Mike donalan was much less data focused than someone like David plff is it's like they will know in real time you know on the basis of analytics and polling like like when are they're doing enough to make people feel that they know kamla Harris that she's answered questions that satisfy people's concerns and when not they have a we have a reasonable sense of that as we roll through and so I think they're they right now if you're on the rle she's on why would you go to an interview where like it's like you got a convention you've got the last thing you can control in the whole cycle is next week this is the thing that people basically don't understand about presidential campaigns which is you control almost nothing contr VP announcement you control your own your own you control your own announcement speech you control the VP announcement to some extent although that's even once it gets out there who knows yeah and your convention for 4 days you get to run a television show and a digital media operation for 4 days where you're basically unobstructed Trump will try to make noise around it but basically you have the air to yourself after that you're done everything's out of your hands at that point so like they are I think saying she's been the dayao nominee for less than a month guys and she's on a rooll here I mean this what they're saying to themselves why would we because JD Vance is yelling at us about she's not taking questions why would you why no one right now seems to be caring what she's doing the work of consolidating no normal human cares about that John's totally right right and at some point if the if the if the people if if if persuadable voters in the Battleground states start to express concern that they don't know enough about her or that she hasn't answered questions they need to hear more The Campaign Will will be able to adapt to that going forward again they will either get it right or get it wrong they could it up completely but like right now this is what a smart discipline campaign would do which is ke keep the winning days Trump has not won a news cycle since that Sunday when Biden stepped aside not a single one and they have four days of control next week when they get to the other side of the convention and see where the numbers are around Labor Day what work do we need to do what states are actually in play we know these three blue wall states are in play but is Arizona really in play is Georgia really in play is North Carolina in play is Nevada in play are we playing at all seven or are we not playing it all seven who are the voters in those groups in those states that we needed to proide 6% in each one of those States I mean they are be going to be methodical and that's like the way they are I'm not saying she's not beatable she's beatable she could F she could this up in 50 different ways she could it up in the debate she could it up in the first time she does an interview she could it up on a rope line she could it up in a press conference she could it up anywhere a lot of things we don't know she's not she never been a a nominee of a party before and she's still totally new she's been perfect so far would you bet on her being perfect for the rest of it they're never perfect up she GNA up somehow Will trump capitalize when she up how big will she up when she up she will up they all up Will trump be able to capitalize or Will trump be out of his mind and talking about you know whether she's actually black or not you know when a moment when a real candidate would capitalize all these things are unknown she could lose it in a million ways but like right now man they are playing their hand in a very both aggressive and careful way it's like being really being really rigorous and also aggressive is that is a Pluff specialty like that is a thing of like how do you be totally controlled within your game but also be really risky be be really aggressive in terms of of where you press your advantage and where you take risks uh that's what they're doing right now but we'll see on the other side of Labor day it'll be that's when like the next after they have I'm sure be a very successful convention next week um because I very likely will be but you'll get to the other side of Labor Day and then we'll see can Trump get it together does she start making mistakes what is the actual the map that actually matters and who are the voters that that are still out there to get Peter what are Republicans telling you uh NE Trump who want Trump to win Etc about how the next 80 or so days go I think that well like so if you talk to Republicans working for outside groups for Senate campaigns um they were very happy a month ago as we've been saying this whole hour um they're playing defense now um I mean quinnn of PX just came out with a Pennsylvania poll showing Harris plus three over Trump but Bob Casey now winning Pennsylvania over Dave mccorn by eight points um preserve America and Maga Inc for the first time are spending a shitload of money not as much as future forward and and the KLA campaign they're spending more money than than Trump you're talking about the Republican super packs supporting Trump here yes yeah yeah so those are the two big Pro trump super packs they're in all seven of the quote unquote Battlegrounds including North Carolina and North Carolina is you know I think it I think it's actually like in play that's my like personal opinion um but uh that was not a state that the Trump campaign or their allies were spending money in uh when Biden was in the race and and when Biden was in the race and we saw this from a range of polling um suddenly Virginia and Colorado and New Hampshire and all these other states were like notionally at least in play and so Trump is um playing defense there's spreading money around elsewhere that's like less money to go to Senate candidates I mean and the flip side of this is talk to democratic campaigns I mean you saw the rally in Nevada uh a few days ago with uh Trump sorry with kamla and Tim Walls Jackie Rosen the incumbent senator from Nevada she was kind of hiding from Joe Biden for a good month or two even before number of democratic members of Congress watch where the candidates move like they are in the rallies I'll be interested to see if they if Comm gets to the point where she's so favorable they can use her image and tv ads and whatnot but there money was frozen in that Biden period even down ballot like people were just confused what like what to do about their party and now you see Democratic candidates rling to KLA Harris uh you know whether she's flip-flopping on fracking in Pennsylvania or not like Bob Casey is much more willing to talk about KLA Harris than he was Joe Biden so I just you know if you if you've been around campaigns enough you just get a sense of where the mo momentum is and the Good Vibes are and it certainly feels that way down ballot for Democrats and I don't get that impression when I talk to Republican Strat just right now it's just uh not great not great one question I have is have the pollsters that you guys talked to fixed whatever the prom was in 16 and 20 do they feel like they can actually account uh for Trump voters um how do you read polls because there's always this sort of idea that there's going to be a slight Democratic Advantage but republ they have to get they have to have such an advantage that they can actually win um have they figured out a way to to get to the bottom of the of getting a real sense of uh at the state level um how they're doing we don't know so 20 this is like now you know the short answer is they still don't know like we fixed all the problems of 2016 really we fixed them all it's like oh we didn't fix any of them there there's a lot of interesting things going on actually so 2016 pulling err what was it five or six points uh Trump won surprise uh 2018 Trump's not on the ball polls are accurate 2020 Trump's back on the ballot polling error surprise uh Biden uh wins but by less than the polls said 2022 polls were good so that's the sort of conventional wisdom Trump's on the ballot polls are tough Trump's off the ballot polls are more accurate you also have what's going on right now there's like so much like news out there and excitement and and momentum for Democrats you've got this um you know like Nate silver calls it like response bias like people are more willing to answer polls and deliver favor opinions uh if ex candidate is doing better and so like maybe kers is doing better in the polls than she actually is because those Comm supporters are more excited to like answer the phone and talk to a pollster and other uh Republicans or Trump supporters are not and then on top of that your C is not doing well you might not answer the call yeah and so look online polling has existed now for what like five or six Cycles like midterm and and presidential and it's gotten pretty good um but we just don't know we don't know how uh the thing with Trump is always like he brings in people from outside the political process and so a pollster a good pollster will sort of like go through the V voter roles Match full numbers to that call those people they have voted before Trump brought people into the process that and voted before so it's like hard to follow who they are and now like the media environment is so different you've got all these people aging into the electorate I think like six or seven million people are going to turn 18 between now and election day I'm saying all those people are going to register to vote but like how do you reach those people it's like really really really hard so polls have been generally still pretty accurate pollers have made up for this problem by waiting uh non- col voters more uh so they'll like sort of extrapolate from their results and sort of balance out their polling but something that by the way everyone talks about polling like it's science like it's sometimes it's just like mysticism and Magic they're guessing they're guessing what the elector is going to look like and so we I don't know if things have been solved I mean polls were accurate at when Trump was not on the ballot polls are not as accurate when he is on the ballot here we are finally I want to end with Bobby Kennedy Jr because there was a moment well because why not um there was a moment because there's at least one of the three of us also has a worm in his brain right now speak there was a moment in the spring where it felt like wow this guy could be the most impactful third party candidate since Russ Pro um when you looked at some of the polling uh you know again not winning but like oh wow he's in Double D he's hitting 10% he's hitting 12% and then he's not really campaigning he's doing these calls with Trump um but most significantly you know as we you mentioned earlier he was taking advantage of like the double haters out there like I hate Biden I hate Trump I'll just go Bobby like I need to send a message to the parties that they can't keep nominating guys that I hate what do you get I mean do you have a sense of what what is his plan the last three months what are his goals here um and what potential impact especially in some states where like the margin was like 10,000 right in places like Georgia and Arizona Etc in 2020 so even that like he could make a difference if he's on the ballot there well I'll very quickly say I have no idea what his I mean he's crazy person like you're asking like what's what's what's he why is he doing this what like I why is he doing this because sometimes you're doing it because you want a TV show or a book or but I I'm get what is his motivation I I do I have no idea I thought the new yor piece that CLA Malone wrote that came out a week or two ago was actually like unbelievably Illuminating because like I knew about him as like an Environmental Lawyer and and but like it goes very deep on his bio and yeah he is a very weird person he's a wreck he's a wreck he's he's he's mentally I mean he has they're all yeah mentally ill various ways but he's you know I mean I think the reality is mha I don't know the answer to this I always thought by the way this is five b of the record I look back at the beginning you know when he people were most concerned about him He's Just Not That guy is not um all there like in the sense of like he's not you know and and the fact that you couldn't tell uh this is not one of these kind of interesting post ideological candidates who like somehow draw because he's a Libertarian like you know Bernie Sanders could sometimes draw you you know if you take the left Libertarians and you go far enough to the right eventually Bernie Sanders and Peter T having dinner somewhere it's like theory of the hesho like he's not like that he's just a conspiracy theory nut who has the name Kennedy and so like the the issue with him was that because he was called Kennedy there was some view that Democrat there were some Democrats who didn't like Joe Biden who might drift to to to him and because he's mostly known as a right-wing antiva conspiracy theorist on a bunch of fronts he was G he he was a risk to Trump to take away some votes from Trump and I actually think what we're seeing right now is that this is another effect of Biden getting out of the race is that the double haters the ones who were like basically Democrats who didn't want to vote for Biden now I'm not not all of there no automatic thing here that that Harris will get all of them but a lot of the Kennedy Democratic vote were people like that traditional Democrats didn't really know much about except he was named Kennedy and they didn't they would never vote for Trump they they thought Biden was too old and so hey there's a guy named Kennedy on the ballot maybe I'm talking about very low information voters here and on the right and on the right hand on the right side the reason the Trump people were always terrified that is they knew that on the issues and as people got to know him better that his like his his environmental record is not the thing people know about him people know what he is what he has been fundamentally for the last decade or more is a is a classic right-wing conspiracy nut and that is a problem for Trump and I think as you're starting to see a lot of this shake out and even I think Tony Fabrizio Trump's pollster would acknowledge this now that you in almost every poll now with against Harris in the three-way set that him being on the ballot helps her as opposed to what it used to have be before not by a lot but by a couple points look at the difference between most of the polls where it's just Harrison Trump head-to-head versus when you throw the Kennedy thing in she's always she always picks up a point or two net on on Trump and those because most of the voters he's taking away now are Trump voters and they're mostly again that kind of antix uh conspiracy theory uh qanon type who were like into him he's Bonkers I mean he's bonkers the bear story alone the Central Park bear story is enough to prove that but like just think about a presidential candidate who in his adult life sexually assaulted or harassed a babysitter who then when it was found out decided to write a not particularly apologetic text message to her in the middle of the presidential campaign and then when asked if there would be any more stories like this said I don't know I wasn't a choir boy growing up like that guy is a guy who's gonna diminish the more people know about him the smaller his vote share is GNA get because I I'm not try to be like funny or dismissive I just think there are candidates who Expo the more exposure they get the more sunlight they get the more their impact goes down and he was a guy who was like at his peak of potential salience when no one knew anything about him um and and now the more people know about him the more it dwindles and dwindles and dwindles and I imagine in the end I'll make a bet here on this program that in the Battleground states that Bobby Kennedy will be at under 2% in every Battleground state by the time we get yeah third party candidates and this is true in Statewide races it's true in presidential like they get the buzz they don't close out as strong as they show in polls that like almost always happens um and you also on top of that have the DNC and some outside Democratic groups who have been putting all this pressure on him for months and months basically trying to bring him down in the polls but so he's on the ballot so far in 19 States among them are Pennsylvania Wisconsin Michigan and uh North Carolina so those would be like the four Battlegrounds these that he's on the ballot and he has enough signatures to get on in Georgia but Democrats are suing him block him but I think John is right like he was over indexing in polls among black voters Hispanic voters um you know not to be dismissive but they were like sort of the under 40 uh low information voters and a lot of them were young men and he was also over indexing among um young white men and like those people there's a gender gap by the way among young Millennials in gen Z like under 30 voters that's very interesting to watch like a lot of the the younger women are actually at parody uh with kamla as they were with Biden in 2020 but young men are drifting toward Trump or drifting toward the couch yeah and so some of those folks were going for RFK Jor but I think I just like they they might have already been in the Trump RFK bucket anyway um sort of to what JN is saying so I think I think JN is basically right about the directionality of his candidacy and I think that to your point mha is that like look if this race is super close I mean super super close which it could be you know reasonable assumption everybody's it's all GNA matter you know like I mean they're they're going to you're going to be worried about you know they're looking at I mean Cornell West isn't going to draw a lot of votes but he's going to draw some votes and with and again when Biden was on the ticket uh Cornell West was a problem with black women um because black women were never gonna go to Trump and they were and a lot of black women didn't want to go to Biden and Cornell West not in he wasn't I'm not talking about I mean a problem like a thing where Cornell West takes 11 or 12 per of black women over 45 if the race is close enough that's a problem in in Pennsylvania or Michigan uh obviously that's going to change now with Harris right and that it's happening also with with with on the I mean it's an interesting thing you know to to go back to the very top of the conversation when Peter has made this very important Point she is doing better than Biden uh in every voter group that she needs to improve with Latinos of all ages African-Americans of all ages better with women than with men but still with men which is where the Trump people had kind of tried to get a beach head going she's doing better with with with young voters she's doing better all those sets but she's still not at Biden's 2020 numbers with any of them now that's not a she's only been in the race a month and they but they need to grow into those numbers because she's still way below where Biden performed in 2020 so you know like but that's you could end up in a situation where where you know Cornell West Jill snin Bobby Kennedy uh they or any of them could have an effect the question is kind of whether you know some of these states in the end if they're all uh basically white noise level does the do the left candidates who take some votes away from Harris on the left meaning Cornell West and Jill Stein kind of cancel out the votes that that Kennedy takes away if they're if they're small enough and you end up with where Bobby Kennedy is more of a Cornell West Jill Stein kind of candidate and then you're kind of like they could end up canceling each other out and not having any impact at all I me I'm speculating a little bit but that's more what it's looking like now like that Kennedy is more the one who's going to draw maybe a point or a point and a half away from Trump and and those Lefty candidates uh might draw a point point and a halfway from Harrison it might not matter because they're kind of balancing each other out the problem was when we thought that Kennedy might be the problem for Democrats was that he could he could have looking at a situation where Cornell West Jill Stein and Bobby Kennedy all taking votes away from Biden that was like a situation that Trump people really liked uh and why you often saw Trump uh on Kennedy um uh before it started to DET turn and then he was like oh maybe I need to have this guy in my Administration yeah yeah um I mean you can read Trump's not was pretty transparent in his calculations when you see how Trump talks about Kennedy you could tell what their what Tony Fabo was telling Trump at various phases of the race about who Kennedy was taking votes away from you can track it pretty well with the way Trump talks about Kennedy because he's been all over the map John Peter we'll leave it there uh see you guys in uh in Chicago