>>> THERE'S NEW ANALYSIS SHOWING A DRAMATIC DROP IN VIOLENT CRIME ACROSS MAJOR U.S. CITIES. 54 OF 69 MAJOR CITIES IN THE REPORT SAW DROPS IN VIOLENT CRIME IN THE FIRST HALF OF 2024. THAT'S ACCORDING TO THE AXIOS REEVE OF A REPORT FROM THE MAJOR CHIEFS ASSOCIATION, A GROUP OF POLICE EXECUTIVES. AXIOS, WHICH PUBLISHED THE DATA, SAYS IT PUTS A MAJOR DENT IN ONE OF DONALD TRUMP'S CENTRAL TALKING POINTS AND OPENS UP A WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY FOR KAMALA HARRIS. BACK WITH ME, MSNBC POLITICAL ANALYST AND FORMER HUD SECRETARY, JULIAN CASTRO. SO CRIME SOMETHING YOU KNOW FROM BOTH A MICRO AND MACRO LEVEL. I THINK YOU WERE ON THE CITY COUNCIL BEFORE YOU BECAME MAYOR OF SAN ANTONIO. OF COURSE, YOU RAN FOR PRESIDENT, YOU WERE HUD SECRETARY. SO WHAT DOES KAMALA HARRIS DO WITH THIS? BECAUSE WE KNOW HOW EFFECTIVE THE ISSUE OF CRIME HAS BEEN FOR THE TRUMP CAMPAIGN. >> WELL, ABSOLUTELY, CHRIS. THIS IS AN ISSUE THAT REPUBLICANS TEND TO RUN ON, AS MANY TIMES AS THEY CAN. WE ALL REMEMBER THE FAMOUS -- INFAMOUS WILLIE HORTON ADD, THAT GEORGE H.W. BUSH RAN AGAINST MICHAEL DUKAKIS. THEY ARGUED THAT DEMOCRATS WERE SOFT ON CRIME. AND THAT'S THE FICTION THAT TRUMP IS TELLING IN THIS CYCLE, WHETHER IT'S ON BORDER OR IT'S WITH VIOLENT CRIME HAPPENING IN THE COUNTRY AND HERE'S THE THING. EVERY NIGHT, PEOPLE WATCH ON THE EVENING NEWS, CRIME REPORTING AFTER CRIME REPORTING. THAT OLD ADAGE IF IT BLEEDS, IT LEADS, GENERALLY IS TRUE ON LOCAL TV NEWS. SO IT'S PARTICULARLY IMPORTANT FOR THE HARRIS CAMPAIGN TO BE ABLE TO TELL THE STORY EFFECTIVELY. AND SHE'S TAILOR MADE FOR THIS. SHE WAS A PROSECUTOR, SHE'S WORKED WITH LAW ENFORCEMENT AND WORKED WITH COMMUNITIES OUT THERE TO MAKE SURE POLICING IS DONE RIGHT. SHE HAS A STRONG CASE TO MAKE HERE. I THINK SHE'S MAKING IT. I WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED IF SHE GOES ON THE OFFENSE ON THIS ISSUE, LIKE THEY DID WITH THE BORDER A FEW DAYS AGO, TO TRY TO DISPEL THE FICTION AND THE OVERBLOWN NARRATIVE THAT DONALD TRUMP AND HIS CAMPAIGN ARE GIVING. AND I THINK ACTUALLY LISTEN TO THE FACTS THAT VIOLENT CRIME IS DOWN, 6% ACROSS THE BOARD. IN SOME COMMUNITIES IT'S DOWN AS MUCH AS 25%. BUT, HEY, WE KNOW FROM 2016, WE KNOW FROM THE WAY THAT DONALD TRUMP OPERATES THAT YOU CAN'T COUNT ON FACTS WINNING OUT BECAUSE HE'S GOING TO KEEP TELLING FICTION OVER AND OVER AND OVER AGAIN. KAMALA HARRIS IS GOING TO NEED TO BE JUST AS ENERGETIC ABOUT LAYING THOSE FACTS OUT, AND LAYING OUT HOW SHE WOULD WORK WITH LOCAL COMMUNITIES TO KEEP MAKING SURE THAT VIOLENT CRIME GOES DOWN AND PEOPLE ARE SAFE. >> THAT'S THE CONUNDRUM, EVEN BEFORE THE NEW STUDY CAME OUT THAT "AXIOS" REPORTED ON, I'M GOING TO GO TO AN ANALYSIS OF A NUMBER OF STUDIES FROM THE BRENNAN CENTER, AND HERE'S WHAT THEY SAID. NUMEROUS STUDIES SHOW THAT IMMIGRATION IS NOT LINKED TO HIGHER LEVELS OF CRIME BUT RATHER THE OPPOSITE. THIS IS SHOWING REUTERS, BUT I'M READING FROM, IN FACT, THE BRENNAN CENTER. MY QUESTION TO YOU IS WHY IS THAT NOT GETTING THROUGH? >> BECAUSE I THINK THAT PEOPLE ARE OFTEN PREDISPOSED TO BELIEVE THAT CRIME IS GOING UP. AND I THINK A LOT OF IT DOES HAVE TO DO WITH THE LOCAL NEWS MEDIA ENVIRONMENT. YOU TURN ON THE TV, AND THERE'S CONSTANT REPORTING ABOUT EVERY SHOOTING, EVERY ACT OF VIOLENT CRIME OUT THERE. THAT LITERALLY IS WHAT LEADS THE 5, 6:00 AND 10:00 NEWS OVERNIGHT. >> YOU KNOW THAT'S NOT GOING TO CHANGE, SO THAT'S A PROBLEM, RIGHT? >> THIS IS WHY REPUBLICANS, ESPECIALLY, TRY AND USE THIS ISSUE AGAINST DEMOCRATS. BUT HERE'S THE THING, THE FACTS ARE THAT VIOLENT CRIME HAS GONE DOWN, AND THAT THIS ADMINISTRATION HAS WORKED WITH LOCAL COMMUNITIES TO ASSURE THAT PEOPLE ARE SAFE. SO THE FACTS ARE ON HER SIDE, AND NOW IT'S ABOUT MAKING SURE THAT THE MESSAGE IS THERE THAT IS CLEARLY AND CONSISTENTLY PUT OUT THERE. I THINK YOU SEE THEM ALREADY DOING THAT. AND, I BELIEVE THAT ENOUGH PEOPLE ARE GOING TO BE ABLE TO SEE THROUGH THE SMOKE SCREEN THAT DONALD TRUMP IS