"No Excitement" for Apple (AAPL) Despite A.I. Features

Published: Sep 10, 2024 Duration: 00:06:07 Category: Education

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next gen investing. It's now time to bring in a special guest today, Logan Gill, an analyst at Joule Financial, to break down the entire Glow Time event from Apple for us, which was definitely headline news. I will say Logan, but walk me through what you liked, what you didn't like. I also tuned in. I have my own mixed thoughts, so I'm curious. Your feedback here. Yeah, I mean there's mixed thoughts. There's some cool, interesting things, but for the most part, I think it was kind of boring, honestly. Like they added a couple of these small incremental changes that we've been seeing over the last few big announcements from Apple, and it just didn't seem like there was anything flashy or exciting. And you introduced me what I said in my notes, it feels like Apple's kind of become Toyota and not a McLaren anymore, right? It's not exciting. There's no flashiness. There's no like, oh my goodness, I got to go out and buy this. No, you probably just going to, you know, be with your Verizon or AT&T. Wait for the next time that you have an upgrade and you're going to go with that upgrade cycle. Now is there some cool things that we saw? Yeah, some interesting things, but most of them seem pretty niche. Like they're trying to target a specific demographic and they're not necessarily a great thing for all users. So things like in your in your Apple AirPods now having some hearing tests that are going to go on or sleep apnea devices for your Apple Watch. Those two are targeting demographics that are of the older generation. And it seems like that's not even really Apple's target audience. You don't see many grandparents having their AirPods in. So there's some of these different things that they're trying to implement and add on. And it just it didn't seem exciting to me. It seemed pretty boring. The stock didn't really have a big move either way on this news. It just kind of coasted after it. Logan, I appreciate the sentiment because I think it echoes a sentiment that I've shared on this program. A lot of times over the years, which is the iPhone is no longer discretionary. It's a staple. The quickest way to get me to buy the new phone is that I break the one I have. I need it to function in society now we're just talking with our last couple of guests. The app ordering. Everything goes through the phone. Now however, I have the iPhone 11. It's still working fine, so I love the Toyota McLaren kind of conversation. What gets me to get a new car is the old car starts to break down, and so when I look at this going forward, there was so much hype that this was going to be the one that was discretionary. Again what if it isn't? Is there risk to the downside as far as you see it, in terms of disappointment going forward, or is it still too early to tell? I think it is based on valuation. I mean, just like you're talking, it's become a utility like everybody has to have your phone. You need it for pretty much everything. But there's no excitement in order to go out and buy more Apple products. Even some of the ancillary products, like the AirPods or the watch or things like that, it's just it's kind of coasting again. You if you have that, if you're in the ecosystem, you probably buy a new one every once in a while. Whenever you need a new one. But there's nothing exciting there. But if you look at the valuation, you have a forward multiple of 29.6. You have expected EPs growth of 11%. It's not very strong. It seems pretty overvalued for Apple. I'm worried about that moving forward for the stock. I think that there could be some downward pressure. We're already seeing rotation in the technology area after these have really led the market for the last two years. These big technology companies are starting to slow down and starting to have some weakness. And I think Apple could be one of those. It is kind of this staple almost to a degree, where it's just kind of chugging along, continuing to have those recurring sales. When you have your two year cycle on your iPhone and then you get a new one or whatever it is, but there's nothing to encourage that growth. It seems like there's a lack of innovation going on, and I think that's going to hurt the stock moving forward. I mean, I don't think it's going to be going away anytime soon. We're still going to be using our iPhones. But that historic long term growth rate that you've seen, I think that's slowing down significantly. And I think the price will affect that over time. I totally agree. And I think like you look at Apple with its valuation I mean it stretches. It's the most expensive it's ever been. So that's also somewhat of I think confusing, but just curious. Your final thoughts here on the Apple intelligence component. Because again, this to me is the most inarguably like concerning part of this entire event is that we're not even going to get that. A lot of that rollout, I believe in beta until next month, but then more and more of those features until the beginning of next year. So I'm like, how are we arguing this supercycle? If the AI component isn't even coming to these devices until next year? I mean, to me, there's like a massive disconnect with like the expectations for Apple's AI. And then the actual reality of this timeline. Yeah, I agree entirely. I mean, they're coming out in this whole Apple intelligence is going to be the biggest next new thing. But you noticed even in that call they did sprinkle it in, but they focused a lot on the hardware that they're bringing out for different lines because Apple intelligence, who knows what's really going to happen. We're going to get the beta here in a month or so, and then probably have that final rollout sometime next year, but no one knows what that's going to do or how much it's going to be encouraged. I mean, if you look at most iPhone users, many people don't even use half the functionality that your iPhone has right now to add this Apple intelligence and act like that's going to be the next new thing that's just going to boost tons and tons of growth. I just I don't I don't buy into it. It doesn't make a whole lot of sense to me. I mean, I know they had even like the feature of the new camera. Well, I'd tell you, 50% of Apple users probably don't know that you can take a picture with your volume button. I mean, there's a lot of these different things that they're trying to implement and show that we're adding value. But I still don't think that's going to drive the bottom line. And that's what we're here to talk about. I totally could not agree more. I mean, there's been such an expectation I think like reset following WWDC, where this event to me just was disappointing if you tuned in, frankly. So I'm so glad to hear my thoughts echoed similarly, but we'll leave it there. Great, great insight. Logan Gill, an analyst at Joule Financial. Thank you for breaking down t

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