all right YouTube how you doing welcome back to the channel we got Monday Night Football week number one 49ers taking on the Jets in today's video we're going to go through this game I'm going to give you my lean on the spread I'll give you my lean on the total we'll talk about any other player props got two of them as of right now that I'm liking in the game as well but keep an eye on the pinned comment for any updates or added plays that's where I'm going to put down what I'm actually rolling with myself and what I got the odds at there too so make sure to keep an eye on the pin comment everything we talk about in the video are plays that I like but to see what I'm actually rolling it myself right there for free in the pinned comment so make sure to keep an eye on that in terms of how we're doing thus far into the NFL season pretty damn good let me drop a cha-ching from the soundboard there we profit in that Thursday night football game thanks to the under hitting by a half point and then Xavier worthy with his TouchDown for plus 190 but the big story the big thing I want to jump into is that Eagles Packers Brazil game check that out can we pump in some damn proud noise a five and0 night now I tell you guys all the time we had a fantastic end season we're in the middle of or towards the end of a fantastic MLB season we started the NFL off hot I can't promise this every single week like I'm so much more of an average Sports better than this would indicate but hey we are hot let the cook cook you know what I mean so we'll take that 5 and0 night one more to chain right um in that Brazil game there but let's see if we can carry that momentum into this um obviously we're recording this a little bit earlier so we don't know how we're doing on our Sunday slate but yes we have our Sunday slate picks out as well but let's jump into this one here we'll start start on the spread side of things first hit that subscribe button hit that like button as well if you guys have been enjoying the content and or winning with us as well hit that like button so least you can do right free too you can hit the Subscribe button that's free to do as well and it helps out the channel a ton so go ahead and do that but let's jump into this so right now 49ers sitting at 4 and a half Point favorites this thing I'm sure you've heard a lot of other people talk about it has moved around I think um in the offseason this was at like 6 and a half maybe five and a half um I know it got to six at one point in favor of the 49ers now it's moved back down to 4 and a half it got to three actually at one point as well and that was before I think auk signed and then Trent Williams as well that's obviously a massive massive upgrade like everyone was talking about the IU contract situation getting that tackle that is massive for this team's uh you know performance so I think that that's why that bumped back up to four and a half him alone um but overall there's a couple things we want to note there are some injuries Christian mcaffry being the biggest one he's questionable if Christian mcaffrey doesn't play that throws a wrench into this thing entirely so obviously take that with a grain of salt um if he does play everything after this now is kind of based on that I'm assuming that he plays he's a little banged up but it's week number one I think he's looking like he's going to play so right now we're seeing a 4 and a half point spread like I said and I've seen everybody in their grandmother's ex-husband on the Jets and that's kind of the side I wanted to get to originally but now after seeing everyone see it so clearly and everything like that it's making me lean towards the 49ers now if I were to do it I might buy a point and a half we'd end up paying some juice probably like minus 40 for it but I'd get them at minus three just so we can stick to that key number push potential with the field goal that type of a thing so 49ers minus three is going to be my lean again everyone seems to love the Jets here and I get it um Bree Hall is going to be amazing this year Aaron roders should Aaron Roger if he stays healthy I mean like he should be a huge impact Garrett Wilson getting better they add U Mike Williams like I understand that this team should be better than last year but is everyone just glossing over the fact that this is a really good 49ers team still everyone seems to think they're going to regress because they lost in the Super Bowl they'll have the hangover blah blah blah can that happen sure but if everybody sees the Jets so clearly and this line isn't budging as much as we would think doesn't that mean sports are pretty confident in their stance right now with the 49ers so I'm going to trust that I'm going to lean towards the 49ers minus the three points um I obviously have two of the best defenses in the league playing one another here last year so I like the under as well um you have the I want to say the Jets were what middle of the pack in terms of true defensive scoring but when it came to uh you know passing yards they were one of the best pass defense getting to the quarterback tied for fifth in QB hur's third in tackles for loss seventh in sacks like this is a great Jets defense 49ers did not allow that many points third 17 and a half points a game they allowed um against them great third best against the Run passing not exactly their you know that their amazing spot they were middle of the league at 14th um they got the quarterback a lot third in QB hits seventh in sacks as well they're tied with the Jets so two really good defenses make me like the under as well here and honestly um if the if the Jets encounter you know a really good defense I don't know how effective to this degree Aaron Rogers will be Garrett Wilson will be um Bree Hall will be like this is still a very good uh 49ers defense so again for multiple reasons I do like the 49ers mostly that I feel like everyone seems to be missing something cuz correct me if I'm wrong everyone seems to see the Jets so clearly as you know not only to cover the this line but plus 180 underdogs it's like to me we're missing something if we think that's the case so give me the 49ers I'm kind of throwing out the idea of they're going to have the hangover and all that um and again I like the under as well because though these are two should be good offenses week one Monday Night Football lights are on let the defenses show up so let's get into a couple player props here guys before we do that I want to talk to you guys about sleeper because they do have a free Square now I said Aaron Rogers is going to be good this year he doesn't need to be need to be good with this Square 0.5 passing yards is all he needs to cash this one over on sleeper if You' have not checked out sleeper yet you are missing out on one of the best player prop apps out there all you have to do is combine two or more players into a slip you can win up to 100 times over there because each and every pick that you throw into your slip has its own Dynamic payout multiplier they don't just follow the fixed payout structure of uh just like every other app out there so like two for two equals 3x and that type of thing so go check out sleeper guys get this free Square signing up today and it'll also match your first deposit 100% go so go check out sleeper uh that's player prop number one Aaron Rogers 0.5 yards I think we can cash that one that doesn't actually count towards a record but still um obviously love that one let's jump into the player prop that I'm liking honestly the most this is probably out of all the picks we've talked about whether it's the spread total now we get into player props probably the play that I'm thinking is going to be um a final play here definitely and it's Brock py under 31 a half pass attempts here so like I mentioned everything that I've talked about in this video kind of depends on Christian mcaffry playing as does this one if Christian mcaffrey gets ruled out then I don't want to take an under of brass uh Brock py pass attempts right so uh this is predicated on Christian mcaffry actually playing but if mcaffrey does play I already talked about it last year we saw a great pass defense and by the way we're using outlier for this I'll tell you more about outlier in just a second but we saw a great pass defense right this the defensive tab great pass defense second in passing yards again they got to the quarterback plenty but where this team was not all that great was in the Run game 25th so uh if the 49ers really want the best chance of winning it's going to be to establish their best player Christian mcaffry both um you know in the red zone and three Downs all all together like get him going which is their game plan anyway so now you have the fact that they're probably going to do that anyways if he's not truly truly banged up now they have a team in which the only sort of defensive weakness that they can expose probably ends up being the Run game why are the 49ers going to say okay well let's beat this amazing defense by putting it in though Brock p is a good quarterback he's the least talented offensive piece you know what I mean whether it's Debo aou k mcaffrey you know birie is yes the quarterback but not the guy that's going to win the game for you all the time even though he's been fantastic I get it but he's not the playmaker that some of those other guys are so why not give it to the playmaker that can and expose that sort of bad part of the defense Brock py under 31 and a half pass attempts uh you can see he did this in seven of his last 10 games you can use the outlier insid tab 13 of his last 16 games now at the end of the year when mcaffrey was kind of banged up or you know starting to I guess not exactly perform like he was in the middle of the year they were relying on in a lot more and he did hit it in three of his last five games but I'm kind of trusting this it took him three games to ramp up right if we look at that 21 24 27 like not exactly the best look for a guy that's going to go out there and supposedly um throw for 32 attempts right I also considered his pass completions 21 and a half though like it's just as goodlooking but what I don't necessarily love is the idea that that's still involving mcaffrey and 21 that's a that's 10 pass completion less than the attempts would be so even if they dump off a couple times in a screen or something like that yes it's still an attempt but I don't think it's going to take as much percentage as that 21 and a half so I like the under here 312 pass completions and guys like I said this is the outlier tool they're great for props they have games you can even look into where the money is so we can look at where the money line money is where the percent of the bets are all that type of stuff I have a link for outlier in the pinned comment you're G get seven days free to try the tool seven days free you don't like it don't continue right but even after that it's only $19.99 per month for all of these tabs all four of these top tabs if you want to pay a little bit more you they have an EV tab a boost tab an Arbitrage and middle bets tab so those are really profitable tools as well but if you wanted the base membership it's still only $19.99 a month after that trial so go ahead and try that out guys again this is outlier Link in the pin comment first player prop that we're using it for is Brock P under 31 a half pass attempts now let's move into our second prop and it's going to be Bree Hall over5 touchdowns um I do think that you know this is a team that's going to navigate to the Red Zone a little bit better than they did in Seasons prior um due to the fact that they have Aaron Rogers so if we look at where they sort of rank Red Zone wise and efficiency wise right last year dead last in Red Zone efficiency but this 49ers defense wasn't all that tremendous just 16th in the league in terms of defensive efficiency in the red zone so I do think that with Aaron Rogers being added gar Wilson all those guys I mentioned getting a little bit better or playing for the first time um I think they'll be able to navigate towards the goal line a little bit more and let Bree Hall punch one in he should have so much volume this season he has two rookies backing him up and even last year when they had a guy like dvin cook right he still saw 60% of their Red Zone Rush share attempt so 60% there you'll like that obviously cook being the backup last year had a few of those but um he's also going to get tons of carries he had 60% of the rushes last year I don't see how he's not going to at least have a chance at a touchdown Red Zone targets wise he was behind Wilson Concklin and Gibson there um but still 10% of the targets he might be able to take a pass cuz he gets 20% of The Targets in general not outside of the Red Zone maybe he takes a screen pass and takes it all the way for a touchdown so plus 130 for Bree Hall to punch one in it can be receiving or it can be obviously rushing but this is plus 130 over on FanDuel it's plus 110 plus 105 plus 100 on other books so if you can get it early at plus 130 I think that that is the move so again to recap there um we're looking at Brock pie under 31 and a half pass attempts again keep an eye on the pinc com to see what we roll with Bree Hall over5 touchdowns and then in terms of what we have for the game pick I'm leaning towards the 49ers but I'll most likely if I do roll with it buy that point and a half pay a little bit more juice get it to the key number of three so minus three and then an under of 43 and a half maybe there's a world in which we can do like a same game parlay where we get that spread lower and make that total higher and go with Niners maybe even money line with a higher total kind of like a teaser type of a thing so keep an eye on the pin comic guys that is all I have for you in today's video make sure you guys are following me on Instagram cuz we're posting some touchdown scores we had saquon and Jaden Reed in that game on Friday and both of those cash then we had Xavier worthy and Z flowers who was that close to scoring Lamar Jackson missed him we almost cashed both of those we did score with Xavier worthy so we're posting some fun videos over there on Instagram as well but yeah that's all I have for you guys appreciate all of the support as of late we've gotten a couple comments about like um a lot of these picks so far to start the year are I feel or I think and that type of thing and and yeah honestly like there is a lot of like feel and I think this what happened in the beginning of the year because we don't have this year's data or stats or what we've seen to go off of right so there is a huge factor of just using last year's data and all that that isn't always as solid as current data so as we progress throughout the season we're going to have more and more to offer so very very excited about that and uh last thing if you made it this far in the video video go ahead and comment 12 you made it through the whole video and I appreciate the hell out of you guys we'll catch you guys in the next one all right peace out [Music]