There’s a lot of hoopla
about age these days. But not for me. [GUNSHOT] See that guy in the red shirt? That’s Allan Lichtman,
77-year-old Allan Lichtman. And he’s racing in the
qualifiers for the Senior Olympics. But there’s another kind of
race Allan’s just as qualified for. “Allan Lichtman.” “Allan Lichtman.” “Professor Allan Lichtman.” “Who has correctly
predicted—” “—almost every presidential
election since 1984.” And today Allan Lichtman is
ready to tell us who’s going to win in 2024. [MUSIC PLAYING] You see, you may think
Allan’s just a jock. “Well, I was a steeplechase
champion in the 1970s.” “His name is Dr.
Allan Lichtman.” But he’s actually
kind of a nerd. A history professor and
a quiz show champion. These days, he’s on a
different kind of winning streak. To make his presidential
predictions, Allan’s model ignores the
polls and the pundits. “It hinges on 13 keys that
I developed in 1981 with my geophysicist friend,
Vladimir Keilis-Borok. It’s based on 120 years of
presidential election outcomes before then.” Told you. He’s a nerd. Allan’s model was one of the
few that called it for Trump in 2016. “Donald Trump is
going to win.” And in 2020, Allan
got it right again. “Trump will lose
the White House. The race was tight, but
the keys were right.” So let’s get to how
these keys actually work. “They are 13 big-picture,
true-false questions that tap into the strength and
performance of the White House party. And only two keys have
anything to do with the candidates.” But Allan, 2024 is an
unprecedented election year. Can your 13 keys
really call it right? “The keys absolutely
will work. They are the constant northern
star of political prediction.” All right. Time to run these
keys and find out who will be the next president
of the United States, according to Allan. “But first, let me change
into something a little more comfortable.” [GUNSHOT] No. 1, the
White House party gained House seats
between midterm elections. “The Democrats did better
than expected in 2022, but they still
lost House seats. So the key is false.” Remember, a false key
is good for Trump. No. 2, the incumbency key. The sitting president is
running for re-election. “Biden withdrew from the race,
costing the Democrats this key. It is false.” Wait, you’re saying it would
have helped the Democrats if Biden stayed in? “If Biden stayed in, they
would have salvaged this one key. That’s all.” Hmm, OK. Moving on, for now. No. 3, the
White House party avoided a primary contest. “The Democrats finally
got smart and united overwhelmingly behind
Vice President Harris. So the key is true.” A true key. That moves Harris off
the starting block. No. 4, there’s no
third-party challenger. “R.F.K. Jr. has dropped out
of the race and no other third- party candidate is anywhere
close to the 10 percent polling threshold
needed to turn this key. It’s true.” Four keys in and
it’s neck and neck. Let’s keep going. No. 5, the short-term
economy is strong. “Look, despite all the
loose talk about a so-called vibecession, the economy
is not in recession. So this key is true.” No. 6, long-term
economic growth during this presidential term
has been at least as good as the last two terms. “Growth during the Biden term
is far ahead of growth during the previous two terms. So this key is clearly true.” No. 7, the White House
has made major changes to national policy. “Rejoining the Paris
Accords on climate change, the CHIPS bill, the
infrastructure bill, the Inflation Reduction
and climate change bill. Clearly, the key is true.” No. 8, there is no
sustained social unrest during the term. “There have been
sporadic protests, but nothing approaching
the massive, sustained social unrest
needed to turn this key. So it’s true.” But schools are just
going back to session. With new protests,
couldn’t this key flip? “Yes, there are a lot of
protesters upset with Biden’s policies in the Middle
East, but now, with Harris, not Biden, front and center,
that has dampened social unrest.” No. 9, the White House
is untainted by scandal. “Oh, my favorite
key, the scandal key. And Republicans have
been trying for years to pin a scandal on President
Biden and come up empty. So the key is true.” But come on, Allan. Biden’s horrific
debate performance, questions about his
age, Hunter Biden, doesn’t any of that count? “No. There has to be at least
some bipartisan recognition of actual corruption
that implicates the president himself
and not a family member. So the key remains true.” So two false and
seven true so far. Looking pretty good
for the Democrats. We have four keys
left, all of which would have to be false
for Trump to have a path. No. 10, the incumbent party
candidate is charismatic. “This is a very
high threshold key. You have to be a once-in-
a-generational, broadly inspirational candidate. Harris has not
met that standard. So this key is false.” No. 11, the challenger
is uncharismatic. “Some people think
Donald Trump is a god, but he only appeals
to a narrow base. So that key is true.” But wait, that means — “The Democrats will hold on
to the White House and Kamala Harris will be the next
president of the United States.” But wait a sec, Allan. We still have two keys left. The foreign policy keys? “You’re right. Foreign policy is tricky,
and these keys could flip. The Biden administration is
deeply invested in the war in Gaza which is a humanitarian
disaster with no end in sight. But even if both foreign
policy keys flipped false, that would mean that there
were only five negative keys, which would not be enough
for Donald Trump to regain the White House.” So I guess that means you’re
standing by your prediction. “Kamala Harris will be the
next president of the United States. At least, that’s my
prediction for this race. But the outcome is up to you. So get out and vote.” Well, I guess that
settles that race. But what about the
one we started with? “Well, I won some medals. I didn’t get hurt. And I qualified for the 2025
National Senior Olympics. Not bad for a
77-year-old, huh?” [MUSIC PLAYING]