welcome to the college football Survivor show where playoff survival is always on the line here's shahan jaraja and bobc hayeri hey everybody it's a college football Survivor show I'm bobc hayeri with my co-host shanan J araja national college football writer for CBS Sports we are always glad to have you joining us and being part of this conversation we're recording this on Thursday morning instead of our usual Wednesday afternoon spot because like some kind of pressant vision we're like Haz or Paul tradies we are the leis alibes of college football and apparently for saww last night's Revelation that conference realignment is back on the menu plus there are some important games for the college football playoff race coming up this weekend we will touch on those as well as we are the Survivor show but before we dive in let me remind you you can find us on X and Tik Tok at CFB Survivor show where we have video highlights of the Show run polls and listen to your feedback please take a moment to like rate and subscribe to us wherever you get your podcast but first things first the Pack 12 well it never left I want to say the Pack 12 is back but the pack two is now the six pack in some sort of way so I love it it's entirely on brand for Pack 12 after dark the news broke last night late last night that the remaining pack two comprising of course Oregon State and Washington state had we're going to bring in and this morning it was confirmed at like 6:00 a.m. Pacific time again I love how the timing of all of this they confirmed that they are going to be poaching four of the teams from the current Mountain West those are Boise State Colorado State Fresno State and San Diego State so we're going to have six states all together maybe this should be the pack state but this move comes 11 days after there was an announcement that the Pack 12 in Mountain West had failed to agree to extend a scheduling partnership they had until the 2025 season um you know at the time it occurred they were saying it was about money that the the the Pack 12 wasn't happy with the idea of spending $14 million for these games which is a little bit higher than the average rate to schedule would typically be a non-conference opponent um and then the Mountain West felt it had leverage against the Pack 12 well H so one of these situations honestly there were rumors at the time that perhaps the this was a sign the Pack 12 was looking to finally grab some of those teams because from what we understood that deal penalized taking individual teams but not if you took all the teams out of the Mountain West however clearly that wasn't something the Pack 12 wanted to do so now here we are in the situation now just again to put it in a little bigger context the kind of abrupt you know destruction of the Pack 12 put them in an interesting situation you had two teams left the NCAA does not allow you to have a two- team conference you have to have a minimum of eight teams to count as a conference however given the circumstances they gave the Pack 12 a two-year grace period to figure out what they're going to do by all accounts it seemed like the uh the two teams left were going to simultaneously figure out if they can get an invitation to one of the remaining P4 conferences or backfill probably with the Mountain West as we're seeing now and reassemble the conference into an eight team conference but of course right now it's the the pack six they need two more teams now we can start from there all of that Shan how are you doing like I just wanted to set this up because this is this is a big story that kind of came well didn't come out of nowhere just the timing it's like oh we're already doing this you know I thought this would be something we talking about in December yeah I was hoping that we could make it through a football season without setting everything on fire uh I was also frankly like just for the purposes of like not blowing up the sport again I was kind of like huh it would be nice if those two schools just ultimately joined the Mountain West or or merged in a sort of complete way because then it would be over right like then there'd be no Loose Ends necessarily left now we've got a thousand loose ends that are going to have a huge impact not just on the Pack 12 not just on the Mountain West but on Conference USA potentially the American Athletic Conference potentially the Sun Belt potentially FCA yes in division 2 and division three like this is kind of at least in the lower levels setting off another chain reaction in so many ways and it's funny I was working on a story involving one of these teams I think it'll be out by the time that this podcast comes out a feature on Colorado State coach Jay norell uh I don't think that we're gon to get the SEO bump of uh of people talking about Colorado State's coach the way that maybe we hoped in advance of the game against Colorado but I it was a good story you should still check it out over at CBS sports.com but I was up at night because I'm still somehow a college student at heart doing work at 11:30 p.m. uh the night before the assignment is due and then this news breaks and uh it is just when I say that there was no indication that it was coming in this timeline I mean there was no indication it would be coming this soon it's it's week three in fact Washington State and Oregon State are about to play rivalry games against Washington and Oregon right like like we're about to head into a big football weekend and now uh For Better or Worse we have to kind of sit back and talk about this now it is it is I think uh in a funny way kind of good timing for the schools that are moving because yeah all of them have some like Big Time moments either last week or this week I mean Fresno State even gave Michigan a handful in their week one game Boise State of course like was the better team against Oregon just last week now you have the Oregon State Oregon game and Washington Washington State so like there is a lot of attention Colorado Colorado State of course weeking on CBS so like there is a lot of attention on these schools right now so maybe that's part of the timing of it but I like I I I know that they want to get this settled and I I remember talking uh I was at the uh the fascinating Pack 2 after dark event over in Las Vegas of course uh for I didn't say for the entire thing now I wish I guess I'd stayed a little bit longer than I did but uh you know I just talked to people and the thing that they kept saying was we just want this to be over we want to know we can be whatever group of five we can be Mountain what but but like can we just figure it out can we not be these two teams weirdly sitting here in Lim uh this is a first step towards that um I I wish that it wasn't a first step that took place on well September 11th frankly but uh I I do wish that I I am glad that we're starting to get a little bit of clarity now the most interesting question to me I think heading into the next couple of weeks and months how will this new league and let's let's assume that they add two more uh you know high-profile group of five teams I think that that's the way to think about this it's Callen Stanford would obviously be great fits to come back but they are tied in to the acc's grants of Rights just like Florida State and Clemson they'd have to pay hundreds of millions of dollars to get out of it as far as we know but when let's just say for argument sake that it's like UTSA and you know whoever to Lane I don't know I I'm just I'm just speculating right now I'm curious how much that league is valued by television partners because there's two pieces to this the American Athletic Conference has a television contract that pays approximately $7 million a year though I will mention too that contract was signed when Houston UCF and Cincinnati were still a part of the league and and SMU I guess but then you look at the Mount of West I mean their contract is like a million dollars they they don't get paid very much for television rights so the question is is this going to be a situation where this new league that per se Cuts some of the Dead weight uh from the Mountain West will they be able to push to $1 million will they be able to push to $20 million per School per year I think that's sort of the decisive question about whether this Venture is going to be a success no I think that's a great that's a great point you know one thing I just want to say the only thing I can think about the timing is given the fact that we're getting the uh the apple cup and the Civil War you know those rivalry games for the two remain remaining Pack 2 members this suddenly gives those those games a lot more spice um but that's it's still qu I still am surprised though it still doesn't it's the only way I can possibly legitimize dropping that news now but as for where the conference is going to go I agree I think they've only added four teams because they're hoping somehow K and Stanford will come along I mean I believe the numbers are because even though they decided not to renew the deal between the Mountain West and the Pack 2 it's not it hasn't expired it would expire you know July 2025 when you get that kind of academic calendar uh sports calendar reset so by all accounts and numbers say they're GNA perhaps a Pack 12 which of course got money from the departing members they basically settled and said like fine you two can just keep all of this money just just stay out of our hair it means they're going to have to pay out what might be something in the realm of a100 million $10 million just to get those four teams from the Mountain West to join them so they're already on the hook for some money don't know how that grant of rights works for the two the three additional teams I mean SMU is also part of it obviously it would be enforced the exact same way that's that's my you imagine it's impossible basically for Stanford I wonder if they're hoping that K and Stanford will become free because of the continual you know Side Story that's also going I mean we say there's no conference realignment we all knew Florida State and Clemson are in the middle of trying to blow up their conference you know um in case of Florida State apparently the product on the field as well but you know they're trying to to get out and they're hoping that if that that happens maybe Cal and St because there was a rumor when before they joined the ACC that Cal and Stanford were actually and Stanford in particular was looking to try and rebuild the Pack 12 before I think they just finally said like okay this is too crazy let's just join the ACC I could see them wanting to do that um I know from contacts within the Mountain West that the assumption is the next team up would probably be if K and Stanford aren't possible would be UNLV which kind of fits because they're a team on the rise not just the product on the field but ever since they went from samboy to Alle Legion which is that fantastic facility suddenly they're a little more of an attractive you know they're in a Major Market they're an attractive team and if they get going you know like San Diego State there they could be one of those perennial sleeping Giants that could arise um but at the same time I mean it it's interesting to see this I don't know if they could ever put together a conference that will make them a P5 because if we're thinking about you know college football playoff with the obvious Survivor show I don't know if they're going to do anything else other than create a g6th uh or a six uh uh kind of team group of six team because uh conference because I'm not sure if any of these teams that they had could could Elevate them even if even if sta Stanford and Cal come back and I'm not saying they're not uh P4 caliber teams they have a history a recent history of being you know Championship quality teams at least winning their conference well maybe not kale but at least winning their conference and getting into New Year's six bowls or high-end bowls it's hard to still see if that if those four teams would be enough to to to keep them in that race so it's kind of an interesting it's like a fight for survival and the trickle down as you said is going to be fascinating because Mountain West I don't know if they're going to have to now look to the Big Sky you know some of those attractive teams you have there the the Montana schools or the Missouri Valley where you have the Dakota schools that are obvious pretty solid um it's been interesting to watch these first couple of weeks as as schools from those two conferences have been either winning or coming awfully close like we saw Idaho what they did for Oregon we actually just saw one of the South Dakota not South Dakota State give Wisconsin their handful this past weekend so the those teams seem to be ready to kind of move to the G5 it's just been a big question if if they ever would I mean historically North Dakota State said we're good we're good just being the kings of of FCS but things change you know it' be interesting to see that well and I think that there's an interesting way to think about this right i' I've talked to to people of course at the FCS level historically quite a bit um especially during my time at Dave Campbell sex football and one of the things that I heard repeatedly from people around those programs is there isn't necessarily a whole lot of value if you're North Dakota State or South Dakota state to being FBS uh for a couple reasons and and I'll make a distinction and come back uh to to my expertise in the state of Texas in just one second if you're a North Dakota State and you move up levels the level of like pure Financial investment that you're going to be able to put in is going to be on the lower end of the FBS it's not going to be last but the question is from an investment perspective a pure investment perspective especially in an era where like collectives and major nil and all this stuff are going to be factors rev share all these things like let's just say that you're in investment is similar to New Mexico right or similar to Wyoming like what is that doing for you necessarily from a competition perspective you know you because this is a team that's been able to build up because of the uh the legacy of this program their developmental track record they've been able to build up rosters but so much of their pitch is well you can come here and win and get put into the NFL so so that Dynamic would be on for a North Dakota or South Dakota stat the other piece of this is that think about sort of the value of sports big picture uh to colleges more than anything it's a student recruitment tool that's why college sports exists uh the the model for different schools is different right some some literally it's we want our brand out there uh Notre Dame right that was like the big one is is like they barnstormed around the country and people got to know who Notre Dame was and applied to the school and elevated their ranking because of pure uh competition at the highest level but that's not really the main thing that North Dakota State or South Dakota state are trying to accomplish and and more importantly elevating themselves to nominally being FBS doesn't necessarily Aid in those goals right you're in a situation where most of the kids who go to these schools are kids from the region you know whether it is the actual dtas whether it is Minnesota or other Midwestern states like most people are going there for a reason so I I would make the distinction to a place like Texas where you have such a saturated Market of universities uh I'm in I'm in Dallas right so a great example of this is if you go you know hour and a half Southwest you hit Charlton State University if you go northeast an hour you hit Tex A&M Commerce uh you know you go a couple hours down I35 you hit Texas State there's North Texas there's all these schools and so the way that people view these schools like I mean it does change the way that you're perceived if you are in FBS versus being in FCS or in D2 right like Charlton moved up because they want to be considered with the you know I mean they eventually I think want to be an FBS so that they can be considered with the north texases so that they can be considered with the utas the Texas States as opposed to the Midwestern State universities or West Texas A&M you know so so I think that the model just has to be looked at a little differently from a lower school perspective so um all that to say so we are going to see movement not just in the Mountain West I mean again this is all speculation right now this is not this is not uh reported as yet this is this just happened 12 hours ago but what I would imagine happens is okay let's say that uh that this new Venture the the new pack 12 is able to let's say that they're able to swing big they get Memphis and they get to Lane right like let's just say that's possible uh again we're gonna have to kind of wait to see whether the money is right because you have to to get an AAC school like you gota you gotta outdo the seven mil a year that they're going to be earning with their television contract let's just say that that happens let's just say that happens that means that the remaining Mountain West schools uh eight of them would have they'd be okay to be eligible as they are but most likely they're going to try to backfill most likely they're going to say hey is there any value in a Conference USA school is there any value in any of the other AAC schools that maybe got uh you know left behind by the two who would leave well then all of a sudden Conference USA decides that they have to backfill and they are much more likely to pull from the FCS especially Southern States in the FCS and then the FCS will pull from you know lower FCS and those schools will pull from D2 and by the way the my beloved lonar conference is once again on the chopping block uh in division two so all this to say like this is there's a way that this could have happened that could have been relatively effortless and this is the opposite of that you know it's funny bring up the Lone Star conference because it made me think of a particular scenario on the FPS level that could occur because when the lonar conference took over some of those Northeast schools Northwest schools pardon me that were kind of isolated as as football dried up over there the team that got kind of left in the Lurch was that one random D2 Canadian School salmon Frasier because they just they were I they didn't want to offer them because it's like that's a that's a whole headache the to even make that team work to begin with now in the Mountain West there is one team that is football only that is in kind of a precarious position in all of this and it's why because they're watching all of this and they're not dumb they know the situation you know oddly enough Ken Stanford would make it more attractive for Hawaii only because Olympic sports are what they're actually good at on the islands and and obviously K and Stanford especially Stanford are Olympic uh Olympic sports you know Kings and they would love that kind of that option but I think I always think of what happened to the Sun Belt about you know five six years ago when they decided you know we're going to have to condense down and then they built up again but to do that they pushed out two teams they pushed out New Mexico state which was football only and Idaho which was football only we watched New Mexico State go through some tough independent years and eventually find themselves in Conference USA and we watched Idaho become the first team to step down in the recent memory and recent history to step down to FCS where they've been fine they've actually been great um I'm wondering if what happens to to Hawaii and all of this I think that's going to be a concern I've heard speculation that they might consider dropping down to FCS only because oddly enough that would maybe make more money sense for them because the rest of their teams are all in the big West as yeah the big West and then it's funny because it's confusing Oregon and uh Oregon State and pardon me Washington State the rest of their teams are in the Western uh athletic or the Western West Coast Conference get confused because I remember the old whack I always want to blur those together so I'll be curious to see where they go um they've done the FBS independent thing I don't know how how kind of how sellable that is anymore um Hawaii's legis pays 16% of Hawaii's annual athletic budget so they're going to be a big state in this it's fascinating to see what goes over there but to me there's two funny scenarios that could still come out of this somehow there's enough of a delay that Boise State Colorado State Fresno State and San Diego State end up as voting members of the Pack 12 and they'll remember especially Boise State and Fresno State how anytime they would get mentioned for Pack 12 expansion the thing would be said you know the California schools just don't see them as an academic fit I mean USC and UCLA are part of this but they're not in the conversation anymore and I would love them to say you know call and Stanford you're not an academic fit for us anymore we don't think you belong that would be the perfect come upins or I'd love to see this all work out Cal sometime C and Stanford rejoin and one of those teams win the ACC on their way out the door because that would be the most hilarious that would just be the the icing on the cake that would be the cherry on top if somehow Cal walks away with their Twitter Warrior years and all of that with the uh with an ACC Championship I would hang that Banner above every other because it would just be so delightful but my goodness I cannot wait to see where this goes this is this is an ongoing story um who knows where it's going to go uh we didn't expect to be talking about I don't think anyone did but here we are conference expansion is back on the menu well and and I want to take this to the playoff just for one second uh so when the Pack 12 lost 10 of its 12 members uh they were removed as an auto bid conference uh in the college football playoff right it was supposed to be a six and six now it's a 5 and seven because of that and I think it's probably unlikely that they would get an auto bid again right um they're probably going to be competing with the group of five Champion for that spot whenever they get back up to eight teams in 2026 now I one I think that this really is a brutal position to put the other group of five leagues in right like this is this is I think like if you're a Sun Belt team and there's all of a sudden maybe like a G5 super conference coming up like that's this was the opening in so many ways for uh for these other schools to potentially have a chance from the Sun Belt I mean Northern Illinois we're talking about this year from the Mac well if there's a true kind of group of five Super League that comes out of this I think that that's brutal for what the playoff means the other thing too that I want people to remember is that the contract for the college football playoff is up before the 2026 season so what that means is that there's no guarantee that anything any auto bid any size is still written into this how does it impact things if when we're heading into 2026 there's true chaos at the group of five level I I think that look I I think it's very likely that there will still be that one G5 access spot but this could potentially shake things up quite a bit and and I'll I'll tell you what I think it was Ralph Russo who had the Tweet uh earlier that was basically like um let me find it oh yeah this was always the best move forward for the pack two to create a best of the rest conference and make it streamlined so there would be fewer mounts to feed H sounds like that might be appealing to the biggest brands in other leagues someday so this is I think something that the Pack 12 better be careful about because they're kind of creating the model for the big schools to leave everybody else and actually testing it out to see how it goes so look we we'll see there's a lot of moving pieces at this point like we said we're recording this at 1202 Central Time on a Thursday and the schools join the League at 8: a.m. it's been 4 hours since this news was all announced but there are a lot of implications that I don't think people are ready for one one thing that I also just want to touch on is we've talked so much about the power five power four I think that we're in agreement that certainly the uh this new conference no matter what will not be considered a true power conference but I do think that we need to keep something in mind and we talked about this a little over the offseason college football is moving away from a pure halves have knots and it's moving to a spectrum of halves and have knots there's the power two the Big 10 and the SEC they have the most obviously they have way more than everybody else they're going to be making 70 plus million dollars per School per year to play college football there's the have quite a bits with the big 12 and the ACC they each make more than $30 million uh in television money just to play college football there is a place for a have some Below have notot right like there is a place for right now that's the American again they're making approximately $7 million per year in television money way more than every other uh group of five league so that there is a place to have a league that makes $14 million a year and is able to elevate itself in that way I I'm going to be fascinated to see how this all sort of works out I think at the end of the day the biggest distinction between being a power conference and not being a power conference is going to be having uh uh potentially a built-in Auto bid to the college football playoff if they keep it at five which I expect they will do that's kind of college football telling them we don't see you as the potential of being that I can't help but thinking and then at the very very bottom it's Yukon the uh independent school that has no real they're working on it we'll see where that goes there soon to be a big 12 school there soon to be I was about to say I they they should build a statue to BR Your Mark if that happens that's all I'm saying um you know I I think this is a good kind of transition I just want to say though the one thing it's so funny I feel bad if for Boise State only because they've had like 16 Seasons uh in the last 22 years where they've had double digit wins so you know it's not like they're a bad program you know I mean so it it'll be interesting to see where this goes and I I think it's fascinating I just I like the thought that you had I don't like the implication but I think it's a good thought that will we see the creation of of kind of super G5 conferences to kind of further stratify it um for now I'm willing to just look at this as the Pack 12 is just trying to survive trying to bring back at least two of the OG members and kind of still build up to 12 to to S to eight pardon me gosh math that wasn't my major but yeah no it's interesting to see where this goes you know when we get back from the break we're going to also just take a quick look at the biggest games coming up here in week three involving our uh playoff race here on the college football Survivor show the college football Survivor show where playoff survival is always on the line all right so all of that said you know as we said the Pack 12 the new pack 12 the new adventures the Next Generation however you want to look at it they are probably not going to be a uh a P4 conf or a power conference with an auto bid however we've got some interesting games this weekend um several of which we want to talk about what are what's what's one of those big games that's got to your attention right now yeah Alabama against Wisconsin is interesting and I think that there's a chance that maybe Wisconsin just can't hang that Alabama's just got athletes that Wisconsin can't keep up with but South Florida gave Alabama a lot of trouble last week and I don't think that it's even necessarily going to be just about does Alabama win this game it's also going to be how do they handle this game how do they how does the sequencing of this game go uh because last week I think the final score ended up being like 42-6 or something like that in the south Florida win but like it was a completely misleading score this was a game in the fourth quarter if Alabama goes on the road and Wisconsin's able to move the ball again them and their offense and their offensive line struggle against a pretty good Wisconsin defense that tells me that this Alabama team is not ready for prime time they're not ready for how competitive the SEC is going to be uh you know look we we kick out a contender every single week if this is a close game I I think that Alabama's got a real chance to be on the chopping block that's a great in point I mean I'm curious to see how do we see them look lethargic especially in the first half as they were kind of against South Florida um that's going to be Wisconsin's opportunity because they need to pounce I think really the deciding factor if Wisconsin's gonna have any shot Tyler van djk needs to play like he did a couple of seasons ago um not last season but a couple seasons ago for Miami and just kind of put some numbers up there but I'm not sure if if that's going to be possible against that Raw Talent of Alabama I'm not sure Wisconsin can stop the run so maybe I'm curious to see what we're I'm confident enough in the Alabama defense I'm sure that's going to keep them in the game and is probably just going to let them figure out whatever they're going to figure out on offense but what I'm most looking on is how that Alabama offense pops up again in this game I want to see I want to see them put up a lot of points and you know nothing against the Badgers but if we're going to keep them as part of the uh as part of our survivor group at least for now I think you're absolutely right we have to see Alabama look a little bit more like the uh the kind of scary Alabama the team that they historically have been and despite I mean it's great that they're going up to Camp Randall I love that it's going to be a fun atmosphere it's the kind of games we've always liked to see especially you know when they're not neutral sight games but yeah I'm curious to see how they can do it I I mean what what would be what would be the big what what areas of the Alabama you know it could be offense or defense I know I'm focusing on offense but what areas would you like to see the most Improvement in to feel more confident in where kayn deor is first year is going well I think that I want to see some passing efficiency I pick Jaylen milro as my preseason Heisman favorite and technically his stats are still good right like technically he's thrown for 400 yards completing 66% of his passes five touchdowns no interceptions he's obviously run for four touchdowns as well but like it hasn't been very consistent right like it hasn't been very effective in strong doses I need to see more passing efficiency and consistency from this team and they certainly have the receivers to make it happen but like it's cool that Ryan Williams can just break off a play anytime he wants but that doesn't actually tell me all that much about Alabama's offense or Alabama as a team I also want to see them just protect better some of this really does have to do with that Jaylen mro and some of it's his fault some of it he has to kind of just sit back and like just work the pocket a little more than he does but I I really need to see them kind of take that step uh in terms of just having a consistent cohesive passing offense against a team that obviously I mean Luke Luke vickle has a strong background in secondary coaching uh like I I want to see what what they're going to do against a secondary that's pretty good yeah I think exactly and it is it's going to be interesting to see on both sides because again both both secondaries are actually pretty good I mean Wisconsin's a little overlooked I think and and they were able to they would be able to be an interesting factor in that um heading on to another game we wanted to talk about and this is the rank game I'm sure everyone expected we'd be talking about weeks ago months ago number 24 Boston College heading to number six Missouri there are complaints that I think are warranted that perhaps game day went to the wrong Columbia this upcoming weekend um but here we get I I I'm going to say I'm not entirely shocked that BC is looking pretty good I I had some faith in Bill O'Brien and I know I went on the record saying that it sounded a little crazy but here we are you know I'm not saying they're goingon to win it all yet but Thomas castanos you know will be interesting to see how he does against that missou pass defense because that's been a big factor for the Tigers the offense obviously is excellent as well we've talked about that they've got a good manager and Brady cook couple of new running backs to to kind of replace in aggregate the uh their uh their excellent uh running back from last season who's now in the NFL as well as obviously Luther bir Luther Luther biron I third what a day um but at the same time I'm not sure how do you what do we make of this game what are your thoughts well this is going to be a great test I think for the Missouri defense which by the way Missouri's defense through two games has been really really good they've actually allowed zero points so far granted you know it's against it's against smurray State and buffalo but zero points is zero points right like not even having a breakdown not giving up a single a single issue uh Cory baton their new defensive coordinator replacing Blake Baker and I think he's done a pretty good job so far if you look at some of the advanced stats I mean they're top 10 and EPA per Rush allowed top 11 and EPA per dropback allowed like they they do a good job of down to down putting their uh their offense in good positions so I do think that this is going to be the first real test and they play a quarterback in Thomas castalanos who just Causes Chaos right like that's that's what he does and the other thing that you look at when you talk about Boston College as a high powerered team is that they do a really good job in the Red Zone they do a really good job of converting long drives into touchdowns especially because of the Dual threat ability of Thomas castalano so Missouri is going to win this game I I think think that they probably will win it relatively comfortably but I want to see from this Missouri team can you continue to be consistent and effective defensively especially in contain where Thomas castalanos is so good uh and can you also again look Boston College I think that Bill O'Brien's done a really good job so far calling games and just getting teams moving side to side coming at it from different angles using rpos you know even some option concepts with the with a rushing quarterback can Missouri be prepared for this and make it a non-factor they're not going to hold Boston College to zero points obviously but I would much rather see Missouri win a game 27- 10 than get into a shootout and win 49- 39 I I know that they can score points but I want to see them have a chance to do it with their defense I think that's a great way to look at it and also I forgot to mention BC has a good running back also backing up castalanos with in Trish on Ward so it'll be really interesting to uh to see how these two stack up but I agree mizou seems to be the stronger team but if I'm missou I'm happy that this game has ended up looking way tougher than they expected and they're hosting it um then going on the road of course for the uh the other end of their New England sampler at um so again they they they they got the right home in home situ not home at home but they got the right reverse situation where they're traveling this season you know the next we wanted to talk about is of course number n Oregon at Oregon State formerly called the Civil War but I haven't heard of better name for it the Platypus trophy I know is one of the old things that they they were able to find years and you know dig up from hiding years ago but it's an interesting game I mean part of the thing is we're all waiting to see what the heck's happened with Oregon Oregon State you know again it's a rivalry game we have actually seen upsets in this series in recent memory where one team has absolutely shocked the other but all of that said it's happening in Corvalis can or I'm actually curious to see my my side storyline here can Oregon manage to win and yet again play themselves lower in the ranking because they they've gone now they're at number nine will they manage to play themselves out of the top 10 while being three and0 I I kind of curious to watch that every year we always get a team that seems to get by week after week and we're just waiting to see is this going to be the week where they they fall flat I I don't know man is it Oregon this season but what are your thoughts on this game I I assumed that this was going to be a huge mismatch coming into the year right like I just thought Oregon State lost so much of what they did on both sides of the ball um you know obviously they just like I I just didn't think that they had very much to work with but I think that I might have underestimated Trent Bray uh promoted from defensive coordinator at to head coach this is a team that has that last week they stuffed San Diego's state in a locker they completely held them underwater and granted I mean we don't know how good San Diego State is at this point but I think that that's still not nothing you know to to completely outduel Shawn Lewis and hold him to zero points in under 200 total yards and they've gotten more from their offense than I expected so far jaavan McCoy kind of been the main guy back there at quarterback but like jam Griffin and Anthony Hankerson at running back have have done a little something something and they still have pieces here on the offensive line that were part of a really good group uh in 2023 and then you have Oregon who has been such a disaster up front especially on the defensive line can Oregon State actually put together a game plan that that is able to fully take advantage of it I I mean one of the big advantages that Oregon state has coming into this matchup uh and I mean this with all the love and respect in my heart is that Oregon State isn't playing for anything useful this year the only thing that they have to do is ruin other people's seasons and they'll get chances to do it Oregon this week uh they also go and play on the road at Boise State in the final week of the Season like there's there's going to be some chaos man there's gonna be some fun but like this we talk about Super Bowl games I mean like Oregon state is basically not playing another game that they care about all year long in 2024 so if I'm Trent Bray I I am spending my entire offseason my entire couple first weeks of the Season leading up to this game because if you pull this upset they're going to build you a damn statue in Coralis after you know one season as a not really in a conference team but just from a matchup perspective again it's it's going to be that Oregon State front and the way that they attack from angles against an Oregon offensive line that has not been up for the challenge so far Oregon's gotten beat up quite a bit and they're waiting for some guys to get healthy and and frankly I haven't seen a full uh injury report to see if they're going to get all of their starters back on the offensive line but I don't think Dylan Gabriel's handled pressure very well so far and it's not all his fault like PE people are like oh well you know we should just bench the quarterback and that would fix no it it would not even a little bit like they have major issues they got to run the ball better it's most of it just frankly is an offensive line issue but but Oregon's getable Dylan Gabriel is getable I think if you're able to to bring some pressure and and cause some issues for them them I I don't know if Oregon State can both hold Oregon to few enough points and also score enough to win this game but I think that this is going to be a game that Oregon fans are like why did we schedule this in the third quarter it is and it's almost like the worst time of year for them because they're still working it out and Oregon State seems to have come out surprising everyone and I I was thinking about that too we were also I think just as National media distracted by Jonathan Smith leaving for Michigan State taking Aiden Charles with him and then dju went to Florida State uh you know Damen Martinez was being you know everyone knew he was leaving and obviously now he's at Miami to say nothing again Alis Balden at Texas you know ailia Arnold Eon mccarus Arnold also joining the USC Trojans and being a big factor in what knocked off LSU in uh in week one yet apparently they've been able to put together a team that can win a team that can can be challenging um I am going to say though that boys game is also a preview of a future conference game I mean I love now that we we can actually now reframe it all um and of course you know I'm going to say though the the the pack two championship is the week before that that's going to be the Wu Oregon State game I think that's going to be a very easygoing game but at the same time you know we're now gonna have Oregon State being the villains when they show up for some of their other games against the Mountain West teams Air Force isn't going to be happy to have them over San Jose State isn't going to be happy those are teams that are like Nevada they're going to be like oh yeah you're the guys that broke us apart you know again so the the Beavers are in an interesting position they're beloved but to a very small subset of of college football fans are now the villains along with the cougs it's it's a beautiful it's a beautiful tapestry of of where college football has taken us um you know before we before we wrap up I just want to bring up a couple of other games unfortunately we're recording this it'll probably the gamees order is tonight there's this is an interesting week where there are I would argue four games for serious important to Serious G5 competitors we've got tonight which will be resolved by the time you see this Arizona State's heading to Texas State in a game against someone who I know you Shan are are a big fan of as a G5 Darkhorse Contender not only to win the sunb belt but get that spot on Friday we have UNLV which has been looking awfully strong going to Kansas which is still Reeling I think off of that loss last week to Illinois um Memphis is going still play for a state the luster of that game is a little off but Memphis still needs to win in Tallahassee for them to be credible as a potential G5 playoff Contender and then I'm gonna still put tulan in this because they had a respectable loss to K State and they're going to Oklahoma part of the wiie fritz sampler that the Sooners are now facing because they had a tougher than expected game against the team that was considered to be along with Arizona State the two worst teams in the Big 12 in the preseason poll surprise surprise Willie Fritz has got Houston challenging so I'm very curious to see how two lane does in Norman um and then one other game I just wanted to mention we do have I think one other Playoff relatively important game and that is two of the many Big 12 contenders number 20 Arizona on Friday is going to be at number 14 Kansas state which of those games has you most interested yeah the the Arizona Kansas State one is interesting because I think that uh I mean obviously it isn't a conference game but I think that for our purposes it's going to be an elimination game from playoff contention for these teams uh Kansas State of course has their their uh game against two lane last week that goes a little interestingly and I think that they need to reestablish themselves as showing hey no we are one of the top contenders in the Big 12 and Arizona has had a really slow start to the season with their game against New Mex New Mexico where they allow 39 points and then struggle to score the ball against rival Northern Arizona so this is a pro it game to me for both of these programs both these teams um and again it won't count towards the Big 12 standings but I think it's going to set the table in a lot of ways for what to expect from the Big 12 in 2024 so that would be my number one I'm and and I think that Tech stat Arizona state by the time you listen to this like you said uh it might have already happened I think it's going to be a fantastic game to teams that I think have been even better than I expected but I I do have like some morbid curiosity in Oklahoma 2 Lane like how bad is it right now at Oklahoma you know because they're gonna head into one of the tougher SEC schedules they play a lot of the best teams in the conference this year and Houston to me is probably substantially worse than what tane is now the question is tane might be not as good in some specific areas as Houston is right when it comes to especially UPF front like I don't know if they're going to have the defensive line the way that Houston did in this fast game but they also have a defensive coach in John sroll who knows how to take advantage of things and this is this is a compliment to the guy I'm talking about not a shot at the other guy they're GNA have the better quarterback in this game with Darien Mena in the way that he's playing right now and Jackson Arnold I think is is totally on track totally f but but Mena is way ahead of schedule he just outplayed Avery Johnson last week and frankly uh you know tan had a chance to win that game because Darren menel was so good so it's not going to be a game that actually has uh well I mean I guess it could have playoff implications down the road if taine is the team that comes out I think that'll win over Oklahoma would be enough I I don't know that Oklahoma necessarily has the goods to get into playoff contest but that's that's a game that I'm just gonna I'm gonna have one eye open just kind of looking over like h what's happening over there absolutely yeah I agree Oklahoma it's funny because Oklahoma isn't the school in this conversation that we're focusing on it's like well two lane does it you know and a a close loss to a Kansas State team that does well you know suddenly you're in the you're you're definitely in the picture my goodness um and then of course Oklahoma's next home game is hosting Tennessee it's like they just it's a tough it's it's tough sing for the Sooners that's all I got to say um well I think this is a good spot to wrap this up I just wanted to take a moment to thank all of you for listening and thank our producer Joey alberty be sure if you can like rate and subscribe to us wherever you get your podcasts you can find us on X and Tik Tok at CFB Survivor show he's sha J Roger you can find his work on cbssports.com and shanj Roger I'm bobc hayeri um part of the group that runs rcfb you know Reddit CFB I'm sure Texas State Bobcats Twitter was hilarious tonight uh as you watch them as if you watched last night game just for purposes that I'll say but on behalf of all of us thanks for listening the college football Survivor show where playoff survival is always on the line