2024 Missouri Football Preview | Luther Burden Leads No. 16 Tigers | Mizzou Has Playoff Potential

number 16 Missouri 2024 preview on good morning college football hello and welcome to episode 66 of good morning college football I am Nicholas Ian Allen of CFB Winning Edge in campus to Canton . thank you so much for joining us today for our uh preseason preview of the team rank number 16 in our CFB Winning Edge team strength power rankings the Missouri Tigers and maou coming off of uh excellent excellent year last season 11 and2 final record beat Ohio State in the cotton ball uh carried that momentum into the off season Eli drinkwitz and Company are tearing up the recruiting Trail the tigers are on Pace to sign uh maybe their highest ranked class in program history at least in the internet recruiting site era uh a lot of things really really pointed in the right direction for Missouri uh right now and uh expectations are higher than they have been in quite some time in Colombia heading into the 2024 season uh which we are 40 5 days away from week zero kicking off for uh the 2024 college football season and uh if you have not already we very much would appreciate you liking this video uh we very much would appreciate you subscribing to the campus deanton YouTube channel that is a great great help uh to us as we continue to ramp up for the upcoming season continue to try to grow get our uh great college football College fantasy football Debbie uh all kinds of great content in front of as many people as possible and part of that uh one of the things that we're very very proud of especially when it comes to college fantasy football the campus Danton cff guide 2024 cff guide is now available all 134 teams are featured full breakdowns more than 200 player profiles uh projections uh defense and special teams rankings all kinds of great stuff from your favorite members of the C2C cff team Jared pen Nate Maris Justice Chris K Chris Moxley Ethan sour I chipped in with some numbers but uh those who are much smarter and better at College fantasy football than me are the ones who are uh in charge of you know the full analysis uh digging into each of those player profiles adding context um and giving you hopefully the keys to a very very successful College fantasy football season drafts are going uh right now supplemental drafts in dynasties C2C leagues uh but of course a lot of redraft leagues kicking off very very soon as well so if you haven't already sign up to become a annual uh nil member and you'll get access to that guide also um it's available for $20 to non nil members so um it's absolutely the best version of the cff guide that campus to Canton has produced uh so far I was very proud to be asked to be a small piece of that but uh really really excited and proud of the product that the cff team has put out there so uh if you haven't already we very much would appreciate you uh checking that out but also you can join campus canton.com for as little as 299 per month get Discord access access to rankings on the site tons of written content uh tools all I mean just just tons and tons of great stuff um also for the the higher end of the spectrum uh if you're an all 22 or C2C Winning Edge tier member you'll get access to a lot of the sheets that we'll be using during this preview so our uh Team profiles uh our returning production database our stat projections are going to be official and and fully published uh in just a few days and so those will all be available as well to C2C Winning Edge and all 22 tier members okay so uh very very quickly before we dig into Missouri uh this time of the year we record this Wednesday July 10th we've seen some uh conference media days kicking off there will be a little bit more news uh in in the coming uh weeks I am imine before we get into the full uh Team preview not a ton coming out of Big 12 media days the the major story was of course Ali Gordon Oklahoma State running back his runin with the law uh few weeks ago and and there was plenty of speculation how would this impact his uh 2024 season will he be facing a suspension a lot of you know guesses that I saw were anywhere between maybe the first half of the first game uh to to maybe a game um in fact sounds like according to head coach Mike Gundy uh any discipline is going to be done internally and Gordon will not miss any of the 2024 season but another thing to watch out for in media days some teams will put out uh you know a very early preall Camp depth chart we will uh keep our eyes on those and especially as we get closer to fall camps opening you'll will see some changes reflected by uh what we learned coming out of media days coming out of those early practices so even though we're we're you know moving ahead with our uh team rankings and you know basing our previews on our current team strength power rankings uh those numbers do change the team strength ratings themselves because we do individual player ratings and and you know based on who's starting who's not um if there's a major injury that that pops up occasionally that will happen in the early days of fall Camp we'll learn something that you know maybe we didn't know prior or of course things can unfortunately happen during practices so uh keep an eye out our our power rankings will change probably not going to see huge huge movement unless it's a you know quarterback injury or something completely unexpected um but the uh the news that that we learn between now and and kickoff and even after the season you know kicks off of of course uh our rankings change quite a bit based on uh how performance uh plays out on the field so uh do keep that in mind but number 16 Missouri is the team we're going to discuss today and since we started CFB Winning Edge and our team strength power rankings back in 2020 or excuse me 2018 um I'm I am certain that this is the highest we have ever been on Missouri from a preseason standpoint uh expectations in Colombia are uh Skyhigh compared to what we're used to in Missouri has been a winning program for a long time been very competitive very consistent uh well maybe not consistence you know maybe not the best word but a competitive program that has you know often been middle of the pack and and sometimes a little bit lower especially since moving into the SEC but um as last season played out of course the Tigers became a very very dangerous team capable of beating frankly any team it played the end of the season had an opportunity uh on a a you know big stage in the bowl game to knock off one of the You Blue Bloods in college football Ohio state that Ohio State team not quite at full strength but um is a a team that's you know number one in our preseason power rankings and the last time it took the field uh it lost to Missouri so um Missouri ranks pretty uh high from a national standpoint and an SEC standpoint in returning production even though the tigers are not you know one of the the elite Recruiters in the SEC or in college football the way we calculate things adjusting uh our player ratings based on experience and production um mizou Stacks up pretty well especially at some key uh positions as far as our uh position and unit ratings go uh Eli drinkwitz our numbers respect the work that he has done on the field so his head coach rating uh pretty solid as well but um what are others saying about Missouri heading into the 2024 season uh we typically discuss you know there there are a few key pieces uh that we've referenced several times talking about NFL draft eligible quarterbacks of which Brady cook is one the returning starter at Missouri uh really established himself recently as a leader in that program the team rallied around him uh the the fan base took a little while perhaps and there was some discussion I remember last year Eli drink was talking about how uh he really wished that the Missouri fan base uh was as bought in on on Brady cook as the team seemed to be I think they are now based on last year's performance and and him coming back but the NFL the the talent evaluators um maybe not quite there yet so another good season for Brady cook maybe he's going to have an opportunity to Parlay that into a professional career um but right now still maybe you know flying a little bit under the radar uh but Missouri as a whole the the team uh is not and and you know from a college football standpoint uh David hail we've mentioned this piece in most every uh I think maybe every full team preview that we we've done so far this year um you know put a tiered system and and uh you know put all 134 FPS quarterback situations into slotted them into tiers uh he puts Missouri in tier three alongside Memphis Ohio State and ol Miss teams that return very experienced signal callers maybe not expected to be you know high-end Heisman Trophy caliber uh first round NFL draft pick type guys although Jackson Jackson Dart is definitely um getting a little bit of buzz in in that direction but uh quarterbacks that are solid though maybe not spectacular and hail of course um has pulled out you know at least one really interesting stat for each starting quarterback uh projected starting quarterback and and for cook he outlines reading here from the piece since week 11 of 2022 Missouri's cook has completed 65.3% of his passes averaged 7.7 yards per drop back and posted a 4.83 pass touchdown to interception rate uh the full list of others and he used a minimum of eight starts uh to to set you know as his criteria to do that to reach those benchmarks Jaden Daniels Heisman Trophy winner of LSU Bo Knicks first round NFL draft pick and and Heisman Trophy Contender last season Dylan Gabriel returned turns is one of the highest uh you know one of the top quarterbacks uh in college football from a fantasy standpoint he's he's definitely toward the top of the list usually number two in quarterback rankings uh and then uh Caleb Williams former Heisman Trophy winner number one NFL draft pick so Brady cook is in as David hail puts it Elite company with those numbers and you know might not be the most exciting quarterback to prot Talent evaluators might not even be the most exciting quarterback uh you know to to people who watch college football very closely but um he won a lot of football games has has emerged as a leader on a uh quality dangerous team uh and also uh the numbers show that that he is capable of playing at a very very high level and partly because of cook but also uh you know of course Luther Burton um some talented incoming transfers at running back on the offensive line on defense where uh maou has a few more uh holes to fill or at least potential trouble spots roster wise compared to the offense um beyond that a quite manageable schedule especially as far as SEC uh you know thinking about it goes um and Joel clatt recently in in the Joel clatt show outlined it quite well a piece that was written up by by Kaden Smith of on three quoted clatt uh who who ran through not only uh a list of you know how the the schedule sets up for Missouri which we'll show and we'll talk about here in just a little bit uh but most important potentially is who Missouri doesn't play quoting here from Joel clatt uh they do not play in their conference Georgia they do not play Texas they do not play Old Miss they do not play LSU and they do not play Tennessee this is their toughest SEC game if they can beat Alabama they're going to be in Atlanta so wrap your minds around that so the the key matchup for mou according to Joel clatt who you know covers college football as well is uh just about anyone sees the biggest games uh every week up close on the big noon kickoff on Fox if if uh Missouri can navigate this schedule and and knock off Alabama I think there's even a path if if uh Alabama comes out on top of that game that missou still could maybe sneak into that SEC Championship game in Atlanta uh but if they if they beat Alabama and certainly you know don't have to to worry about beating Georgia Texas om Miss LSU or Tennessee um the the path is is there certainly for maou to uh make a run at at a college football playoff spot you know if you're playing for the SEC title seems like that's going to put you in in pretty good uh position there and on that note Bruce Feldman of the athletic who did a uh playoff prediction uh a couple of weeks ago uh basically according to his followup you know maou was not in that 12 team playoff prediction from Bruce Felman but it sounded like they were perhaps team number 13 first team out uh Feldman said I struggled with this more than any other because barring significant injuries I have a hard time seeing Missouri do worse than 9 and three but I just can't see a fifth SEC team getting in and you know number 16 in our power rankings definitely within Striking Distance of uh that top 12 top 11 if you think you know power four Conference teams but obviously if you've gone through and seen those first 15 previews we've done six other SEC teams have already gone ahead of Missouri so uh it's it's going to be very difficult even with a man manageable schedule and perhaps mou might get a little bit dinged on its playoff resume by not playing uh as tough of an SEC schedule at least right now on paper uh than some of those teams that that currently rank ahead so how does missou stack up as far as the odds makers as far as other uh preseason projections and predictions go this morning at DraftKings which is just by by habit who I typically use to uh rate our our projections against as far as when totals go and and point spreads and things like that during the course of the season Missouri had a 9.5 uh win total regular season win total at DraftKings this morning I believe the odds were plus 135 on the over so um most uh you know more likely than not according to the market according to the odds makers uh that missou is going to come up just shy of that at at 9 uh you know just shy of of 9.5 uh but stacking up you know quite well nationally as far as national championship odds SEC odds things like that DraftKings had Missouri 12th in its odds to win the college football playoff at 30 to1 13th in the odds to make the college football playoff one uh plus 175 so little you know less than 50% if you think of it that way but still um very much in the mix for a playoff spot and uh in the SEC similar to our power rankings not exactly one of those top contenders uh but missou tied for sixth with Tennessee at 14 to1 odds uh in in uh according to DraftKings again other uh you know computer P computer based analytics projection systems other pre-season rankings magazines uh other uh you know media outlets and and uh folks who cover college football and and you know predict more uh how these teams will finish not necessarily how they stack up on a neutral field like our rankings do uh we dig into a wide range and and the highest uh preseason ranking that I've seen is Mark schlau of ESPN who has Missouri number eight in his posts spring you know post spring portal uh Power Rankings ESPN's football power index more on the computer side of things has Missouri number 10 as does Athlon Sports the preseason magazine SP plus uh from ESPN and Bill Connelly uh has the Tigers number 11 as does the sporting news you're seeing that you know uh maybe one computer and one uh you know magazine or or human uh ranking uh sort of in in each of these slots mostly moving forward number 12 SE Mandel of the athletic and also beta rank another one of those matchups uh Andy Staples of on three had maou 14th in his posts spring rankings K4 Kelly Ford the K Ford ratings have Missouri 15th uh but then on the low side is Phil steel who uh you know has a power pole computer-based poll and also uh his preseason you know top 25 top 40 projections predictions uh he's got Missouri at 18 and 22 in those two uh and then we've started including EA Sports in this uh setup and and the last couple that we've discussed EA Sports has been on the high side uh the college football 25 Power Rankings do not have Missouri uh ranked among the top 25 teams in college football so bit surprising there um but a little bit of a range here from number eight to unranked this Missouri team there's a wide range of outcomes doesn't Stack Up um you know at the Elite Talent level like maybe a Georgia uh even an Alabama who you know certainly uh much less experience coming into the season but um those those ratings coming out of high school player ratings individually um Missouri maybe just doesn't have quite uh that that level of high-end Talent or the depth of of that sort of high-end talent but we'll dig into those numbers uh again uh here in just a bit so uh let's take a quick look at how last season played out for the Tigers and of course it was um a very uh excellent uh year for uh this program and and a big reason why expectations are as high as they are pulling up our CFB Winning Edge 2024 team profiles if you scroll down in the middle of the page uh in the schedule section uh we have our 2023 results you can see wins losses final score as well as postgame win expectancy and we use college football data.com uh postgame win expectancy postgame Advanced box scores to determine if that game were to be played 100 times a thousand times however many and the the box score were the was the same what percent of the time would we expect each team to come out on the winning end and you can see Missouri started off 5 and0 with a very impressive performance throughout including that Kansas State game which the Tigers pulled off the upset in that game officially I do remember uh our numbers actually had Missouri favored in that game I was a little bit nervous about it it seemed um I don't remember if we were sort of the only ones but um not very many if I remember correctly other projection systems that week had Missouri expected to win that game uh worked out for us came out on top maou gets the big win and had a 77% chance uh of winning that game statistically speaking so certainly deserving of that Victory uh two more uh High 90s I mean that that Memphis win even though it was just a single possession in the final score uh Missouri deserved that one had a 99% postgame win expectancy number uh LSU tight game didn't quite work out mizou comes up short had just 5% in that one gets back immediately to playing great football against Kentucky and South Carolina takes a week off and then gives Georgia its most difficult uh test in the regular season um other than the Alabama uh loss in in the SEC Championship uh Georgia basically cruised most every other uh game but um Missouri actually would have won that game more than half the time according to those postgame winning expectancy numbers 59% in that 30 to 21 loss to the Bulldogs uh 100% dominant performance against Tennessee held the balls to just seven points very very impressive there a bit fortunate to beat Florida in a close 3331 uh just 18% postgame win expectancy uh against the gator so uh maybe a little bit of bad luck if you look at it that way against Georgia but definitely uh you know fortunate in in a lot of ways to come out on top against Florida uh huge win in the regular season finale against Arkansas in that uh rivalry game just blowout performance from the Tigers and then though it wasn't the the best Ohio State uh Squad that we have seen still a very very impressive performance another defensive standout performance from uh Missouri the offense may be lagging just a bit but that Ohio State defense as we've discussed uh maybe the most talented we've seen in in quite some time so very very uh successful season a real um you know a memorable campaign for mazou uh they're be talking about that 11- win season for a long time unless perhaps the 2024 season uh comes out even better and and that's definitely a possibility how did Missouri Stack Up statistically uh we'll see here at the the top of our uh team performance or excuse me the top of our uh Team profiles including our team performance ratings uh Missouri was 14th nationally in those overall team performance rating so looking only at statistical factors how did this team play uh on the field like a top 15 team last season 14th in offensive team performance overall 13th in passing offense 3 sixth in rushing offense uh and then top 30 defensively number 29 in overall defensive team performance number 40 against the pass number 25 against the run you can see a lot of these key numbers that we uh use to build those team performance numbers there are dozens and dozens of others that go in there but but these are certainly among the uh most important scoring margin all these numbers are uh taken against FBS opponents only in the regular season only so even though Missouri did have a uh you know very uh important and and and successful bowl game against a top quality opponent those numbers don't factor in here so we're looking only regular season only FBS opponents only we also filter for garbage time when we can um but Missouri top 20 in scoring margin uh 34 points per game on offense 23 and a half on defense comes out to a top 20 uh you know on on net on margin there nationally top 25 in net yards per play including top 15 on the offensive side of the ball number 23 in net points per drive those coming from Brian foro of BCF toys.com perhaps my favorite individual uh Team stat uh their net points per Drive I think is a great indicator of team performance overall net yards per pass attempt Missouri was 15th struggled a little bit on the defensive side of the ball outside the top 50 in yards per pass also as you can see there points per drive and yards per play allowed defensively those were certainly areas of improvement but success rate defensively Missouri was top 25 nationally just outside the top 25 on offense on net uh 18th there in that success rate our EPA uh equivalent we use college football data's uh PPA uh numbers and and on margin there Missouri number 26 19th on the offensive side of the ball uh closer to 60th defensively so you know these particular numbers missou uh you know maybe didn't play quite as well uh as uh that that team performance number would indicate so certainly some other factors went in uh to boost that rating but overall uh very very solid season uh and defensively is is where we'll discuss some of those returning production numbers maybe just don't quite stack up as as as well though they're still you know uh struggle over my words here uh not on the extreme low end a little bit closer to to FBS average uh but maybe a few more questions we'll say uh as far as uh the defensive returning production goes but how does mizou stack up nationally you can see in returning production number 20 in the FBS rankings number three in the SEC these are adjusted to include incoming transfers as well our raw returning Productions are here uh on uh this line you can see maou is number 10 in offensive returning production uh raw just based on who's coming back who's not from last season not taking into account those incoming transfers 76th on the defensive side of the ball top uh 20 overall in raw returning production at number 18 but again adjusted for incoming uh transfers that defensive number jumps up to uh 65th nationally and ends up 20th overall Brady cook 3300 yard passer completed two-thirds of his pass attempts nine yards per pass attempt is uh certainly uh a good number to shoot for if you can repeat that I think mou is going to be in very good shape the season 21-6 touchdown to interception ratio uh just an overall very very solid performance cook also can run it a little bit added more than 300 yards on the ground and eight touchdowns uh but the key piece missing on this offense as far as a a skill position standpoint from last season Cody shrer took on a very heavy workload 276 rushing yards over 1600 yards on the ground 14 touchdowns average nearly six yards per uh attempt that production has been replaced at least on paper Marcus Carroll put up very similar numbers carried you know almost as many uh had that many attempts almost for Georgia State last season uh found the inzone almost uh as much a little bit lower on the yardage number and and the yards per attempt but Marcus Carroll excellent excellent season seems like he's got maybe a little bit of a lead on fellow Sun Bel transfer Nate noell who adapt state has been very good over the course of his career uh was limited by injury a bit last season came up Shy of a th000 yards 825 on the ground just five touchdowns um but Noel very much uh expected to be a key piece of this offense this season both he and Carol uh according to Spring reports we discussed you know a couple of months ago when we first started good morning college football um those two are are definitely working uh together in that running back room and and though I expect Carol to emerge as more of the um you know first down second down back Nate noell and his receiving ability um I think he's going to certainly be able to carve out a role in this offense but uh be you know shider was the running back uh last season I mean Luther Burton is uh you know next on this list as far as returning uh rushing yards go with the loss of Nathaniel Pete who did have 7 six carries 3177 yards last season but um it was it was definitely the shraer show and not much depth behind uh certainly if you look past Pete here on on the numbers the only other running back who had a carry last season Jamal Roberts uh who went for one yard or excuse me negative one yard so um Carol and Noel filled a a big big need uh at running back and we'll talk about uh maybe a newcomer who could uh emerge as as an option as well the receiving uh room much much better as far as returning production and experience go uh from last season Luther Burton of course All-American uh candidate first round NL draft pick might be uh you know I'm not the NFL draft expert certainly uh but I think it's certainly in the mix probably not making too too uh going out on too far of a limb to suggest he could be the first wide receiver taken in in next year's draft uh certainly seen as a first rounder by most 120 targets last season 85 receptions over 12200 yards and nine touchdowns um a guy who can just put the put the ball in his hands and and let him go to work he can turn a small gain into a big play you can see average depth of Target for Burton uh on the low side especially among this top four group at under nine yards uh but somebody that that cook and and Eli drinkwitz uh just want to get the ball to and and so that's a big part of uh why that number is a little bit lower Phil whis uh kind of recaptured some of what made him a very highly rated recruit coming out of high school signed with Oklahoma uh he had 48 catches 661 yards and six touchdowns M Cooper who was also uh pretty well regarded recruit and transferred to missou from Ohio State uh finally a little bit healthier than he had been in previous years did not have a touchdown catch but uh decent numbers overall and and proved to be a key piece of that receiving core and Maris Johnson uh as a freshman last season uh you know three of his 13 catches found uh the endzone averag nearly 30 yards per reception also a big time performer in The Season's spring game so John looks like he's going to be uh you know emerging as a a factor in that receiving unit uh I'm a fan of tight end Brett Norfleet think that we're going to see him take another step forward as a pass catcher this year um and though you know Carol did uh have better receiving numbers than Noel last season um most indications are at least coming out of spring and and I think based on you know previous performance as well uh Noel probably going to be used a little bit more as a receiver out of the back field than Carol uh this year for the Tigers the offensive line losing two full-time starters Javon Foster and Xavier Delgado but three return also the addition of Marcus Bryant at left tackle from F SMU is a key one uh Kaden green former what festar recruit highly rated recruit in Oklahoma the other key piece so basically expecting that offensive line to continue to play quite well filled both you know uh positions with important and impactful transfers and on the defensive side of the ball uh there was a similar you know way of doing things for for Eli drinkwitz lose your top tackler uh Jaylen Carly's uh Tyran Hopper had an excellent last couple of seasons for maou 17 pressures last season uh and then the more you know NFL draft uh pieces who are who are going to be uh tougher to rep replace perhaps Chris Abrams drain Darius Robinson inis raaw but as you can see the highlighted blue uh lines here um mazou attacked that linebacker room that defensive line group as well uh and then Toriano Pride former four-star recruit at Clemson expected to step in and and uh compete certainly for uh one of those uh starting quarterback spots as well but a lot of positive reports about Chris mclen the transfer from Florida on the defensive line uh but Zion young Sterling web Eddie Kelly Cory flag Jr uh khil Jacobs as well I think all expected to be contributors on that Missouri defense So speaking of what is this team going to look like uh as far as uh projected depth chart goes saw a sneak peek of it just a bit ago when we were talking about those 2023 stats but no you know no uh easy outs we'll say no no uh areas on this offensive depth chart that look uh like they are major areas for concern um where there was a an experienced player who moved on Eli drink woods and this coaching staff filled it with experience filled it with Talent uh We've got Marcus Carrol slotted in that number one running back spot uh Nate Noel certainly could end up uh playing uh you know that that could be a little bit more of a split uh role this season than it was last season with with Shader and Pete um but I think if if one of those two is going to emerge in more of a a you know uh Workhorse type role like shider played last season I think Carol is is the more likely 210 lb Nate Noel is definitely below 200 lb listed here at 185 um so seems like he's built a little bit more to to carry that heavier workload if he's asked to if not both both running backs um I think could uh be a very you know one of the better uh running back Duos in the SEC Luther Burton of course is the Superstar uh but Brady cook very solid at the quarterback position has a lot to work with in the receiving core should be protected quite well on the offensive line it was a unit that ranked 26th last season in our oine performance ratings uh so solid overall and expect it'll be should be just as good quite honestly could be maybe even a little bit better uh with Kaden green and Marcus Bryant coming in this season quarterback depth was a concern the addition of Drew Pine uh via the transfer portal in the spring addressed that especially with Sam Horn uh going down with an injury this spring that's likely to uh cost him the season uh the running back room uh mentioned that depth certainly a little bit of a concern behind Carol and Noel uh Jamal Roberts we said was the only player who had a a carry last season d'vorce Jones former highly rated recruit Kuan Lacy is uh expected to to you know come in and and perhaps uh compete maybe for that number three running back role and and who knows both Carol and Noel they are certainly productive have been in the past and experienced but maybe don't have as you know highend of talent as somebody like lacy so there certainly is a path I think for Lacy to uh maybe even uh work his way into that primary rotation uh this season excited about his future for sure how it Stacks up um as far as Raw Talent goes I mean we mentioned that Missouri's just uh Gone on an absolute tear on the recruiting Trail and you know up to number what was it 14 13 in this morning's uh 247 class ratings 247 Sports um the the key piece that I saw I don't even really follow recruiting but uh certainly saw the commitment of Matt zer who on three has rated now as a five-star number 11 player overall in the class of 2025 um so these numbers that you're seeing here the raw recruiting rankings uh where Missouri is you know top 25 or very close in a lot of positions on the offensive side of the ball number 22 as far as overall offensive players in the 247 ratings um number five in wide receiver ratings from a raw St Talent standpoint 247 Sports composite average rating um it's a very very solid offense uh put together by Eli dritz and seems to be like these numbers are going to be moving uh even farther you know into the top 20 uh maybe even into the top 15 if if things play out if things uh stay uh as as good as they look right now defensively very similar numbers uh number 25 in average uh 247 defensive rating uh the defensive back room the secondary appears to be the best on paper as far as that average rating uh excuse me ranking goes um number 19 nationally number 33 among linebackers number 25 on the defensive line you can see on the Right End uh of this uh box here position strength these are where we take those Raw Talent ratings adjust them for experience and career production and you can see that that quarterback room moves from a top 50ish uh type unit to uh top 25 and maybe even an opportunity to improve from there especially if Brett C puts up some good numbers early in the season adds production points to uh those numbers there the running back situation stays mostly the same as does the wide receiver room the offensive line takes a little bit of a a step up based on its experience uh the defensive uh rooms mostly hold but because that is the more inexperienced unit based on who this team lost last year little bit more like a top 3035 uh defense as far as uh the roster strength numbers go the defensive roster strength numbers uh instead of top 25 like the Raw Talent would indicate but defensively a lot coming back uh as far as overall starters five starters which didn't used to be very many now seems like uh is is uh little more maybe middle of the pack but certainly some experience to build around especially Johnny Walker Jr as we mentioned Chris mclen uh probably underrated here as an 86 uh rated player according to our video game ratings think of them similarly to the college football 25 EA Sports uh overall ratings um I think our numbers tend to be a little bit higher on the whole uh also we go past 99 we go into the 100s which I'm sure you saw there with uh Luther Burton on the offensive side of the ball at a 102 almost 103 uh but mlen was really uh I mean I think maybe the most disgusted member of that defense this spring so expect him to have a a bigger impact than that rating might indicate um but he Johnny Walker chrisan Williams also Joe Moore uh who was very productive prior last season not as much only played 20% of the team snaps last year but um that looks like a very solid front four and the added depth was Zion young Sterling web uh Darius Smith who who uh has been a linebacker looks like he's probably a little more likely to play uh more of a defensive end uh role in uh Missour Missouri's 425 base defense coming from a 34 at Georgia um but overall very solid on the defensive line the linebacker room should be in pretty good shape with Chuck kicks as a returning starter Cory flag as the expected uh incoming starter but how's that secondary going to work out dalen Carnell and Joseph Car Charleston returning starters torano Pride expect he's going to compete for one of those uh starting spots as well but drayen Norwood Sydney Williams are a little more on the uh maybe not inexperienced I mean both both played roughly half of of uh snaps for this defense last season but we not you know quote unquote starters did not uh take the field with that first team uh immediately Caleb flag incoming transfer was the MVP of the spring game defensively um had a a solid uh season last year at Houston Christian walk- on so not you know the the highest rated player not the biggest expectations but really emerged as a playmaker last season he's going to be I think a fun one to watch see if he can uh emerge there as a a key player and then uh one true freshman here for Missouri on the defensive chart traan Graco excuse me and I might mispronounce that my apologies um I said I'm not a recruiting guy I don't watch a lot of high school football anymore um but I did catch one game last season it was a Dylan Rola uh his his offense or excuse me his uh High School uh Buford High School in Georgia they were playing was it Brookwood where Greco went um and Greco was the player on that game the one high school game I paid a lot of attention to last season uh I came away most impressed so very curious to see how how he uh plays this year and it looks like there's certainly a path to early playing time for him as a defensive back uh for the Tigers but looking at this season's projections uh we mentioned that DraftKings win total is N9 and a half we're below that we come in on the under in our official win total ejections mentioned this before so please bear with me but we've been doing uh those win total projections in in this manner uh every year for all 100 FBS or all 134 however many there were that particular year FBS teams uh and track them you know how did we do wins losses also what are the odds um you know how did we do on a a fictional $100 bet for each uh and since 2021 when we started tracking those we have a 60.4% win rate last season was 55.6% that was our lowest um but overall I feel you know pretty good about that think that that if we were able to come out on the right side 55 a half% of the time uh that's that's you know pretty good to me uh on these win totals 60% over the the three years I feel very very good about uh but there is always room for improvement so this year we're trying to uh see if we can capture a little bit better uh you know a little bit more I don't know what the right word is diversity or or uh because basically all the top teams you know top 20 type teams we're going to be on the under for their win total the bottom 2025 teams we're going to be on the over um that has worked out I guess more often than not but I want to get a little bit more precise maybe um and so we have an adjusted win total that we're tracking this year is not going to be in our official numbers but uh hopefully it'll help to give a little bit of a bonus so a 10 uh percent of a win bonus for every matchup in which a particular team is a favorite a 10% penalty for every uh matchup in which that team is uh a projected Underdog uh Missouri here is favored in nine games an underdog in three even though those Oklahoma and Texas A&M matchups basically coin flips um we still count those as Missouri being an underdog so that's a plus six in that adjusted win total so we add the 8.55 add that you know6 wins to it we're still under the 9 and a half so we're not going to quite get there for Missouri even with the updated number um so even though this is a very manageable schedule 65th in the FBS Rank and our our strength of schedule numbers that is uh maybe the lowest I've ever seen for an SEC team there was it last year Kentucky uh was maybe you know in the 50s something like that um very manageable uh this this is uh I mean FBS average right basically and for an SEC team that's that's almost unheard of so um Missouri absolutely could uh over perform get to you know 10 regular season uh wins absolutely the path is there for you know 11 wins maybe undefeated right we we don't have Missouri as as uh uh more than a five-point Underdog in any matchup and that's that that game against Alabama that Joel clatt Joel clatt excuse me outlined as the one that would get uh Missouri into the college football playoff most likely or into the the SEC Championship game is what what he said I think that'll probably get him into the playoff uh but Missouri is is uh favored by in every other game certainly some of those are losable that Auburn game right before Alabama uh the one home game in you know three out of four weeks Missouri's on the road I don't necessarily love that uh so that I don't think sets up super well for Alabama that trip to UMass is kind of weird um shouldn't be an issue I think Missouri's going to you know win that game easily um but that's you know bit bit of a bit of a hike and also uh getting on a plane for uh you know three times in a month is is uh uh can wear on you just a little bit so um that Auburn game uh I think is is going to be a little bit tricky that Oklahoma game we our our numbers are very high on Oklahoma playing at South Carolina is never easy playing at Mississippi State even though Mississippi state's our second to to lowest uh SEC team in our power rankings um back-to-back Road games even against you know opponents that aren't considered to be um you know top tier SEC teams uh so there's there's maybe a little bit of uh hidden difficulty in in some of these but the the the list of player you know the list of teams that missouru uh doesn't have to play uh I think far outweighs that and I think that you know this experienced team is capable of winning the games it's supposed to win and and maybe even uh knocking off a team that that maybe you wouldn't expect it to so uh this missou squad maybe a little underrated in our numbers certainly compared to some uh you might say a little bit uh underrating their wind total projection here um but also you know our our numbers I I do just sort of get out of the way and and trust them so we're going to be under maou here but um the the path to a very very special season season is absolutely there if the quarterback play continues if Luther Burton you know plays to All-American uh standards if the transfers at running back the experience at wide receiver take a little pressure off of Burden that offensive line continues to play like a top 25 unit maybe even creeps into the top 20 or top 15 and then defensively uh you know the secondary is is maybe the key uh area of concern didn't quite hit the transfer portal as hard to replace those NFL players on the back end like uh this coaching staff did on the defensive line and at linebacker uh but if they're able to to overcome that is maybe maybe the only real trouble spot uh not even trouble spot but but you know still have a little bit of a question roster wise on paper uh about the secondary if it plays up to uh you know like a like a top 25 unit um then this Missouri team absolutely uh could make its way to the SEC Championship Game could make its way into the playoff could be a dangerous team uh in in that playoff so uh the path is definitely there especially the way the schedule sets up so that will do it for us today thank you so much for joining us thank you for liking this video and for subscribing to the campus to Canton YouTube channel uh we will be back on Friday with our Louisville uh preview we've got Texas A&M coming up on Monday I'm actually going to be traveling over the weekend so we're going to pre-record those on Thursday and release them for Friday and Monday so if there's any major news that we miss from any of these media days um or anything else that that comes up we will uh get to that in full I imagine on the following Wednesday so uh everyone I hope you have a great rest of the week our next preview will be up on Friday uh but until then take care and uh thank you for joining us