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hello everyone welcome to OnPoint politics today you're looking at a podcast clip from my channel make sure to hit the like button and to subscribe if you want more content just like this my new national average which I mean I have been kind of promoting for the past couple of days um so that is definitely something that is pretty interesting and I again I've talked about it in this current episode and right now I mean we finished the website I think it's looking pretty nice uh and I'm going to show it to you guys right now so you guys can go ahead and see it before we end off the show here but right now Donald Trump is the favorite to win the presidential election based off of me reweighing all of the polling data by party ID Donald Trump right now is a 68% favorite to win the election based on his leads in the states Harris had about 31% Donald Trump's odds in Wisconsin Pennsylvania North Carolina Georgia Arizona and Nevada are all above 60% that's why they are in the lean column all of the states that are in the likely column are 70 to 80% odds and anything that save has more than an 80% chance of going to either candidate and looking at North Carolina 67% odds in North Carolina Florida 76% odds in Florida for Donald Trump to win them and Donald Trump is winning the state by a little bit over 10 it looks like an 11-point win there uh Texas right now I think it's like on the brink of 15 points based on what I have uh Colorado is like a nine and a half Point win Illinois it's like around a little bit over 10 New Jersey is like a seven or eight point win New York is actually in the like a little bit in the safe colum it's like barely safe or like barely under safe I can't really tell when I do the math in my head Trump in Pennsylvania is up by four and change Michigan three and a half Wisconsin he's up by over five and he's up in all the sunb states by over five points and looking at California he's up there by a little bit over 20 so again Donald Trump is the favorite and right now with the states that are up for grabs New Mexico is a point in change for herris new mexic Minnesota is about uh two points three points for Harris so that's actually her best deep blue State uh Maine is toss up it's a little bit under 60% odds for Harris it's almost a four-point win so slightly Bluer Than Minnesota and Michigan right now is a trump plus three state looking at Virginia we look at that that's like a two and a half Point Victory in New Hampshire it's like a one point something percentage Point win and Nebraska second Harris is like nearly leading it it's the closest state on the map right now and looking at the national average today we dropped a new Economist poll into the average and I believe a NPR Maris poll was dropped out of the average because it's over a month old and when you see when you reway all of the party ID data Donald Trump is leading and this kind of aligns with the polling error that rcps has had the past like I mean in 2016 they overestimated Clinton by 1.1 then they overestimated Biden by three and a lot of the polling data has gone Bluer in their samples especially with Harris now and so you may see Donald Trump really win the popular vote by about two to three points and right now I have Trump up by 3.2% and it's not putting Harris in the best spot I mean she's hovering right around her job approval rating on RCP and the job approval rating always tends to be a lot more accurate I mean that's always where it is it's a lot more accurate than even any poll usually the job approval tends to predict the national popular vote share of either candidate pretty well and Donald Trump once RFK kind of dropped out you clearly see I've left him in the average because I want to see where his support goes over time and as Kennedy's Fallen Donald Trump has gone up in support Harris has gone up a tiny bit and you can see here Harris gained about a point in the average here this is because I implemented something here and I posted this on x i implemented something in the grading system this is how I grade the polls basically you get certain points based on certain things so margin of error from 2020 the more inaccurate what you were the less of a grade you get so the more accurate what you were the more points you get in the average then I grade on the sample size so depending on how many hlls there are in the average for a current pollster they get more of a weight in the electorate because let's say that a pollster you know doesn't pull for like like a month right let's say like they their polls keep falling out of the average it wouldn't make sense for their weight to stay the same because since they have less samples put into the average they're less representative of the electorate and so it only makes sense to also grade pollsters on how many Aver po they have in the month average so I also include that I also grade on Sample sides as well so that kind of they kind of work together if you guys would like to bet on the presidential election and see where the latest odds are make sure to go ahead and look at betonline.com where you can bet which state is going to go to either candidate and basically look at the odds so for example Florida the Democrats if you bet 100 bucks on on them you get about 600 back which is pretty insane and looking at Illinois same thing if you bet on Republicans 100 bucks you'd make about $2,500 you can also vote on The Electoral College whether or not you know what amount of votes each candidate will get in the Electoral College you can actually bet on the presidential debate as well Donald Trump being the underdog I may actually bet on that but we will see looking at referenda you can also bet on certain you know referendum that have to pass or not you can also bet on the winning party you can also bet on world leaders as well who's going to leave and when Vladimir Putin is even going to leave and everything you can also bet on the House of Representatives so if you guys want to see all of these make sure to go ahead and hit the like button and make sure to subscribe and go to the description down below to check out the latest betting odds and then after that I grade based on the likely a registered voters screen so if you are likely voter screen you get more points if you're registered voters you kind of get less points and I also this is where I implemented the grading on undecided so the more undecided you have the less of a grade you get so if you have a poll that has Trump at 40 and Harris at 40 you're gonna have 20% undecided like that's a lot of people that's literally like the undecided could all break either way and the race could go either way so it only makes sense for pollsters that have more undecideds to get less of a grade because they may be less representative and I want to keep the undecided as low as possible in the average so when I predict my final popular vote margin on Election Day when I'm kind of doing my final election predictions for everything I want to have as least possible room for error as much as possible and so when you see this date here between August 25th and the 2 six you see Harris does gain a point but the undecideds go down by about a point and that's what happened Harris just picked up all the undecideds when I waigh for polls that have less undecided so for those of you claiming that I'm trying to be biased when I make this average I'm not I'm trying to be as accurate as possible by reweighing all the polling ID or the party ID to get a more accurate representation and just for the sake of this the national average I'm weighing it to a tide electorate Republican registration Nationwide in every single state except Colorado has been absolutely good to the point where I I kind of have to move the electorate like a point to the right I mean I have to the electorate in D in 2020 was d+1 and it was funny when I actually did this for 2020 I actually went back used the same pollsters plugged in all the data and what I did is I weighed the 2020 electorate to the 2016 electorate and when I did that my final average was Biden at like 49.5% and Trump was like at 44 point something like it was literally like Biden plus 5.2 which was Harris's which was Biden's final average with Ras musin reports by the way so my average doing the same thing I'm doing now with Biden would have produced a more accurate average than RCP and 538 did the same exact thing I'm doing and all I did is I reweigh all the data to 2016 and Donald Trump was down in the popular V 5.2% and that would have helped me predict the Electoral College almost spot on and looking down here we tested the model to 2020 and the way it works is we have my polling average SLP personal estimation my demographic margins which is the 538 I showed you I plugged in baris's numbers I pluged those in and then what I do is I find the nonpartisan leaning of every single state so essentially what it is is you get a state you find how it votes relative to the nation so for example Georgia was tilt blue in 2020 but the popular Ro was Biden plus 4.5 it was a margin of plus 0.2 so when you subtract the popular Ro minus the margin you get the relative vote to the nation so Georgia voted to the right of the nation by 4. 2% so when you find that for every state and you track the trend between 2 and 2020 and you add the trend from each cycle to the 2020 numbers you find an estimate relative to the nation vote for every state and then I add my estimated popular vote to that and that gets averaged in with the other two results and when we tested the model to 2020 I mean you literally get something that's pretty much accurate now what I preference this is the 538 model the default settings are the correct 2020 demographics and so clearly if I plugged in the correct demographics it would have been right so assuming that I would have gotten the demographics correct and plugged in my own personal projections from 2020 which was Biden 278 to Trump 260 and I still remember all of the categorizations I had for that election and looking at my nonpartisan plus popular vote margin I plugged in my Biden of f plus 5.2 into all of the partisan leaning and you get something that's pretty accurate and I even put something here uh if I would have basically overestimated Trump in the demographic model by Five Points in every state it would have been Trump 289 to 249 if I would have overestimated Biden which would have been more likely given the polling data we had I would have had B with 321 to 217 and North Carolina would have been tilt blue so I still would have been within reason way better than 538 or RCP or Nate silver for that matter and so this is what you get and it's pretty close like Minnesota plus 6.2 for Biden you it was Biden plus 7.1 New Hampshire was six and a half Biden plus 7.4 Maine was actually a little bit Bluer in the final result it was like 10.1 and he ended up winning it by 9.1 Nebraska D plus 5 it was 6.6 Pennsylvania 0.8 it was plus 1.2 Wisconsin 0.5 was literally plus 0.6 Georgia plus 0.26 it was like almost on the money it was like literally 200s off Arizona plus 0.5 it was 0.3 Nevada plus 2.1 it was 2.4 now now again in 2016 I did I did the map for 2016 and it doesn't get it 100% correct only reason being that Nebraska second goes blue but I get every other state right even Nevada so when you plug it in and 2016 is a little bit iffy because I only have the nonpartisan and the demographic model to go off of because I didn't have any personal projections or polling data so even if I use the RCP Aggregates for some of the states I probably still would would have gotten pretty close uh either way I still probably would have gotten close because I think I had Trump trump was a little overestimated in the rust Bel States but even if I used the RCP Aggregates I could have probably even been more correct because Georgia was actually Lan R in my 2016 map uh so if I had plugged in the RCP average I probably actually could have gotten georg's margin closer and same thing for Arizona Arizona is like a little bit to the left of what it was in Nevada was a little bit close so overall this month model when used correctly and honestly does prove to be accurate and there is some human intervention I am fiddling around with the model but I feel like that's important because if you're strictly relying on some mathematical equation you're you're kind of leaving out the critical thinking process of a person knowing what the electri is going to look like who's going to turn out where states are moving like you're kind of missing that and with these new adjusted averages you get something that's a lot better I actually did the adjusted average for Wisconsin in 2020 and my adjusted average is Biden plus 2.1 that's not that off from the final margin the final margin was Biden plus 0.6 that's like one and a half points off that's literally better than any aggregate you would find out there and I weighed for an r+ five electorate I literally weighed for the same elector as 2020 and we basically would have had the same exact not the same exact result but only one and a half points off