Allan Lichtman shares his prediction in the 2024 presidential election

Published: Sep 04, 2024 Duration: 00:04:28 Category: News & Politics

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PURPOSES. >> STEVE, ANOTHER BREAKING DEVELOPMENT THIS MORNING. THIS IN THE RACE FOR THE WHITE HOUSE AS THE NOSTRADAMUS OF PRESIDENTIAL PREDICTIONS IS OUT WITH HIS PICK FOR WHO WILL WIN THE WHITE HOUSE. AND HE'S BEEN RIGHT NINE OUT OF THE LAST TEN ELECTIONS. THE LOCAL HISTORIAN MAKING THE NATIONAL NEWS RIGHT NOW, ALLAN LICHTMAN, JOINING US LIVE WITH HIS CHOICE AND WHY HE MADE THAT PICK. ALWAYS A PLEASURE TO TALK TO YOU. WE'VE BEEN WAITING FOR THIS. WE'RE NOT GOING TO WAIT ANY LONGER. LET US KNOW WHAT YOU DECIDED. >> YOU KNOW, MY PREDICTION SYSTEM IS UNIQUE. AND AS YOU SAID, IT'S BEEN ESSENTIALLY RIGHT FOR 40 YEARS. I WOULD SAY TEN OF TEN. BUT WE ARE NOT GOING TO RELITIGATE 2000 HERE. AND THE WAY IT WORKS IS IT TAPS INTO THE STRUCTURE OF HOW ELECTIONS REALLY WORK AS VOTES UP OR DOWN ON THE STRENGTH AND PERFORMANCE OF THE WHITE HOUSE PARTY. AND IF SIX OR MORE OF MY 13 FACTORS GO AGAINST THE WHITE HOUSE PARTY, THEY'RE PREDICTED LOSERS. OTHERWISE THEY ARE PREDICTED WINNERS. AND I FINALLY COME TO MY FINAL PREDICTION AND CONCLUDED THAT THE WHITE HOUSE PARTY, THE DEMOCRATS NOW REPRESENTED BY KAMALA HARRIS, WOULD NOT LOSE ANY MORE THAN 5 KEYS. THUS MY PREDICTION IS KAMALA HARRIS WILL BE A PRECEDENT BREAKING PRESIDENT OF THE UNITED STATES. THE FIRST WOMAN PRESIDENT IN U.S. HISTORY. >> ALLEN, WHEN KAMALA HARRIS TOOK OVER AS THE TOP NOMINEE FOR THE DEMOCRATS, WE TALKED ABOUT THIS, AND YOU SAID AT THE TIME YOU WANTED TO BE ADAMANT THAT THIS WAS YOU WERE NOT MAKING YOUR PICK AT THAT TIME. YOU'RE MAKING YOUR PICK NOW. DID ANYTHING CHANGE OR WAS THERE ANYTHING THAT YOU WERE LOOKING AT SPECIFICALLY BETWEEN WHEN JOE BIDEN WAS LEADING THE NOMINATION AND WHEN KAMALA HARRIS DID? >> ABSOLUTELY. FIRST OF ALL, WAS THE FACT THAT DEMOCRATS FINALLY GOT A SPINE AND GOT SMART AND UNITED AROUND HARRIS THAT AVOIDED THE LOSS OF THE PARTY CONTEST KEY. THEY ALREADY LOST ONE KEY. THE INCUMBENCY KEY, OBVIOUSLY, BUT TO LOSE BOTH OF THEM IS A NEAR FATAL COMBINATION. SO THAT MADE A HUGE DIFFERENCE. THE OTHER THING I THINK HARRIS HAS HAD A POSITIVE EFFECT ON A COUPLE OF OTHER KEYS. I THINK SHE CONTRIBUTED TO THE FIZZLING OF THE RFK JUNIOR CAMPAIGN SINCE VOTERS DID NO LONGER HAVE TO CHOOSE BETWEEN TWO OLD WHITE GUYS. I HATE TO SAY THAT BEING AN OLD WHITE GUY MYSELF. AND SECONDLY, I THINK SHE CONTRIBUTED TO THE DAMPENING OF MAJOR PROTESTS BECAUSE BIDEN, THE POLICY MAKER, WAS NO LONGER OUT FRONT. SO THOSE TWO KEYS SOCIAL UNREST, THIRD PARTY AND OF COURSE PARTY CONTEST KEY WERE CRITICAL KEYS THAT TURNED IN FAVOR OF THE INCUMBENTS. AND REMEMBER, THIS IS A PREDICTION, NOT AN ENDORSEMENT. I PREDICT ABOUT AS MANY REPUBLICAN AS DEMOCRATIC VICTORIES, INCLUDING DONALD TRUMP IN 2016. >> BASED ON YOUR OWN HISTORY OF PREDICTIONS, ALLEN, FOR THIS TIME NOW, AS WE'RE NOW TWO MONTHS OUT, ALMOST EXACTLY AS TO THE ELECTION, COULD ANYTHING CHANGE THAT WOULD IMPACT THOSE KEYS BETWEEN NOW AND ELECTION DAY? >> NOT SINCE THE CIVIL WAR HAS ANYTHING IN THE LAST 30 DAYS CHANGED A CALL? THE CIVIL WAR. WE HAD THE BIG UNION VICTORIES VERY LATE. DOES THAT MEAN IT'S IMPOSSIBLE? NO, I'M NOT SO ARROGANT TO SAY, YOU KNOW, NOTHING CAN CHANGE IN HISTORY. THERE ARE TWO KEYS THAT ARE STILL VERY SHAKY THAT I'VE KIND OF SPLIT THE FOREIGN MILITARY FAILURE AND SUCCESS KEYS. IT'S CONCEIVABLE, GIVEN HOW FLUID WARS ARE. AND THERE ARE TWO WARS GOING ON. BOTH OF THOSE KEYS COULD FLIP NEGATIVE AGAINST THE DEMOCRATS, BUT THAT WOULD STILL, EVEN IN THAT ENTIRE SCENARIO FOR DEMOCRATS, LEAVE THEM DOWN. 5 KEYS, STILL ONE KEY SHORT OF A PREDICTED DEFEAT. THAT'S WHY I SAID THEY REALLY ARE IN A POSITION TO LOSE A MAXIMUM OF 5 KEYS. >> PRESIDENTIAL PREDICTOR ALLAN LICHTMAN OUT WITH HIS PREDICTION FOR THIS YEAR, GOING WITH KAMALA HARRIS BASED ON HIS KEYS FOR THE PRESIDENCY. ALLEN, I APPRECIATE YOU JOINING US THIS MORNING TO MAKE THAT NEWS AND TO EXPLAIN SOME

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