STEVE KORNACKI THE TRUTH HOW KAMALA CAN FLIP RED STATES

indicating North Carolina a Battleground State here you can see where it ended up in 2020 Donald Trump won the state it was close the margin was just over one point just under 75,000 votes and North Carolina among the Battleground States we talk about this year it's Unique because all of the others Arizona Michigan Pennsylvania all of the others voted for Joe Biden in 20120 all of the other Battleground States it's the Democrats trying to protect Electoral College votes that they already won in North Carolina is Democrats trying to play offense and take electoral votes from Republicans so let's look at it from each party's perspective here first for the Democrats why do they think they could flip North Carolina if they do what will do it the answer is it's something we talk about nationally all the time it's suburbs it's metropolitan areas areas around cities you've got the Research Triangle you've got the pedmont Triad you've got Metrolina where Charlotte is go out to the mountains where're ask is you see these blue areas here and and a couple things to note about them first is these are areas that are getting Bluer so they're already went for Joe Biden and the Democrats in 2020 but let me show you what I mean Wake County this is the biggest in the state here Biden won it you could see by 26 points 27 points uh go back to 2008 when Barack Barack Obama actually won North Carolina in 2008 it was by this much but look biggest county in the state Obama won by 14 points in 2008 by 2020 look at this margin for Democrats that's a 27o margin for Democrats so big counties like this are getting Bluer they're also getting bigger they're adding population so Democrats think that's a heck of a combination they say look Joe Biden in 2020 came this close to beating Donald Trump you then add in four years of population growth and four years more years of those Metro areas getting Bluer you know Ashville Greensboro Charlotte Raleigh on and on they think they can erase 75,000 votes right there but now let's take it from the Republicans perspective why do they think they can hold on it's because what I just described is not the only thing that's happening in North Carolina you also see all of the red on this map here from west to east a lot of the counties are small counties I just showed you the biggest in the state let me show you something on the much much much smaller side but it's going to indicate the other Force that's playing out here in North Carolina politics this is surri County tiny look at that but look at the margin Donald Trump carried it by 52 points in 2020 over Joe Biden now take a look just as I said those Metro areas are getting Bluer here's a rural County look at the journey that it has been on we'll go back again to 2008 still a red County in 2008 but look the margin it was 28 points for John McCain and the Republicans in 2008 last time around 2020 as I just showed you 52 and that's not just happening in this one small County that we're putting up on the board here it's happening in small counties like it all across the state individually they're small collectively they add up and so you've got sort of what you'd call a trump surge area in a lot of these red counties and a democratic surge area in these blue counties which one is going to be able to sort of churn out just enough votes for each side that could decide not just North Carolina but the presidency and there is one other X Factor we want to mention here you do see this swath of blue whoa that wasn't supposed to happen and hope I didn't make you dizzy but there's this swath of blue right here these are actually small counties these are rural counties and they're blue why are they blue because they have large africanamerican populations and this is an interesting note here because while these counties you see most of these in this area are blue and did vote for Joe Biden in 2020 if you compare the margin that Biden won them by and the relative turnout he got in 2020 it's not at the level that Barack Obama got when he carried the state back in 20 8 and so maybe that's the other X Factor we talk about the Metro areas we talk about the red Republican rural counties what about the large African-American populations in these small rural counties can Democrats get something like that enthusiasm they had for Obama in 2008 out of these counties that in an extremely tight election maybe could make the difference and settle the tie between I'll be honest with you I actually don't know why anybody's surprised that camela Harris did such a great job uh in her interview with Dana Bash and CNN with Tim WS I mean she's been doing a job for a while she kind of has a little bit of inclination uh as to how to be a good politician and I don't believe that she would be running for the highest office in the land if she didn't have just an extreme level of competence about her I thought the interview was great for me the standout moment from just my personal thing she refused to get involved in what they call the the baiting by Trump and you know over her race and the fact that she's female wow there's a surprise she kept it very adult uh very intelligent and if I was Trump I'd be worried because he isn't able to have a conversation that doesn't go down the path of mocking being rude being condescending being patronizing lying uh having a chip on his shoulder winging moaning all of that stuff and being insulting sexist racist homophobic Ian know the list goes on that is what he does how is he going to com these live debates I some something tells me he's only going to do one and he is really going to find out it cogently and she can also do it in repetition we see that Donald Trump has flip-flopped on everything he just took back his stance on um on on abortion rights when it came to the the Florida um policy that is going to be on the ballot in November we see time and time again this is somebody who says one thing and then does something else this is someone who can't remember what he said three days ago so he revises the policy on the Fly this is someone who is known to you know go into Attack Mode immediately when he does either does not want to answer a question or when he is inciting um his maab Bay to be violent against journalists I think that she has so many entryways where she can speak to Donald Trump's actions but also who the man is and she's going to continue doing that throughout the campaign trip but she has to balance that with her own policy ideology and where America is going to go under a Harris walls Administration those are the things that she's doing it's not just about who you're running against it's also about why people should be voting for invested in you and I think that that's the bigger piece of what kamla Harris is doing on the campaign trip okay Amisha and Brendan stay with me guys after the break behind the numbers what new polling might suggest I am back with my panel Amisha cross and Brendan buck so Brendan we heard from the Trump team that the Harris honeymon would end and that most voters won't start paying attention until Labor Day well Labor Day is Monday Harris leads in a new National Reuters poll she's closed the Gap in many state polls people are paying attention are voters saying at least for today that this race is Harris's to lose uh I think that's probably the right bet at this point oh I think we talked about this last week coming out of the convention you sure should hope that after the five weeks that KLA Harris has had is that she's going to have a pretty strong lead she has a lead Al although I don't know that it's a lead that you could necessarily feel super excited about if if you're that team you still should be a little nervous there again there have been no better stretches in modern American politics than what K Harris just did um now at the same time of course Trump Donald Trump clearly has a ceiling and and that's what he's running up against um but she's clearly the favorite at this point I would just probably want to see a little more of a lead we that that you know that lead is four points but it still only has her at 45 The Wall Street Journal only has her up one um it's it's going to be it's going to be a closer election as we always sort of thought it would be politics seem to be settling back to where they've been for the last 10 years very closely divided yeah 100% so Misha with respect to the swing States it shows a surge for the vice president rather pronounced in some places but all certainly within the margin of error do these polls give you some degree of optimism or are you wary of complacency there is optimism but there is also a keep your foot on the gas uh narrative here because I do think that as the Harris campaign has Illustrated that they are the underdog um they are positioning themselves to continue these bus tours to go outside of major Urban centers to make sure they're also hitting rural areas to make sure they're reaching voters where they are um and also acknowledging the fact that this is still a new ticket uh KLA Harris has been at the top of the ticket for what a month um at this point there's a recognition that there has to be so much on the ground work and irrespective of the polls because polls will go up polls will go down it is what it is we're still within the margin of era I don't think anyone ever assumed that this was going to be an easy race to win we always knew that it was going to be extremely close these races are one within the margins so she is doing exactly what she needs to do she's talking to people and meeting them where they are bringing in younger voters bringing in diverse voters bringing in um some Republican voters as well bringing in those people who were essentially double haters before she entered the race bringing in individuals who have not voted in presidential elections in years she is making herself the new variety of the democ party and opening the Democratic party to one that does not solely speak to what people consider traditional Democrats she is making this a very different wave and I think that that's going to carry her through but make no mistake the innovation of this campaign has