Florida State Football 2024 Schedule Preview & Record Projection

Intro what's going on YouTube this is sg1 sports and you're watching our college football channel our schedule preview projected record series continues with the Florida state seminal coming off of an undefeated regular season and of course not making the college football playoff I'm sure everyone's tired of talking about that I still I still think they should have been in the playoff uh it wouldn't have mattered because they probably would not have won uh I definitely don't think they would have won both games in the playoff but uh it's still crazy to me that an undefeated team gets left out we don't have to worry about that anymore though problem for Florida state is they're probably going to wish they had the schedule they had last year this year because this schedule this year is going Schedule Preview to be really tough this was that schedule last year they did play LSU and Florida of course in the non-conference so they played two non-conference games that were pretty tough but the ACC wasn't great last year they didn't play Louisville in the regular season didn't play NC State didn't play North Carolina so they had a pretty favorable schedule even though they did go out and play LSU in the non-conference it wasn't that bad you look at the schedule this year and I think it could wind up being a little bit tougher and I'll explain why but first let's break it down first we'll look at the non-conference games so they play Memphis on the road at Notre Dame Charleston Southern and Florida I would argue that that's a tougher non-conference schedule because Notre aame is a true Road game where they played LSU in on a neutral field last year even though the game was in Florida and then Memphis is a pretty good team at that group of five levels so uh this is a tougher non-conference schedule in my opinion and then you go to their home schedule they got Memphis Charleston Southern Florida Boston College Cal Clemson and North Carolina not too tough of a home schedule these are all games they've got a great a great chance to win you know Clemson we'll see what that team looks like this year uh Florida State I think is is still going to be really good I don't think they're going to be as good as they were last year and they did lose a lot but they added a lot in the transfer portal enough to reload and enough to I think make them you know a top 15 team maybe not a top five team but a top 15 team where will Clemson wind up uh I don't know they could be a top 15 team as well but again all these games very winnable Road schedule though you've got that game against Notre Dame you've got Miami who I think has a chance to be better this year you have to play them on the road Duke and SMU could be a little bit tricky on the road and then Georgia Tech they play in Ireland that's a week Zero game you got to go all the way and leave the country against a Georgia Tech Team a program that is on the rise that could be a pretty challenging game and so again the schedule maybe it's not much tougher than last year's but if you look at the way it sets up this is what I don't like if I'm a Florida State fan we'll start at the top they've got that Jordan Tech game and because that's a week zero game they will get three by wees because everyone gets two this year they're going to get three by weeks so that is very interesting and that could help them out so they get that game and then they'll play Boston College on September the 2nd at home and then they get Memphis on the 14th and then after that game it'll be Cal on the 21st then it's on the road at SMU Clemson at home so um you've got a byee there between Boston College and Memphis and circling back to that Boston College game that's actually a Monday that is Labor Day so they play Georgia Tech and then they have more than a week so that'll be good coming back to uh the United States obviously and playing Boston College on a Monday then getting that bye before Memphis so that that does work out pretty well well the way that that's all set up but yeah there's Memphis then there's Cal on the road at SMU on the 28th then Clemson on October the 5th that'll be a home game then they get a byee after that Clemson game it'll be after that this is this is what I don't like about the schedule so going from uh the Duke game to the Notre Dame game you got on the road at Duke then you got on the road at Miami then you've got North Carolina at home and then on the road at Notre Dame so three out of four games there all on the road I have no idea why they they set the schedule up that way uh that's going to be a tough stretch right there I don't know how good Duke's going to be with Mike Elco gone and and RI Leonard gone but they could be a pretty good team we'll see Miami is going to be a very difficult game North Carolina is one of those that we don't know too much about right now and Notre Dame is going to be a very difficult game especially on the road and then they get a byee after Notre Dame so that just that does not set up well at all Charleston Southern after that and then Florida to close things out so again you look at the schedule you know the first part of it is is nice the way it it sets up there but that middle of the schedule from you know luckily they get a bye after Clemson and you don't have that stretch from Clemson and Notre Dame all in a row and you know what's also interesting about this schedule you see California and you seeu those are ACC conference games think about that for a second that is going to be so weird um SMU was a good team last year this was a team that was was a borderline top 25 team and they could be good again uh that that's going to be possibly a challenge there so this schedule in my opinion uh it's not that easy if you just took the opponents on paper you might say yeah this is not too tough a schedule but playing in Ireland playing all those Road games together right there it's it's going to be a tough schedule in my opinion so let's get to the projection first let's look at the projections from last year they were 12-0 our projection had them at 9 and3 I picked them to go 10-2 I was so close to putting them at 11- one but uh just I was bagging fourth on that LSU game I had Florida State originally so I would have had him 111 I changed my mind should have left it alone anyways Aon had him at 10-2 the over under was at 9 and a half um and this is a team the Clemson win on the road that's what really surprised me I didn't see them doing that again I thought they might beat LSU that was a tough one for me to pick but I thought it was going to be 11- one or 10- two they go 12-0 so definitely proved a lot Record Projection of people wrong last year and so this is the the scale that we use to do this projection if it's less than 20 or over 80 those are games where I think the spread will be a 16 17 plus points games that are almost guaranteed wins 20 to 29 71 to 80 those are games where I think the spread will be double digits 10 to 15 maybe in that range 30 to 39 61 to 70 games where I think spread will be about a touchdown 6 7 8 n points and then the the 40 to 60 range those are your 5050 games games where I think the spread will be you know less than a touchdown five or less something in that range but we do have a tier system that we use here so it's not really about the spreads uh let's get into it here and we'll start with the easy wins you've only got one and that's another thing that makes this schedule tough yeah there's a lot of games where they're going to be favored by double digits but there's not you know other than Charleston Southerners is there a game on the schedule you can point to and say yeah that's a win that's a guaranteed win no chance they lose you know I'm looking at Memphis and Cal you know some of these games that they should win but there there's no guarantee and they're going to have a lot of roster turnover so we really don't know how good this team's going to be I did put them in that second tier so they're a tier 2 team in my opinion right now you've got Boston College Memphis Cal and North Carolina I've got all these in the blue I think playing at home against these teams they should be favored by a couple touchdowns 14 points in that range so would be very surprised if they lost to any of these games but they could again upsets happen but good news is they're all at home so I would be very surprised again if they were to lose one of these games usually you see those big upsets happen on the road and then you go to the games here in the purple where I think they'll be favored by about a touchdown Georgia Tech again in Ireland first game of the season Georgia Tech team and program that seems to be getting better and better building some momentum uh that could be a difficult game right there but I do think Florida state will be favored by about a touchdown now SMU on the road could be a tricky game Duke on the road I haven't really done a ton of research on Duke just yet it's only February that one might turn out being more of a blue type game we'll see Florida because it's a rivalry game we've got that one here as well so those four games all uh games that Florida State should win should be favored in but would not be surprised at all if there was an upset somewhere in there maybe even a couple of upsets in those two in those four games because they will be difficult in my opinion so then you go to Clemson Miami and Notre Dame those are your 50/50 games you get a projection of eight and four um that's how it comes out with the formula so if you're wondering you know we we average all these games out based off of those percentages and that's the the projection we get doesn't mean they're going to lose to Clemson Miami and Notre Dame it just means that you know they might lose a couple of those games then lose to a couple of games in the purple or maybe they slip up and lose one of these games in the blue however you get there you average everything out and again that's the projection so a pretty low projection for Florida State coming off of an undefeated season I don't really see that happening I think this team is at least N9 and three but it is a difficult schedule and it has that that uh group there from duke to Notre Dame that's going to be difficult it's got SMU and Clemson back to back could be difficult a game in Ireland a game against your rival Florida I I just I think this is a tougher schedule than than people are probably going to to think because of the way the game set up and everything but yeah 8 and4 that's the projection not my prediction we'll do predictions much later uh but a very early projection for Florida city is 8 and4 I that means I think the the over under probably for this team is like eight and a half we'll see I don't think those have come out yet but that's probably about where that number is going to be because our projections usually line up uh with those over under so 8 and four the projection Florida State that'd be a very disappointing season do you guys agree or disagree give me your thoughts on the simol down in the comments below