while all the drivers and everyone in the NASCAR industry is off on vacation and probably not stoping until they get to Tijana this helicopter I wanted to say that we still have a playoff battle that is still heating up with four weeks to go in the Nascar Cup series regular season and with that we have five drivers currently that are either currently in on points or very close to being in on points and today I want want to look at them and anyone else who could pop off in the next 4 weeks and just see what would the NASCAR playoffs be looking like if we're going off of different stats and other things like that so let's get on into it starting out we'll look at probably the easiest lock of all the guys that are above the cut line right now with Martin TX Jr who is currently 108 points up on bubba Wallace in the cut line battle he would have to lose 27 points per race to be beat by Bubba Wallace to get into the playoffs and if it's anybody else at that point they would probably be having bad runs too so he should be pretty Safe and Lock in probably in the next two or three races and with that so far this series had four top fives and nine top 10s he's been pretty solid but since Darlington he's only had two top 10s in 10 races and he's lost 32 points to Bubba Wallace in that time like I said though should be safe thanks to his early season her heroics after that we got Ty Gibbs the teammate of Martin shx Jr Gibbs currently is 42 points up on the cutline as of now which would mean he'd lose 10 to 11 points per race if he were to fall out of it and with that as well he has a very similar statline to Martin shx Jr except for one more top five but the last eight races he's averaged around a 20th Place finish and when it's with the RAC is to come as well Richmond he finished 16th earlier year and when it came to the super Speedways of Dayton and Talladega he finished 17th and 22nd respectively he has plenty of speed this year he has no problem leading laps and all in all he has been up there with his teammates for most of the season the problem is engine issues and other different issues and bad luck that has been plaguing his sophomore year if Gibbs in that 54 team can just finish 15th Place the rest of the way on average he probably will be pretty good to make it now getting closer to that crunch line we have Chris busher driver of the 17 up by 17 he'd have to give up four to five points per race give or take to fall below the cut line which is not very many especially when you look at the swings that stages can bring he has been hot and cold it's been his season pretty much for the good part of all year and since Gateway he's had three top fives at Soma New Hampshire and Nashville three vet vastly different tracks three vastly different races he's also had two of 20th or worst but no lower than 22nd so his floor is a lot higher than others but so far his ceiling has not been reached to much he's not had a dnf since Las Vegas so he's been able to take care of his equipment that will definitely help and when you look at what he did at these tracks coming up last year he won at Richmond Michigan and Daytona and the off race of these four tracks would be Darlington where he finished third Bucher probably at least track record-wise in recent history is the biggest lock when it comes to performance at least you would think the last man in as of now is Ross Chastain seven points to the good and at this point it's virtually a wash when it comes to the cut line itself for Chastain and Bubba Wallace this year has been a huge downturn for the driver of the one car the melan man only has two top fives on the year and the season can be I think summarized by the simple sentence he left too many points on the table I'm looking immediately at Nashville in Texas where he was competing for the win and was nowhere near the top of the board in the finishing order he has lost 86 points in the last four races to Bubba Wallace he's been a complete freef Fall Nashville he finished 33rd 22nd at Chicago Pocono he had 36th and Indianapolis 15th this driver and and this team is not in playoff mode right now and if they don't fix anything during the Olympic break they will be watching the playoffs from the outside the lone man who can make it it on points that's on the outside right now is seven points out for Bubba Wallace like I said pretty much a wash with Ross Chastain and he did have a midsummer slump punctuated by a bad 34th Place finish in New Hampshire but since then he has been Rock Solid and Nashville 7th Chicago 13th Pocono 10th and Indianapolis he got a top five and Fifth and when you look at how he did in 2023 a 12th at Richmond 18th at Michigan 12th at Daytona and seventh at Darlington that might be enough to beat the floundering Ross Chastain but it might not be enough to beat the likes of say Chris busher or Ty Gibbs bubble wace definitely is still going to have to up their performance just a little bit more to feel safe to be in the playoffs right now but overall he has done a masterful job with his team of turning this season around and this team in its history has been a second half team and driver and as of now they are well on Pace for their best season ever so all things looking good for driver 23 but those are the ones that on points could still make it in or fall out but what about the guys who just have to win to get in who should we watch for and what storylines should we watch for well starting out of course you got to say Kyle Bush I know that it's not been very good RCR has been really really bad but Kyle bus is still one of the most talented drivers in NASCAR history but he's had a summer from Hell in the last eight races five of which he did not even finish and well he could always turn it on but I'm not really betting on it maybe has a pop up somewhere there's also the shr drivers these drivers and these cars seem to come to life on the shorter tracks and guys like Gregson and Barry and I would even say Brisco can just pop off randomly in different races and compete for the win so you need to watch out for them as well especially since shr basically is a lame duck team with a bunch of lame duck drivers and well lame duck staff at that you're going to have a lot of people wanting to go out there and win just for the pride of doing so not even for the playoffs and they're probably if the opportunity presents itself going to go completely buck wild with strategy or anything else like that somebody else who's going to be on the move next year who I think could be someone to watch is Michael McDow Michael McDow is one of the top Super Speedway Racers not only of Ford or The Outsiders looking in right now but of all in the cup series he was the guy who was leading into the trioval in the last lap of Talladega this year and he has been up front for the vast majority of super speedway races since the start of the decade there's no reason to think Michael McDow won't compete at Daytona if he's not collected in a wreck or have a problem uh the Fords in general are gaining a ton of momentum recently and they will be especially good at the super Speedways and especially good at Darlington and Richmond the shorter tracks of the upcoming ones Michigan's the only one that I worry about with them but well they could still win it as shown by Ryan blay at Pocono the Toyotas as well they have been the top manufacturer of 2024 and it's not really even close Daytona and Richmond are definitely ones I'm watching but they could win anywhere and it's any of these guys who could do so so to finish out I'll give you my picks for the last four guys to qualify in I don't think we're going to have any new winners so I'm going to go with the safe bets of Martin shrex Jr and Ty Gibbs making it in I also think that Bubba Wallace has been doing well enough and 2311 historically does well enough this time of year for him to make it in actually relatively safely as long as nothing stupid happens which leaves the battle between Chris busher and Ross Chastain two guys going into the playoffs last year that many consider to be Championship threats one of which will not be racing for one this year and my pick on that is Ross Chastain being out I think Chris Bucher is going to beat him in but that's just my thoughts who are your four picks to make it in let me know down in the comments below while you're edit leave a like on this video share this video And subscribe to this this channel for more great and fun NASCAR content thank you so much to all my channel members for your continued support and until next time have a good [Music] [Music] one spe