welcome back today we will talk about the 2024 US presidential election is fast approaching and as the political climate heats up many are wondering who will claim the White House one man Alan lickman has captured the attention of political analysts and voters alike why because he has correctly predicted the outcome of nine out of the last 10 US presidential elections now he's made his call for 2024 and his pick is vice president kamla Harris so who is Alan Litman and what method does he use to predict elections let's dive into his background and explore the famous 13 keys that have helped him forecast elections for nearly four decades who is Alan Litman Allan lickman isn't your typical political commentator he's a historian and distinguished professor at American University in Washington DC he earned his PhD in modern American history and quantitative Methods at Harvard University a background that's helped him develop a unique approach to understanding elections lickman has authored 13 books and hundreds of academic articles on History politics and voting rights and he's a frequent expert witness in civil and voting rights cases but what really sets lickman apart is his model for predicting presidential elections a model that focuses Less on polls and more on long-term political Trends unlike traditional methods that look at voter Behavior or current polling liman's method is rooted in what he calls the 13 keys to the White House what are the 13 Keys liman's 13 keys are a series of true or false questions designed to predict whether the incumbent party will retain control of the White House the model is nonpartisan and doesn't focus on individual personalities or media coverage instead it asks broader questions that reflect the overall performance of the party in power here's breakdown of the 13 Keys number one party mandate did the party and power gain House Seats during the midterm elections number two contest is the sitting president running for reelection number three incumbency is the White House Party avoiding a primary contest number four third party is there a significant third party Challenger in the race number five short-term economy is the short-term economy strong number six a long-term economy has economic growth been as good as the last two terms number seven a policy change has the White House Party made major changes to National policy number eight social unrest is there significant social unrest during the current administration number nine is Scandal has the White House Party avoided major scandals number 10 a foreign policy failure has the White House avoided major foreign policy failures number 11 foreign policy success has the White House achieved any significant foreign policy successes number 12 incumbent Charisma is the sitting president charismatic number 13 Challenger Charisma is the Challenger uncharismatic for the party in power to retain the White House at least eight of these Keys need to be in their favor how the keys apply to 2024 now let's apply these keys to the 2024 presidential race according to Alan liman eight of the keys favor the current Democratic Administration and vice president Kamala Harris is his pick for the next president but what does this mean in Practical terms for Harris key factors like the absence of a significant third party Challenger the lack of a primary contest within the Democratic party and the absence of a major scandal in the Biden Administration all work in her favor economic growth while not as robust as in some past administrations has been steady enough to tip the long-term economy key in her favor as well on the flip side the Republican Challenger Donald Trump benefits from three keys his strong Charisma the potential for economic discontent in the short term and the possibility of foreign policy issues arising for the Biden Administration according to his model it would leave Harris with eight positive keys and Trump with five just shy of the threshold for a republican win liman's track record you might wonder how accurate is Alan lickman really his track record speaks for itself he's predicted every US presidential election winers since 1984 with only one exception the 2000 race between George W bush and Al Gore in that election although Gore won the popular vote the controversial Supreme Court decision in Florida ultimately handed the presidency to Bush even then liman's model predicted the popular vote underscoring the difference between the electoral process and the popular vote in the US system liman's method is often lauded for its focus on the structural dynamics of Elections rather than the day-to-day fluctuations in polls or media narratives he emphasizes that elections are less about the individual candidates and more about the broader conditions surrounding them whether the country is at peace how the economy is performing and whether the ruling party has made significant policy changes why Harris so why does lickman believe kamla Harris is positioned to win in 2024 the answer lies in the keys first Harris benefits from incumbency while President Biden may or may not be the Democratic nominee Harris represents continuity for the party she's also relatively free of scandals a key factor that has sunk many candidates in the past additionally Harris's status as the first woman of color to serve as vice president gives her a unique position in American political history if she can mobilize the Democratic base and maintain support among key demographic groups the election could tip in her favor according to liman's model Trump's chances despite liman's prediction favoring Harris Donald Trump remains a formidable candidate his Charisma as lickman points out is a powerful asset Trump has a loyal following and has managed to defy conventional political wisdom time and time again he's also capitalized on dissatisfaction with the economy and social unrest issues that resonate with a significant portion of the electorate but the keys don't add up in Trump's favor according to litman's analysis even if the foreign policy keys were to flip it wouldn't be enough to secure him the presidency at least not by liman's Method conclusion at the end of the day liman's prediction is based on historical patterns and broader Trends not on moment to moment polling while his track record is impressive no model is foolproof the 2024 election like every election will ultimately be decided by the voters so as lickman himself says the outcome is up to you his prediction May point to Kamala Harris but the final decision will be made by millions of Americans casting their votes whether you agree with his forecast or not one thing is certain every vote counts