Nate silver has released his new prediction model for the 2024 US presidential election the model shows the race to 270 electoral votes and uses a very high certainty threshold we start the analysis by identifying safe states where both candidates have a 99% or higher probability of winning before we move on to our map only 6% of people who watch the video subscribe you can support us by subscribing to our Channel and turn on the notification Bell to stay up to date with the latest videos in the 2024 US presidential election forecast we look at the safe states of Kamala Harris and Donald Trump for Harris only California on the west coast looks safe while Hawaii is not in this category also safe for Harris or Illinois New York Vermont Massachusetts Maryland the District of colia and the first district of Maine Trump is Utah Wyoming Idaho North and South Dakota she leads strongly in most of Nebraska except her second district Kansas Oklahoma Mississippi Arkansas Louisiana Alabama Tennessee Kentucky West Virginia and Indiana in this initial assessment when safe states are taken into account Harris has an advantage of 129 electoral votes to Trump's 103 when evalu ating Nate silver and 538 election forecasts it is important to consider the organization's track record historically they take a left-leaning approach in their analysis in the 2020 elections despite giving Donald Trump only a 10% chance of winning he outperformed expectations similarly in the 2016 elections they gave Hillary Clinton a 71% chance of winning predicting that she would win the upper Midwestern states in including North Carolina and Florida but she failed in these states this track record shows that Nate silver and 538 tend to consistently underestimate Donald Trump's electoral performance now let's look at the likely states which are the regions where candidates have an 80% to 99% chance of winning likely States for kamla Harris include Washington and Oregon Hawaii is also considered a likely Blue State but the Biden administration's handling of the Maui fires has made it more competitive than in the past Colorado and New Mexico are also likely blue States but New Mexico falls into this category by a slim margin Minnesota is seen as a likely Blue State due to the influence of Governor Tim Walls in the Northeast Connecticut and Rhode Island are trending in favor of Harris but they are not solidly blue all of Maine New Jersey and Delaware are also likely blue States but not as liberal leaning as Maryland or Massachusetts Virginia ranks last among the likely blue states with 13 electoral votes Virginia Which elected a republican Governor three years ago has recently seen Trump surge in the polls for the moment Virginia is still a likely Blue State Montana Mississippi South Carolina and Alaska Stand Out Among the states that are considered likely for Donald Trump in the Midwest Iowa and Ohio are among the likely States for Trump these two states once known as swing states have trended markedly Republican in recent years won by Barack Obama in 2012 they experienced a major shift under Trump in 2016 in the gubernatorial elections in 2022 Republican candidates won by a 20o margin proving that this trend is continuing Florida is among the most likely States for Trump with 30 electoral votes it was once one of the most contested states in the US as seen in the 201 and 2012 elections the election results were decided by very small margins however Trump's unexpected victory in 2016 and his repeat success by an even larger margin in 2020 signaled a significant shift in the state's political orientation Florida is no longer considered a traditional Battleground State the Republicans complete control control of the state legislature and the governorship Ronda sanz's re-election in 2022 by a 20% margin and the Republicans control of both Senate seats clearly Define the state's political landscape Republicans have won the state of Texas continuously since 1976 although there has been a leftward trend in the state in recent years it seems unlikely that Democrats will win this large and deeply Republican state in the short term in the like category for Trump we will look at the lean category where candidates have a 60% to 80% chance of winning in the Northeast New Hampshire looks like a slight favorite for kamla Harris in 2016 Hillary Clinton won the state by less than zero 5% while Joe Biden won by a more significant margin of 7% in 2020 Harris's performance is expected to be somewhere in between these two results Nebraska second congressional district is also lean blue this District which Biden won by seven points in 2020 went to Trump in 2016 Maine's second district stands out among the states evaluated in the lean category for Donald Trump in the sun Bel region North Carolina stands out as an important lean state for Trump with 16 electoral votes this state is expected to go to Trump for the third time in a row Trump won North Carolina by a about four points in 2016 and by a small margin in 2020 it is unlikely that this state which Democrats have won only once since 1976 with Barack Obama in 2008 will return to the Democrats in 2024 Georgia and Arizona have been highly competitive in the last two election Cycles in the 2020 elections despite extraordinary circumstances such as the global pandemic and economic difficulties Trump's very close results in these states suggest that his chances of winning under normal conditions are high Arizona's 11 electoral votes and Georgia's 16 electoral votes played a critical role in Biden's 2020 Victory if Biden had lost these two states and Wisconsin he would have lost the election the remaining four states will be in the Tilt category for both candidates in these states both candidates have less than a 60% chance of winning meaning the results are highly uncertain and could swing either way Nevada is a state where Donald Trump is a slight favorite in this category with six electoral votes Trump has never won Nevada before losing by 2% in 2016 and 2020 Trump's win in Nevada where no Republican candidate has won since George W bush could be an important turning point however for Trump to win the presidency he needs to win at least one of Wisconsin Michigan and Pennsylvania camela Harris has to win all three states Wisconsin is an important state with 10 electoral electorates the main reason why Wisconsin is currently seen as more left-leaning than Pennsylvania is that kamla Harris has chosen Tim Walls the new governor of Minnesota as her vice presidential running mate this choice is expected to have a positive impact on Wisconsin Minnesota's neighbor however Wisconsin's 10 electoral votes will not be enough for har to reach the 270 electoral votes needed for the presidency Harris will also need to win Pennsylvania one of the toughest States for her Pennsylvania is Joe Biden's home state so Biden had an advantage here in Biden's absence Donald Trump seems more likely to win the Keystone State Pennsylvania's 19 electoral electorates could bring Trump to a total of 287 electorates this is a critical number that could pave the way to the presidency for Trump the state of Wisconsin still has the potential to swing to the Republican party but as it stands Nate Silver's updated 2024 election forecast shows Donald Trump as the favorite with 287 electoral votes to Harris's 2041 share your thoughts on the November elections in the comments you can like and comment on our video also don't forget to subscribe and turn on the notification Bell if you are not subscribed I